Respondents to DC Velocity 's 2010 Outlook Survey are guardedly optimistic about the economy. But they're not easing up on their cost-cutting efforts just yet.
James Cooke is a principal analyst with Nucleus Research in Boston, covering supply chain planning software. He was previously the editor of CSCMP?s Supply Chain Quarterly and a staff writer for DC Velocity.
Many economists are telling us the recession is over, and Wall Street seems to concur. But what about those in the trenches? What do the nation's distribution professionals see for the U.S. economy in 2010?
Although the results of DC Velocity's 2010 Outlook survey were somewhat mixed, the poll revealed a generally upbeat mood. A narrow majority of the respondents —56 percent —said they were optimistic the economy would pick up steam. Another 24 percent said they remained pessimistic, and 20 percent indicated they were unsure which direction the economy would take.
The online poll was conducted in the second half of October, as the Dow Jones industrial average flirted with the 10,000 mark. A total of 267 readers filled out the questionnaire. The majority of the respondents worked for manufacturers (31 percent) or distributors (30 percent). The remainder worked for logistics service providers (19 percent), retailers (10 percent), or other types of businesses (10 percent).
Despite the generally upbeat attitude, few of the survey respondents expect the economy to come roaring back. Only 15 percent said that overall U.S. economic growth would be strong in 2010. Another 47 percent predicted weak growth, while 36 percent said business would be flat. Two percent declined to speculate.
When the respondents were asked about their own company's revenue projections for 2010, the outlook was a bit better. A full 25 percent foresaw strong sales growth, and 29 percent said they expected at least weak growth. Another 39 percent predicted that sales would be flat, while 7 percent said they were unsure about their company's revenue projections.
Exhibit 1: Keep on trucking
Despite all the talk of a rail renaissance, trucks will continue to dominate the market in 2010. When asked what types of transportation services they planned to buy, DCV's readers put LTL motor freight at the top of the list.
*Note: Survey respondents were allowed to select multiple responses
Exhibit 2: The cost-cutting continues
An economic recovery may be in the offing, but DCV's readers aren't backing off from their cost-cutting efforts just yet. When asked about their plans for trimming expenses, respondents mentioned shipment consolidation most often.
Cost-cutting action
% of respondents*
Consolidate more shipments into truckloads
42
Renegotiate rates with carriers
40
Cut back on express shipments
31
Redesign supply chain network
21
Reduce shipping frequency to customers
20
Use fewer carriers
19
Use more rail in place of truck
15
Lay off workers
11
Outsource more distribution tasks
10
Use more air in place of ocean
9
Use fewer DCs
7
Set up more DCs
6
*Note: Survey respondents were allowed to select multiple responses
Pickup in spending
Given concerns about tepid sales, it's probably no surprise that companies are being conservative in their budgeting. When asked about their spending plans for 2010, only 30 percent of the survey respondents said they expected to spend more on logistics products and services than they did in 2009. Most of the respondents —44 percent —projected that their expenditures would stay the same, while 16 percent anticipated a drop. Ten percent said they weren't sure how their 2010 spending would stack up against 2009's.
Judging from the survey responses, any increases in logistics-related spending are likely to be modest. Of those respondents who plan to up their spending in 2010, the majority —56 percent —said they expected their expenditures to increase by 3 to 5 percent over 2009 levels. About 16 percent said their spending would grow by just 1 or 2 percent, while 12 percent said they planned to increase their outlays by 5 to 9 percent. A few of the respondents were more bullish, however. Sixteen percent projected that their spending would jump by more than 10 percent.
When asked specifically about their plans for buying transportation services, 35 percent of all respondents said their 2010 expenditures would increase over 2009 levels. About 39 percent said their spending would remain the same, and 13 percent expected a decrease. Another 13 percent said they weren't sure.
As for what kinds of transportation services they plan to buy in 2010, the biggest share of the respondents —69 percent —said they expected to purchase less-than-truckload (LTL) freight service. That was followed by small-package service (65 percent) and truckload service (57 percent). (See Exhibit 1.)
When asked what types of material handling equipment they plan to invest in, 40 percent cited safety products for their distribution operations. That was followed closely by racks and shelving (39 percent) and lift trucks (37 percent).
As for software, it appears sales of warehouse management systems (WMS) will be reasonably strong in 2010. Thirty-eight percent of the respondents said they planned to purchase a WMS sometime in the next 12 months. Next on the list were transportation management systems (TMS), which were mentioned by 25 percent of the respondents. Other common responses included planning and forecasting software, and inventory planning software, which were each named by 23 percent of the survey takers.
