As we begin a new year, it's a good time to reflect on some of the lessons learned during 2009 so we can avoid repeating these mistakes as our economy stabilizes.
Mitch Mac Donald has more than 30 years of experience in both the newspaper and magazine businesses. He has covered the logistics and supply chain fields since 1988. Twice named one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the U.S., he has served in a multitude of editorial and publishing roles. The leading force behind the launch of Supply Chain Management Review, he was that brand's founding publisher and editorial director from 1997 to 2000. Additionally, he has served as news editor, chief editor, publisher and editorial director of Logistics Management, as well as publisher of Modern Materials Handling. Mitch is also the president and CEO of Agile Business Media, LLC, the parent company of DC VELOCITY and CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.
Rejoice! It's over. The year 2009 is behind us. You'd be hard-pressed to find a business executive who isn't thankful for that. There were few safe harbors from the economic storm that lashed the country last year —it seems every business, every employee, every part of the U.S. economic machine felt its share of the pain.
The good news is that 2010 appears to be starting off on a brighter note. The word from independent market analysts, December government reports, and you, the readers of DC Velocity, is that the economy will grow —albeit slowly —in 2010 and 2011. (See "Survey: DCs shift to recovery mode.") There's even a chance we could see a moderately robust recovery —if job growth picks up, if the housing and construction sectors bounce back quickly, and if we can avoid the inflationary perils that so often lead to a stutter-step recovery.
As we look ahead to the new year, it's a good time to reflect on some of the lessons learned during 2009 so we can avoid repeating these mistakes as our economy stabilizes.
First, don't spend beyond your means. In hindsight, we can all see what we should have collectively known but ended up learning the hard way. When it comes to managing a business, your personal finances, or even a government, overextending yourself is an invitation to catastrophe. If you can't afford something, do without. Don't borrow.
Second, keep the government out of the economy. Although the causes of the economic meltdown remain open to debate (even here amongst the editorial staffers at DC Velocity), it's clear that bad mortgages played a significant role. The politicians blame the bankers for lax lending practices, while the bankers point the finger at politicians who eased lending standards back in the 1990s. Whatever your view, it's likely we can all agree on one thing: When the government decides to step in and "fix" matters, things eventually, and invariably, go horribly wrong.
Third, while it may not always be easy to be green, it's a mistake not to try. Many companies used the economic downturn as an excuse to halt, or at least back off from, their corporate green initiatives. This is a mistake. The evidence on sustainability programs is in: Green business practices reduce waste, and thus, reduce costs, and thus, improve your bottom line. Commit now to making green a priority for your operation in the new year.
Fourth, it is important to remain vigilant for attempts at reregulation by a government that ignores history. It's common when times are tough for ordinary citizens (and the governments that work for them) to overreact. The unbridled stimulus spending that didn't really kick in until after the economy had started recovering on its own is but the most obvious example. Governments also have a tendency to overreact when it comes to regulating (or reregulating) industries. This could become a dangerous and lasting legacy of the recession of 2009, and it's a threat businesses should watch out for and fight with every means at their disposal.
Fifth and finally, remember, there is always opportunity, even in the worst of times. In the face of the recessionary storm, some companies cut costs so aggressively that they've deprived themselves of the resources they'll need to rev up for recovery. Others failed to grasp the gravity of the situation and now find themselves awash in red ink. Then there are those who maintained their balance, walking that fine line between surviving the downturn and making only those cuts that were absolutely necessary. Needless to say, these are the companies that will be ready to burst out of the gate and exploit the opportunities that a rebounding economy will no doubt present.
RJW Logistics Group, a logistics solutions provider (LSP) for consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands, has received a “strategic investment” from Boston-based private equity firm Berkshire partners, and now plans to drive future innovations and expand its geographic reach, the Woodridge, Illinois-based company said Tuesday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the company said that CEO Kevin Williamson and other members of RJW management will continue to be “significant investors” in the company, while private equity firm Mason Wells, which invested in RJW in 2019, will maintain a minority investment position.
RJW is an asset-based transportation, logistics, and warehousing provider, operating more than 7.3 million square feet of consolidation warehouse space in the transportation hubs of Chicago and Dallas and employing 1,900 people. RJW says it partners with over 850 CPG brands and delivers to more than 180 retailers nationwide. According to the company, its retail logistics solutions save cost, improve visibility, and achieve industry-leading On-Time, In-Full (OTIF) performance. Those improvements drive increased in-stock rates and sales, benefiting both CPG brands and their retailer partners, the firm says.
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain” report.
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Freight transportation sector analysts with US Bank say they expect change on the horizon in that market for 2025, due to possible tariffs imposed by a new White House administration, the return of East and Gulf coast port strikes, and expanding freight fraud.
“All three of these merit scrutiny, and that is our promise as we roll into the new year,” the company said in a statement today.
First, US Bank said a new administration will occupy the White House and will control the House and Senate for the first time since 2016. With an announced mandate on tariffs, taxes and trade from his electoral victory, President-Elect Trump’s anticipated actions are almost certain to impact the supply chain, the bank said.
Second, a strike by longshoreman at East Coast and Gulf ports was suspended in October, but the can was only kicked until mid-January. Shipper alarm bells are already ringing, and with peak season in full swing, the West coast ports are roaring, having absorbed containers bound for the East. However, that status may not be sustainable in the event of a prolonged strike in January, US Bank said.
And third, analyst are tracking the proliferation of freight fraud, and its reverberations across the supply chain. No longer the realm of petty criminals, freight fraudsters have become increasingly sophisticated, and the financial toll of their activities in the loss of goods, and data, is expected to be in the billions, the bank estimates.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
A measure of business conditions for shippers improved in September due to lower fuel costs, looser trucking capacity, and lower freight rates, but the freight transportation forecasting firm FTR still expects readings to be weaker and closer to neutral through its two-year forecast period.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR is maintaining its stance that trucking conditions will improve, even though its Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) improved in September to 4.6 from a 2.9 reading in August, reaching its strongest level of the year.
“The fact that September’s index is the strongest since last December is not a sign that shippers’ market conditions are steadily improving,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release.
“September and May were modest outliers this year in a market that is at least becoming more balanced. We expect that trend to continue and for SCI readings to be mostly negative to neutral in 2025 and 2026. However, markets in transition tend to be volatile, so further outliers are likely and possibly in both directions. The supply chain implications of tariffs are a wild card for 2025 especially,” he said.
The SCI tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. Combined into a single index, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions, while a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions.