Logistics real estate investment and leasing activity could see declines in 2023 as a “moderate recession” begins to bite, but inflation will likely recede by year end and well-capitalized investors still will be able to make deals, according to a forecast from the real estate firm CBRE.
Across the broader economy, recession-related trends in 2023 could include declining home prices and retail sales as well as rising unemployment. Yet that recession likely will be moderate, given that corporate balance sheets are relatively strong, household debt is relatively low, and inflation is expected to ease, CBRE said in its “2023 U.S. Real Estate Outlook.”
The firm’s report forecasts that in the coming year, rising vacancies will benefit occupiers, inflation will recede, construction-cost increases will moderate, and office users will favor higher-quality space. Taking a more specific look at commercial real estate, CBRE predicted a widening of the gap between top-tier and lower-tier assets in the office sector, slower leasing momentum in the once-surging industrial & logistics and life sciences sectors, and a continued resurgence of retail properties.
“Most areas of the U.S. economy are not as overextended as in past downturns,” Richard Barkham, CBRE’s Global Chief Economist and Global Head of Research, said in a release. “Next year won’t be pleasant, but neither will it be a disaster like the Global Financial Crisis. The economy will stabilize and start to improve in 2024. The recovery from there might surprise on the upside.”
CBRE also forecasted 2023 conditions for the industrial and logistics sector in particular, saying that U.S. industrial leasing activity is expected to moderate as occupiers delay expansion plans and the post-pandemic need to hold additional inventory dissipates. But despite the slowdown, demand will keep up with supply in 2023, with a 13th consecutive year of positive net absorption, a near record-low vacancy rate, and solid rent growth.
The forces supporting demand for industrial space in 2023 will include e-commerce growth, supply chain transformation, and location optimization, CBRE said. Leading occupiers are expected to focus on markets with strong population growth and modern distribution space to ensure quick delivery of online orders.
Demand will also be led by third party logistics providers (3PLs), as companies outsource at a greater clip to avoid a lack of inventory, labor shortages, rising transportation costs, and other supply chain challenges, CBRE said.
This story first appeared in the September/October issue of Supply Chain Xchange, a journal of thought leadership for the supply chain management profession and a sister publication to AGiLE Business Media & Events’' DC Velocity.
For the trucking industry, operational costs have become the most urgent issue of 2024, even more so than issues around driver shortages and driver retention. That’s because while demand has dropped and rates have plummeted, costs have risen significantly since 2022.
As reported by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), every cost element has increased over the past two years, including diesel prices, insurance premiums, driver rates, and trailer and truck payments. Operating costs increased beyond $2.00 per mile for the first time ever in 2022. This trend continued in 2023, with the total marginal cost of operating a truck rising to $2.27 per mile, marking a new record-high cost. At the same time, the average spot rate for a dry van was $2.02 per mile, meaning that trucking companies would lose $0.25 per mile to haul a dry van load at spot rates.
These high costs have placed a significant burden on the operations of trucking companies, challenging their financial sustainability over the last two years. As a result, 2023 saw approximately 8,000 brokers and 88,000 trucking companies cease operations, including some marquee names, such as Yellow Corp. and Convoy, and decades-long businesses, such as Matheson Trucking and Arnold Transportation Services.
More so than ever before, trucking companies need to get better at efficiently using their assets and reducing operational costs. So, what is a trucking company to do? Technology is the answer! Given the nature of the problem, technology-led innovation will be critical to ensure companies can balance rising costs through efficient operations.
One technology that could be the answer to many of the trucking industry’s issues is the concept of digital twins. A digital twin is a virtual model of a real system and simulates the physical state and behavior of the real system. As the physical system changes state, the digital twin keeps up with the real-world changes and provides predictive and decision-making capabilities built on top of the digital model.
DHL, in a 2023 white paper, suggests that—due to the maturation of technologies such as the internet of things (IoT), cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), advanced software engineering paradigms, and virtual reality—digital twins have “come of age” and are now viable across multiple sectors, including transportation. We agree with this assessment and believe that digital twins are essential to radically improving the processes of fleet planning and dispatch.