A watchful eye on costs
Although signs of economic recovery are in the air, it appears that distribution professionals aren't backing off from their cost-cutting efforts just yet. The vast majority of respondents indicated they would continue working to trim distribution expenses in 2010. When asked what measures they planned to take, 42 percent of the survey respondents mentioned consolidating more shipments into truckloads. Forty percent said they intended to renegotiate rates with their carriers. Other common responses included cutting back on express shipments (31 percent) and redesigning the supply chain network (21 percent). (See Exhibit 2.)
While they're guardedly optimistic about the economic outlook for 2010, a significant number of respondents see at least one troubling sign on the horizon. A full 85 percent expressed concern that oil prices would head back up, which would almost certainly lead to higher freight rates.
Robotic technology has been sweeping through warehouses nationwide as companies seek to automate repetitive tasks in a bid to speed operations and free up human labor for other activities. Many of those implementations have been focused on picking tasks, a trend driven largely by the need to fill accelerating e-commerce orders. But as the robotic-picking market matures and e-commerce growth levels off, the robotic revolution is shifting behind the picking lines, with many companies investing in pallet-handling robots as a way to keep efficiency gains coming.
“Earlier in this decade and the previous decade, we [saw] a lot of [material handling] transformation around e-commerce and the handling of goods to order,” explains Josh Kivenko, chief marketing officer and senior vice president at Vecna Robotics, which provides autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) for pallet handling and logistics operations. “Now we’re talking about pallets—moving material in bulk behind that line.”
Kivenko explains that whether items are being packaged and shipped directly to a customer’s home address or moved as finished goods to a shipping bay for store delivery, those items are first moved in bulk in some way, often by human hands and with human-operated equipment. He describes warehouses as chaotic environments in which humans move pallets and cartons in multiple ways—up and down, side to side, from receiving to storage, from storage to shipping, or via cross-docking. Automation can help bring order to that chaos.
“What we’re trying to do is relieve some of the pressure [on the] humans [doing] this work,” Kivenko says of companies that develop pallet-handling robotic technologies. “At the end of the day, we’re trying to automate some of those flows, relieve labor pressure, save costs, and keep the goods flowing.”
But automated pallet handling isn’t right for every situation, so it’s important to understand the warehouse conditions required and the protocols and best practices needed to make it a win. Here are some guidelines for applying pallet-handling robots and gaining the most from your investment.
FIRST, UNDERSTAND THE TECHNOLOGY
Pallet-handling robots fall into four general categories, explains Rich O’Connor, vice president of storage and automation for Raymond West Group, a business unit of lift truck manufacturer The Raymond Corp. They include:
Palletizing/depalletizing robots, which are used to load or unload items onto and off of pallets, usually with the use of a robotic arm for picking and placing. Today, these systems are being increasingly integrated with automated storage and retrieval systems (AS/RS) to further streamline pallet handling in the warehouse, O’Connor explains.
Autonomous guided vehicles (AGVs) and autonomous mobile robots (AMRs), which are used to transport pallets within the warehouse. Often outfitted with lift decks or conveyors, or designed to tug or tow items, these robots move pallets from point A to B within a facility. AGVs, which often follow a marked guide-path or wire in the floor, have been around for many years, but the advent of high-performance guidance and vision systems is allowing them more flexibility today, O’Connor says. AMRs are self-guided vehicles that use software and sensors to navigate their way through the warehouse.
Forklift AGVs and AMRs, which can move products both horizontally, from place to place, and vertically, into and out of storage racks. They come in various styles—including stackers, counterbalanced trucks, reach trucks, and even very narrow aisle (VNA) vehicles for use in densely packed warehouses. These vehicles are more complex than those used only for horizontal transport, O’Connor explains. They must be “highly integrated” into the facility’s warehouse management system (WMS) or warehouse execution system (WES) so that they know precisely where to retrieve and deliver pallets within the facility.
Robotic pallet shuttles, which move pallets into, out of, and within dense storage racking. The Raymond Corp. describes such a system as “a standalone, automated deep-lane pallet storage system that utilizes self-powered shuttle carriages to move pallets toward the back or front in a racking channel. Shuttles are motor driven and travel along rails within a storage lane.”
O’Connor and others say that no matter which of these technologies you’re investing in, it’s important to remember that they are all part of a larger system designed to optimize operations throughout the warehouse.
“The expanding role of all these different styles working together is what’s amazing today,” O’Connor says.
SECOND, ENSURE THE TECHNOLOGY IS A FIT
Kivenko, of Vecna, also emphasizes the importance of pallet-handling robots working in concert, particularly AMRs and AGVs.
“The magic isn’t just that the robots are autonomous and driving by themselves. The magic is multiple robots—when you have a [whole integrated] system [in place],” he says. “[It’s] how the fleet operates autonomously and optimizes itself for continuous improvement. That’s where the exponential gains are. [It’s] not just about automating what a worker does; it’s about automating a system.”
