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NRF: Retail sales increased again in September
Oct 17, 2024
Retail sales increased again in September as employment grew and inflation and interest rates fell, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF)’s analysisof U.S. Census Bureau data released today.
“While there have been some signs of tightening in consumer spending, September’s numbers show consumers are willing to spend where they see value,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs. Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season.”
The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in September were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 1.7% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.1% month over month and 2.2% year over year in August.
Likewise, September’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.7% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.4% unadjusted year over year. NRF is now forecasting that 2024 holiday sales will increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
Despite those upward trends, consumer resilience isn’t a free pass for retailers to underinvest in their stores by overlooking labor, customer experience tech, or digital transformation, several analysts warned.
"The 2024 holiday season offers more ‘normalcy’ for retailers with inflation cooling. Still, there is no doubt that consumers continue to seek value. Promotions in general will play a larger role in the 2024 holiday season. Retailers are dealing with shrinking shopper loyalties, a larger number of competitors across more channels – and, of course, a more dynamic landscape where prices are shifting more frequently to win over consumers who are looking for great deals,” Matt Pavich, senior director of strategy & innovation at pricing optimization solutions provider Revionics, said in an email.
Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at retail technology company Aptos, likewise said that retailers need to keep their focus on improving their value proposition and customer experience. “Retailers aren’t just competing with other retailers when it comes to consumers’ discretionary spending. If consumers feel like the shopping experience isn’t worth their time and effort, they are going to spend their money elsewhere. A trip to Italy, a dinner out, catching the latest Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds films — there is no shortage of ways that consumers can spend their discretionary dollars,” she said.
Editor's note:This article was revised on October 18 to correct the attribution for a quote to Matt Pavich instead of Nikki Baird.
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Deloitte: clean energy transition offers opportunities
Oct 16, 2024
The clean energy transition continuing to sweep the globe will give companies in every sector the choice to either be disrupted or to capitalize on new opportunities, a sustainability expert from Deloitte said in a session today at a conference in Orlando held by the enterprise resource planning (ERP) firm IFS.
While corporate chief sustainability officers (CSOs) are likely already tracking those impacts, the truth is that they will actually affect every aspect of operations regardless of people’s role in a business, said John O’Brien, managing director of Deloitte’s sustainability and climate practice.
For example, regulatory requirements on carbon emissions are expanding in every region, which means that even if a specific company doesn’t have to change its own practices, it will almost definitely need to flex to accommodate its partners and suppliers as they track scope 3 emissions or supply chain practices.
Likewise, companies are starting to challenge the classic concept of “force majeure” events than can cancel service providers’ contractual duties due to unforeseeable weather events. As the new argument goes, extreme weather patterns increasingly occur in accordance with climate scientists’ forecasts, so those hurricanes and wildfires are in fact foreseeable after all.
But one strategy for coping with the cost of those changes is to mine the power of the data that most companies will soon need to collect as part of their evolution. Instead of simply tracking its trucks to trim their routes and emissions, a transportation company could use the same data to manage their maintenance and fuel consumption.
“The climate management transition is going to be a massive disruption, but with that comes massive opportunity,” O’Brien said from the keynote stage at the “IFS Unleashed” show. “Don’t waste compliance efforts just on compliance, use it to create new value. You’re collecting all that new data, so use it!”
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MIT: Businesses thrive more with real-time data flows
Oct 16, 2024
Companies that integrate real-time data flows into their operations consistently outperform their competitors, an MIT professor said in a session today at a conference held by IFS, the Swedish enterprise resource planning (ERP) and artificial intelligence (AI) firm.
A real-time business is one that uses trusted, real-time data to enable people and systems to make real-time decisions, Peter Weill, the chairman of MIT’s Center for Information Systems Research (CISR), said at the “IFS Unleashed” show in Orlando.
By adopting that strategy, they gain three major capabilities, he said in a session titled “Becoming a Real-Time Business: Unlocking the Transformative Power of Digital, Data, and AI.” They are:
- business model agility without needing a change management program to implement it
- seamless digital customer journeys via self-service, automated, or assisted multi-product, multichannel experiences
- thoughtful employee experiences enabled by technology empowered teams
And according to Weill, MIT’s studies show that adopting that real-time data stance is not restricted just to digital or tech-native businesses. Rather, it can produce successful results for companies in any sector that are able to apply the approach better than their immediate competitors.
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Business optimism is up as inflation fades
Oct 11, 2024
Global business leaders are feeling optimistic, according to a report from business data analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet showing a 7% increase in business optimism quarter-over-quarter, driven by gradual easing of inflation rates and favorable borrowing conditions.
However, that trend is counterbalanced by economic uncertainty driven by geopolitics, which is prompting many companies to diversity their supply chains, Dun & Bradstreet said in its “Q4 2024 Global Business Optimism Insights” report, which was based on research conducted during the third quarter.
“While overall global business optimism has increased and inflation has abated, it’s important to recognize that geopolitics contribute to economic uncertainty,” Neeraj Sahai, president of Dun & Bradstreet International, said in a release. “Industry-specific regulatory risks and more stringent data requirements have emerged as the top concerns among a third of respondents. To mitigate these risks, businesses are considering diversifying their supply chains and markets to manage regulatory risk.”
According to the report, nearly four in five businesses are expressing increased optimism in domestic and export orders, capital expenditures, and financial risk due to a combination of easing financial pressures, shifts in monetary policies, robust regulatory frameworks, and higher participation in sustainability initiatives.
U.S. businesses recorded a nearly 9% rise in optimism, aided by falling inflation and expectations of further rate cuts. Similarly, business optimism in the U.K. and Spain showed notable recoveries as their respective central banks initiated monetary easing, rising by 13% and 9%, respectively. Emerging economies, such as Argentina and India, saw jumps in optimism levels due to declining inflation and increased domestic demand respectively.
"Businesses are increasingly confident as borrowing costs decline, boosting optimism for higher sales, stronger exports, and reduced financial risks," Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet, said. "This confidence is driving capital investments, with easing supply chain pressures supporting growth in the year's final quarter."
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Global economy continues to slow, GEP index shows
Oct 11, 2024
The level of global supply chain spare capacity in September rose to its highest level since July 2023, revealing a trend of economic weakness, according to a monthly report from market data provider S&P Global and New Jersey-based enterprise software vendor GES.
The firms’ “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index” tracks demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses.
The rise in underutilized vendor capacity was driven by a deterioration in global demand. Factory purchasing activity was at its weakest in the year-to-date, with procurement trends in all major continents worsening in September and signaling gloomier prospects for economies heading into Q4, the report said.
According to the report, the slowing economy was seen across the major regions:
- North America factory purchasing activity deteriorates more quickly in September, with demand at its weakest year-to-date, signaling a quickly slowing U.S. economy
- Factory procurement activity in China fell for a third straight month, and devastation from Typhoon Yagi hit vendors feeding Southeast Asian markets like Vietnam
- Europe's industrial recession deepens, leading to an even larger increase in supplier spare capacity
"September is the fourth straight month of declining demand and the third month running that the world's supply chains have spare capacity, as manufacturing becomes an increasing drag on the major economies," Jagadish Turimella, president of GEP, said in a release. "With the potential of a widening war in the Middle East impacting oil, and the possibility of more tariffs and trade barriers in the new year, manufacturers should prioritize agility and resilience in their procurement and supply chains."
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