THE NEED TO AUTOMATE
Outside of attaining procurement efficiencies, trucking companies can achieve lower costs by focusing on critical operational levers such as minimizing deadheads, reducing driver dwell time, and maximizing driver and asset utilization.
However, manual methods of planning and dispatch cannot optimally balance these levers to achieve efficiency and cost control. Even when planners work very hard and owners strive to improve processes, optimizing fleet planning is not a problem humans can solve routinely. Planning is a computationally intensive activity. To achieve fleet-level efficiencies, the planner has to consider all possible truck-to-load combinations in real time and solve for many operational constraints such as drivers’ hours of service, customer windows, and driver home time, to name just a few. These computations become even more complex when you add in the dynamic nature of real-world conditions such as trucks getting stuck in traffic or breaking down or orders getting delayed. This is not a task humans do best! For these sorts of tasks, technology has the upper hand.
When a company creates a digital twin of its trucking network, it has a real-time model that factors in truck locations, drivers’ hours of service, and loads being executed and planned. Planners can then use this digital model to assess possible decisions and select ones that increase asset utilization, improve customer and driver satisfaction, and lower costs.
For example, a digital twin of the network can offer significant insights and analysis on the state of the network, including exceptions such as delayed pickups and deliveries, unassigned loads, and trucks needing assignments. Backed by AI that takes business rules into account, digital twins can allow companies to optimize their fleet performance by finding the most efficient load assignments and dynamically adjusting in real time to changes in traffic patterns and weather, customer delays, truck issues, and so on.
With a digital twin, carriers can optimize the matching of assets, drivers, and freight. Typically, an investment in this innovative technology results in a 20%+ increase in productive miles per truck, while also improving driver pay and significantly decreasing driver churn. Drivers get paid by the miles they run, so when they run more, they are able to make more money, resulting in less need to chase the next job in search of better pay.
ADDITIONAL BENEFITS
Digital twins also combat deadheading, another source of driver dissatisfaction and cost inefficiencies. On average, over-the-road drivers spend 17%–20% of road miles driving empty. Using a digital twin, a company can search across several freight sources to find a load that perfectly matches the deadhead leg without impacting downstream commitments. These additional revenue miles will help drivers to maximize their earnings on the road and carriers to maximize their asset utilization and profitability.
The traditional manual dispatch planning model is becoming increasingly outdated—each planner and fleet manager tasked with overseeing 30 to 40 vehicles. Carriers try to manage this problem by dividing the fleet into manageable chunks, which results in cross-fleet inefficiencies. Such a system isn’t scalable. A digital twin acts as an equalizer for small and mid-sized fleets. It enables carriers to expand by venturing beyond the fixed routes and network they were forced to run out of fear of additional logistical complexity.
A digital twin can also give an organization the transparency and visibility it needs to find and fix inefficiencies. A successful carrier will leverage the technology to learn from the hitches in its operations. While this visibility is beneficial in its own right, it also provides the first step toward a seamless, digitized operation. “Digital revolution” is a buzzword frequently heard at transportation conferences. Yet not too many organizations are dedicated to digitizing their operations past the visibility stage. The end goal should be using decision-support systems to automate key elements of the system, thus freeing up planners from their daily rote tasks to focus on problems that only humans can solve.
Finally incorporating a digital twin can also help trucking companies work toward the broader trend of creating greener supply chains. Because they have lower deadhead and dwell times, trucking companies that have adopted a digital twin can be more attractive to shippers that are looking for more efficient operations that meet their environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals.
THE FUTURE IS HERE
It is important to note that the benefits described here are not dreams for the future; digital twin technology is already here. In fact, choosing a digital twin can seem daunting because there are already a spectrum of options out there. First and foremost, an organization must ensure that the digital twin it selects aligns with both the goals and the scope of its operation.
Additionally, the ideal digital twin should:
Operate in near real time. A digital twin should be able to refresh as often as the network changes.
Be able to factor in specific customer delivery requirements as well as asset- and operator-specific constraints.
Be computationally efficient and comprehensive as it considers thousands of permutations in milliseconds. The digital twin should be able to reoptimize an entire fleet’s schedule of multi-day routes on the fly.