But you can’t install these systems in just any warehouse and expect magic. Kivenko and others point to certain conditions that enable the best robotic pallet-handling outcomes, especially when it comes to transportation-based and forklift-type AMRs and AGVs.
“The robots that I sell are large-load machines with very expensive technology,” Kivenko explains. “They move material, generally, in larger facilities. And in order for them to produce a return [on investment]—because that’s the name of the game here—they have to be higher-velocity facilities.”
He says pallet-handling robots work best in large facilities running multiple shifts, usually more than five days a week. Wider aisles allow the equipment to move more freely through the facility and at higher speeds, to optimize efficiency and productivity. Strong Wi-Fi networks and clean, dry environments also help keep equipment running at top performance.
O’Connor agrees that pallet-handling robots are best suited to facilities with multishift operations, where they can ease labor constraints and boost productivity. And he says many customers are willing to extend the typical two- to three-year ROI period to five years in order to achieve those gains. But there is even more to it than that. O’Connor’s colleague John Rosenberger says customers must first step back and analyze their processes to ensure that, even if they have the right facility for pallet-handling AMRs or AGVs, they are moving material in the most efficient way to begin with.
“Many times, we find that the processes in place [are inefficient],” says Rosenberger, who is director of iWarehouse Gateway and global telematics for The Raymond Corp. He emphasizes the importance of analyzing existing data—from an equipment telematics system or similar—to determine the best path toward automation.
“Do you have congestion zones now?” he asks. “They’ll still exist if you automate [those processes exactly].”
THIRD, MAKE SIMPLICITY A PRIORITY
Another basic rule of thumb when implementing pallet-handling robotics: Keep it simple.
Andy Lockhart, director of strategic engagement for global warehouse and logistics process automation company Vanderlande, says that when designing a pallet-handling robotics system, “you want to minimize the processes you [automate]. When you can create [an automated system] that focuses on one task—for example, AMRs delivering pallets from a high-bay [storage rack] directly to the palletizing cell—you can do that efficiently and effectively. When you ask the AMR to do this and this and this … you are adding risk of failure.”
Lockhart’s colleague Jake Heldenberg advises customers to first test their target processes via pilot programs within the warehouse or DC. Heldenberg is Vanderlande’s head of solution design, warehousing, North America.
“If AGVs or AMRs for pallet handling are interesting [to a customer], the best thing to do is pilot one or two in an existing DC,” he says, explaining that the process can help companies troubleshoot, understand integration timelines, and gauge ROI. But pilot programs can add expense to a project, making it unaffordable for some.
“If that’s the case, then the best advice is work with a vendor who has experience integrating [the technology],” Heldenberg says. “Use their experience to benefit your business. You won’t have the same hiccups and challenges you would with a less-experienced vendor.”
Jeremy Van Puffelen grew up in a family-owned contract warehousing business and is now president of that firm, Prism Logistics. As a third-party logistics service provider (3PL), Prism operates a network of more than 2 million square feet of warehouse space in Northern California, serving clients in the consumer packaged goods (CPG), food and beverage, retail, and manufacturing sectors.
During his 21 years working at the family firm, Van Puffelen has taken on many of the jobs that are part of running a warehousing business, including custodial functions, operations, facilities management, business development, customer service, executive leadership, and team building. Since 2021, he has also served on the board of directors of the International Warehouse Logistics Association (IWLA), a trade organization for contract warehousing and logistics service providers.
Q: How would you describe the current state of the contract warehouse industry?
A: I think the current state of the industry is strong. For those that have been focused on building good client relationships over the years, I think it’s a really exciting time. Coming out of all the challenges of the past few years, I think there’s a lot of opportunity for growth and deeper partnerships. It’s fun to see the automation and AI (artificial intelligence) integration starting to evolve [in a way that’s] similar to what we saw with WMS (warehouse management systems) in the early 2000s.
Q: You are now president of your family firm. Is it an advantage having grown up in the business as opposed to working elsewhere?
A: I definitely believe it was an advantage growing up in the business. Whether it’s working with family or someone else in the industry, there’s always an advantage when you have mentors[to guide] you. I’ve been blessed to have several mentors, some in the industry, others just in life, and I’m thankful that they were willing to mentor me and that I was willing to listen to them.
Q: What are the biggest challenges currently facing 3PLs, and how are you addressing them?
A: Labor and legislation are both tough right now. The two seem to have a lot to do with each other, and it can make it tough to find and retain people. So I think we’ll see more and more automation of processes industrywide.
Q: Third-party service providers often must handle a wide variety of products for a lot of different clients. Does this variety make it difficult to invest in automation and other new technologies?