Before implementing a digital twin, carriers need to make sure that they have robust data management processes in place. Electronic logging devices (ELDs), customers’ tenders, billing, shipments, and so on are already inundating carriers with a glut of data. However, the manual nature of operations in many carriers leads to poor data quality. Carriers will need to invest in data management approaches to improve data quality to support the generation and use of high-fidelity digital twins. Otherwise, the digital twin will not be representative of reality and companies will run into an issue of “garbage in, garbage out.”
REINVENTION AND TRANSFORMATION
While data management is critical, change management through the ranks of dispatch operations is often a harder task. In fact, the largest roadblock carriers face when undergoing a digital transformation is the lack of willingness to change, not the technology itself. Many carriers cling to outmoded planning methods. Planners, used to operating based on well-worn business rules and tribal knowledge, could be wary of the technology and resistant to change. They may need to be assured that, while it is true that every trucking network is uniquely complex, digital twins can be set up to model the intricacies of their specific dispatch operations and drive value to the network. A significant amount of time and resources will need to be expended on change management. Otherwise even though trucking companies may invest in cutting-edge technology, they won't be able to fully capitalize on the added value it can provide.
As the truckload industry works through the current freight cycle, it is important to realize that change is inevitable. Carriers will need to reinvent their operations and invest in technologies to ride through the busts and booms of future freight cycles. Recent global events point to the many ways that wrenches can be thrown into global transportation networks, and the fact that such volatility is here to stay. Digital twins can provide companies with the visibility to navigate such changes. But above all, an operation that uses the digital twin to drive decisions can make customers and drivers happy, and help the carriers keep their heads above water during times such as now.
Regular online readers of DC Velocity and Supply Chain Xchange have probably noticed something new during the past few weeks. Our team has been working for months to produce shiny new websites that allow you to find the supply chain news and stories you need more easily.
It is always good for a media brand to undergo a refresh every once in a while. We certainly are not alone in retooling our websites; most of you likely go through that rather complex process every few years. But this was more than just your average refresh. We did it to take advantage of the most recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI).
Most of the AI work will take place behind the scenes. We will not, for instance, use AI to generate our stories. Those will still be written by our award-winning editorial team (I realize I’m biased, but I believe them to be the best in the business). Instead, we will be applying AI to things like graphics, search functions, and prioritizing relevant stories to make it easier for you to find the information you need along with related content.
We have also redesigned the websites’ layouts to make it quick and easy to find articles on specific topics. For example, content on DC Velocity’s new site is divided into five categories: material handling, robotics, transportation, technology, and supply chain services. We also offer a robust video section, including case histories, webcasts, and executive interviews, plus our weekly podcasts.
Over on the Supply Chain Xchange site, we have organized articles into categories that align with the traditional five phases of supply chain management: plan, procure, produce, move, and store. Plus, we added a “tech” category just to round it off. You can also find links to our videos, newsletters, podcasts, webcasts, blogs, and much more on the site.
Our mobile-app users will also notice some enhancements. An increasing number of you are receiving your daily supply chain news on your phones and tablets, so we have revamped our sites for optimal performance on those devices. For instance, you’ll find that related stories will appear right after the article you’re reading in case you want to delve further into the topic.
However you view us, you will find snappier headlines, more graphics and illustrations, and sites that are easier to navigate.
I would personally like to thank our management, IT department, and editors for their work in making this transition a reality. In our more than 20 years as a media company, this is our largest expansion into digital yet.
We hope you enjoy the experience.
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In this chart, the red and green bars represent Trucking Conditions Index for 2024. The blue line represents the Trucking Conditions Index for 2023. The index shows that while business conditions for trucking companies improved in August of 2024 versus July of 2024, they are still overall negative.
FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index improved in August to -1.39 from the reading of -5.59 in July. The Bloomington, Indiana-based firm forecasts that its TCI readings will remain mostly negative-to-neutral through the beginning of 2025.
“Trucking is en route to more favorable conditions next year, but the road remains bumpy as both freight volume and capacity utilization are still soft, keeping rates weak. Our forecasts continue to show the truck freight market starting to favor carriers modestly before the second quarter of next year,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release.