A: It can make things more difficult when looking at certain automation, but it’s in the “difficult” that a lot of opportunities lie. It would be tough to find a single solution that fits every client’s needs, but there are always opportunities to improve in certain areas. It just takes a bit of vision and commitment, and a willingness to invest in your own long-term success.
Q: As a 3PL, what do you look for when selecting the clients you work with?
A: Quality relationships that will last a long time. When both parties are happy and working together in the same direction, everyone wins.
Q: You’ve been a board member of the International Warehouse Logistics Association since 2021. Why is your involvement with this organization important to you?
A: I think it’s important to understand what’s happening in the industry. IWLA is a great resource for staying up to date and getting a solid education when it comes to the latest logistics trends. I also think it’s important to give back and pass along what we’ve learned to those just getting started in the business. As important as it is to have a mentor, it’s just as important to mentor and help others.
“While there have been some signs of tightening in consumer spending, September’s numbers show consumers are willing to spend where they see value,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “September sales come amid the recent trend of payroll gains and other positive economic signs. Clearly, consumers continue to carry the economy, and conditions for the retail sector remain favorable as we move into the holiday season.”
The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in September were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 1.7% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.1% month over month and 2.2% year over year in August.
Likewise, September’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.7% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.4% unadjusted year over year. NRF is now forecasting that 2024 holiday sales will increase between 2.5% and 3.5% over the same time last year.
Despite those upward trends, consumer resilience isn’t a free pass for retailers to underinvest in their stores by overlooking labor, customer experience tech, or digital transformation, several analysts warned.
"The 2024 holiday season offers more ‘normalcy’ for retailers with inflation cooling. Still, there is no doubt that consumers continue to seek value. Promotions in general will play a larger role in the 2024 holiday season. Retailers are dealing with shrinking shopper loyalties, a larger number of competitors across more channels – and, of course, a more dynamic landscape where prices are shifting more frequently to win over consumers who are looking for great deals,” Matt Pavich, senior director of strategy & innovation at pricing optimization solutions provider Revionics, said in an email.
Nikki Baird, VP of strategy & product at retail technology company Aptos, likewise said that retailers need to keep their focus on improving their value proposition and customer experience. “Retailers aren’t just competing with other retailers when it comes to consumers’ discretionary spending. If consumers feel like the shopping experience isn’t worth their time and effort, they are going to spend their money elsewhere. A trip to Italy, a dinner out, catching the latest Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds films — there is no shortage of ways that consumers can spend their discretionary dollars,” she said.
Editor's note:This article was revised on October 18 to correct the attribution for a quote to Matt Pavich instead of Nikki Baird.
A real-time business is one that uses trusted, real-time data to enable people and systems to make real-time decisions, Peter Weill, the chairman of MIT’s Center for Information Systems Research (CISR), said at the “IFS Unleashed” show in Orlando.
By adopting that strategy, they gain three major capabilities, he said in a session titled “Becoming a Real-Time Business: Unlocking the Transformative Power of Digital, Data, and AI.” They are:
business model agility without needing a change management program to implement it
seamless digital customer journeys via self-service, automated, or assisted multi-product, multichannel experiences
thoughtful employee experiences enabled by technology empowered teams
And according to Weill, MIT’s studies show that adopting that real-time data stance is not restricted just to digital or tech-native businesses. Rather, it can produce successful results for companies in any sector that are able to apply the approach better than their immediate competitors.
“ExxonMobil is uniquely placed to understand the biggest opportunities in improving energy supply chains, from more accurate sales and operations planning, increased agility in field operations, effective management of enormous transportation networks and adapting quickly to complex regulatory environments,” John Sicard, Kinaxis CEO, said in a release.
Specifically, Kinaxis and ExxonMobil said they will focus on a supply and demand planning solution for the complicated fuel commodities market which has no industry-wide standard and which relies heavily on spreadsheets and other manual methods. The solution will enable integrated refinery-to-customer planning with timely data for the most accurate supply/demand planning, balancing and signaling.
The benefits of that approach could include automated data visibility, improved inventory management and terminal replenishment, and enhanced supply scenario planning that are expected to enable arbitrage opportunities and decrease supply costs.
And in the chemicals and lubricants space, the companies are developing an advanced planning solution that provides manufacturing and logistics constraints management coupled with scenario modelling and evaluation.
“Last year, we brought together all ExxonMobil supply chain activities and expertise into one centralized organization, creating one of the largest supply chain operations in the world, and through this identified critical solution gaps to enable our businesses to capture additional value,” said Staale Gjervik, supply chain president, ExxonMobil Global Services Company. “Collaborating with Kinaxis, a leading supply chain technology provider, is instrumental in providing solutions for a large and complex business like ours.”