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Combined into a single index, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions, and a negative score shows the opposite.
A coalition of truckers is applauding the latest round of $30 million in federal funding to address what they call a “national truck parking crisis,” created when drivers face an imperative to pull over and stop when they cap out their hours of service, yet can seldom find a safe spot for their vehicle.
According to the White House, a total of 44 projects were selected in this round of funding, including projects that improve safety, mobility, and economic competitiveness, constructing major bridges, expanding port capacity, and redesigning interchanges. The money is the latest in a series of large infrastructure investments that have included nearly $12.8 billion in funding through the INFRA and Mega programs for 140 projects across 42 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico. The money funds: 35 bridge projects, 18 port projects, 20 rail projects, and 85 highway improvement projects.
In a statement, the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association (OOIDA) said the federal funds would make a big difference in driver safety and transportation networks.
"Lack of safe truck parking has been a top concern of truckers for decades and as a truck driver, I can tell you firsthand that when truckers don’t have a safe place to park, we are put in a no-win situation. We must either continue to drive while fatigued or out of legal driving time, or park in an undesignated and unsafe location like the side of the road or abandoned lot,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a release. “It forces truck drivers to make a choice between safety and following federal Hours-of-Service rules. OOIDA and the 150,000 small business truckers we represent thank Secretary Buttigieg and the Department for their increased focus on resolving an issue that has plagued our industry for decades.”
Robotic technology has been sweeping through warehouses nationwide as companies seek to automate repetitive tasks in a bid to speed operations and free up human labor for other activities. Many of those implementations have been focused on picking tasks, a trend driven largely by the need to fill accelerating e-commerce orders. But as the robotic-picking market matures and e-commerce growth levels off, the robotic revolution is shifting behind the picking lines, with many companies investing in pallet-handling robots as a way to keep efficiency gains coming.
“Earlier in this decade and the previous decade, we [saw] a lot of [material handling] transformation around e-commerce and the handling of goods to order,” explains Josh Kivenko, chief marketing officer and senior vice president at Vecna Robotics, which provides autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) for pallet handling and logistics operations. “Now we’re talking about pallets—moving material in bulk behind that line.”
Kivenko explains that whether items are being packaged and shipped directly to a customer’s home address or moved as finished goods to a shipping bay for store delivery, those items are first moved in bulk in some way, often by human hands and with human-operated equipment. He describes warehouses as chaotic environments in which humans move pallets and cartons in multiple ways—up and down, side to side, from receiving to storage, from storage to shipping, or via cross-docking. Automation can help bring order to that chaos.
“What we’re trying to do is relieve some of the pressure [on the] humans [doing] this work,” Kivenko says of companies that develop pallet-handling robotic technologies. “At the end of the day, we’re trying to automate some of those flows, relieve labor pressure, save costs, and keep the goods flowing.”
But automated pallet handling isn’t right for every situation, so it’s important to understand the warehouse conditions required and the protocols and best practices needed to make it a win. Here are some guidelines for applying pallet-handling robots and gaining the most from your investment.
FIRST, UNDERSTAND THE TECHNOLOGY
Pallet-handling robots fall into four general categories, explains Rich O’Connor, vice president of storage and automation for Raymond West Group, a business unit of lift truck manufacturer The Raymond Corp. They include:
Palletizing/depalletizing robots, which are used to load or unload items onto and off of pallets, usually with the use of a robotic arm for picking and placing. Today, these systems are being increasingly integrated with automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS) to further streamline pallet handling in the warehouse, O’Connor explains.
Autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) and autonomous mobile robots (AMRs), which are used to transport pallets within the warehouse. Often outfitted with lift decks or conveyors, or designed to tug or tow items, these robots move pallets from point A to B within a facility. AGVs, which often follow a marked guide-path or wire in the floor, have been around for many years, but the advent of high-performance guidance and vision systems is allowing them more flexibility today, O’Connor says. AMRs are self-guided vehicles that use software and sensors to navigate their way through the warehouse.
Forklift AGVs and AMRs, which can move products both horizontally, from place to place, and vertically, into and out of storage racks. They come in various styles—including stackers, counterbalanced trucks, reach trucks, and even very narrow aisle (VNA) vehicles for use in densely packed warehouses. These vehicles are more complex than those used only for horizontal transport, O’Connor explains. They must be “highly integrated” into the facility’s warehouse management system (WMS) or warehouse execution system (WES) so that they know precisely where to retrieve and deliver pallets within the facility.
Robotic pallet shuttles, which move pallets into, out of, and within dense storage racking. The Raymond Corp. describes such a system as “a standalone, automated deep-lane pallet storage system that utilizes self-powered shuttle carriages to move pallets toward the back or front in a racking channel. Shuttles are motor driven and travel along rails within a storage lane.”
O’Connor and others say that no matter which of these technologies you’re investing in, it’s important to remember that they are all part of a larger system designed to optimize operations throughout the warehouse.
“The expanding role of all these different styles working together is what’s amazing today,” O’Connor says.
SECOND, ENSURE THE TECHNOLOGY IS A FIT
Kivenko, of Vecna, also emphasizes the importance of pallet-handling robots working in concert, particularly AMRs and AGVs.
“The magic isn’t just that the robots are autonomous and driving by themselves. The magic is multiple robots—when you have a [whole integrated] system [in place],” he says. “[It’s] how the fleet operates autonomously and optimizes itself for continuous improvement. That’s where the exponential gains are. [It’s] not just about automating what a worker does; it’s about automating a system.”
But you can’t install these systems in just any warehouse and expect magic. Kivenko and others point to certain conditions that enable the best robotic pallet-handling outcomes, especially when it comes to transportation-based and forklift-type AMRs and AGVs.
“The robots that I sell are large-load machines with very expensive technology,” Kivenko explains. “They move material, generally, in larger facilities. And in order for them to produce a return [on investment]—because that’s the name of the game here—they have to be higher-velocity facilities.”
He says pallet-handling robots work best in large facilities running multiple shifts, usually more than five days a week. Wider aisles allow the equipment to move more freely through the facility and at higher speeds, to optimize efficiency and productivity. Strong Wi-Fi networks and clean, dry environments also help keep equipment running at top performance.
O’Connor agrees that pallet-handling robots are best suited to facilities with multishift operations, where they can ease labor constraints and boost productivity. And he says many customers are willing to extend the typical two- to three-year ROI period to five years in order to achieve those gains. But there is even more to it than that. O’Connor’s colleague John Rosenberger says customers must first step back and analyze their processes to ensure that, even if they have the right facility for pallet-handling AMRs or AGVs, they are moving material in the most efficient way to begin with.
“Many times, we find that the processes in place [are inefficient],” says Rosenberger, who is director of iWarehouse Gateway and global telematics for The Raymond Corp. He emphasizes the importance of analyzing existing data—from an equipment telematics system or similar—to determine the best path toward automation.
“Do you have congestion zones now?” he asks. “They’ll still exist if you automate [those processes exactly].”
THIRD, MAKE SIMPLICITY A PRIORITY
Another basic rule of thumb when implementing pallet-handling robotics: Keep it simple.
Andy Lockhart, director of strategic engagement for global warehouse and logistics process automation company Vanderlande, says that when designing a pallet-handling robotics system, “you want to minimize the processes you [automate]. When you can create [an automated system] that focuses on one task—for example, AMRs delivering pallets from a high-bay [storage rack] directly to the palletizing cell—you can do that efficiently and effectively. When you ask the AMR to do this and this and this … you are adding risk of failure.”
Lockhart’s colleague Jake Heldenberg advises customers to first test their target processes via pilot programs within the warehouse or DC. Heldenberg is Vanderlande’s head of solution design, warehousing, North America.
“If AGVs or AMRs for pallet handling are interesting [to a customer], the best thing to do is pilot one or two in an existing DC,” he says, explaining that the process can help companies troubleshoot, understand integration timelines, and gauge ROI. But pilot programs can add expense to a project, making it unaffordable for some.
“If that’s the case, then the best advice is work with a vendor who has experience integrating [the technology],” Heldenberg says. “Use their experience to benefit your business. You won’t have the same hiccups and challenges you would with a less-experienced vendor.”