Mitch Mac Donald has more than 30 years of experience in both the newspaper and magazine businesses. He has covered the logistics and supply chain fields since 1988. Twice named one of the Top 10 Business Journalists in the U.S., he has served in a multitude of editorial and publishing roles. The leading force behind the launch of Supply Chain Management Review, he was that brand's founding publisher and editorial director from 1997 to 2000. Additionally, he has served as news editor, chief editor, publisher and editorial director of Logistics Management, as well as publisher of Modern Materials Handling. Mitch is also the president and CEO of Agile Business Media, LLC, the parent company of DC VELOCITY and CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly.
As most practitioners can tell you, there is a treasure trove of historical data available to manage today's supply chains—too much data, in fact. The problem isn't so much obtaining the information; there are many good tools around for that. The real challenge is making good decisions from all of it. That's where having a "prescribed" approach can help.
Dr. Randy Bradley has spent a good portion of his career looking at analytics data and figuring out the best ways to analyze it for beneficial results. You might say he is an analytics analyst. Dr. Bradley is an assistant professor of information systems and supply chain management in the Haslam College of Business at the University of Tennessee. He holds a Ph.D. in management of information technology and innovation, an M.S. in management information systems, and a B.S. in computer engineering, all from Auburn University.
DC Velocity Group Editorial Director Mitch Mac Donald spoke recently with Dr. Bradley on the value of predictive analytics for digital supply chains. You can watch the full interview or read an edited version of their conversation below.
Q: You did a presentation at MHI's fall conference titled "Predictive Analytics for Non-Analysts." Tell us a little about that.
A: For the non-analyst, the hard work of analytics is really the strategic approach. So I talked a bit about three key components of that—data streams, questions, and strategy—and why organizations need to focus on them.
When we look at the emergence of technology in the supply chain, we have more data coming at us than we know what to do with—and it's coming at us from a multitude of different angles. Organizations need to have a cohesive process for how they're going to manage that flow of data. We already know the issue with silos. Now, you lay on top of that more data sources from other silos. That is why there is a need to focus on the data streams first. How you are going to manage the capturing, the processing, and the structuring of that data?
Then, the next thing is the questions. Oftentimes, what I find when I work with executives is that they ask one question, but really, they want an answer to another question. The reason why questions are paramount is that questions drive the mechanism to get to the solution. In other words, analytics is not about which algorithm I'm going to use or which solution I'm going to apply. It is about what question am I trying to answer. The question drives the approach or the technique.
Then, last is strategy. You'd be amazed that approximately 80 percent of the organizations we work with don't have an analytics strategy. So, we are shooting for something, and yet we have no guided direction with respect to that.
Q: So, if you're a non-analyst, you should focus not on the algorithms and the codes and the databases and where things link and how things get shared, but rather on the questions you have and how analytics can deliver answers to make better business decisions?
A: Absolutely, because people are enamored with predictive analytics, but predictive analytics essentially tells you what is likely to happen. We don't know that it will. It is just what we believe based on the historical data we have. But the better question is, what steps am I going to take in the event that it does happen or in the event that it doesn't happen? So, we are trying to get from just predictive analytics to prescriptive analytics, where we have a prescribed approach to a particular incident or outcome.
Q: Predictive analytics is very hot right now. Why is that?
A: I think it is the nomenclature itself. When we hear the term "predictive," we think of it as this perfect picture. We think we know exactly what's going to take place, or that we'll have what I like to describe as a heads-up view in an automobile: You know the direction you're going, you know how fast you're going, and you know when your next turn is. People think that is predictive analytics, but it is not. Predictive analytics is the rearview mirror. The best vision you have of what's in front of you is really what's behind you. Everything else is hazy. So, you're going to use your historical data to try to anticipate what is likely to take place.
Q: The industry is full of very bright people who are passionate about what they do and who are not resistant to change. They see this coming and recognize it is important, but they don't know where to begin. What is step one for these folks?
A: For me, step one is strategy. The reason I say this is that the data streams and the questions are going to be contingent upon your strategic approach and the strategic imperative you place around analytics in the organization. We say we want to be data-driven organizations, but that can mean 10 different things. So, the question is, what does it mean and what should it mean for my organization? Once we put a stake in the ground, this is our analytics strategy.
That is not to be confused with a big-data strategy. You already know you live in a world with voluminous data. You don't need a strategy around that. That should be embedded in your IT strategy, which should be coupled to your business strategy. But your approach to analytics in driving decisions should be to view it as decision analytics. Analytics gives you the vision to analyze the types of decisions you've made in the past and whether or not they've been fruitful.
Q: You just made a point that I think is fascinating—to make sure your IT strategy is not in a silo serving itself but reflects the goals of the company. Let's shift a bit to the broader topic of technology. I know it is a passion of yours. A lot has happened in the last 10 years, and a lot has changed. What is your short list of some of the most important or disruptive technologies that have emerged in the supply chain in the past decade?
A: I think that we're now embracing artificial intelligence to the degree that we really should. And a lot of times, we use the terms "artificial intelligence" and "machine learning" interchangeably, but the reality is, machine learning is a subset of artificial intelligence, or AI. We used to talk about "hard AI" and "soft AI." Machine learning is that soft AI, where the programs learn to do things that you never instructed them to do.
I think we now have the computational power, we have the storage capabilities, and we have more data coming, so we can truly feed those appliances. It's what's hot now, and I think that is what is going to carry us for the next 10 years. I think we are going to get true insights because we are now finally able to harness the power of something that was created back in the '60s.
Q: What are some other technologies that you think are going to go from promise to application in the next three to five years?
A: I think we will see blockchain. I really do. A lot of people are interested in blockchain. But when I say we're going to see promise with respect to that, I think we are going to truly realize what it can and can't do. I think we are also going to realize where we should and where we shouldn't use it. To me, once we get that level of clarity, that is when I think solutions start to become more tangible.
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The British logistics robot vendor Dexory this week said it has raised $80 million in venture funding to support an expansion of its artificial intelligence (AI) powered features, grow its global team, and accelerate the deployment of its autonomous robots.
A “significant focus” continues to be on expanding across the U.S. market, where Dexory is live with customers in seven states and last month opened a U.S. headquarters in Nashville. The Series B will also enhance development and production facilities at its UK headquarters, the firm said.
The “series B” funding round was led by DTCP, with participation from Latitude Ventures, Wave-X and Bootstrap Europe, along with existing investors Atomico, Lakestar, Capnamic, and several angels from the logistics industry. With the close of the round, Dexory has now raised $120 million over the past three years.
Dexory says its product, DexoryView, provides real-time visibility across warehouses of any size through its autonomous mobile robots and AI. The rolling bots use sensor and image data and continuous data collection to perform rapid warehouse scans and create digital twins of warehouse spaces, allowing for optimized performance and future scenario simulations.
Originally announced in September, the move will allow Deutsche Bahn to “fully focus on restructuring the rail infrastructure in Germany and providing climate-friendly passenger and freight transport operations in Germany and Europe,” Werner Gatzer, Chairman of the DB Supervisory Board, said in a release.
For its purchase price, DSV gains an organization with around 72,700 employees at over 1,850 locations. The new owner says it plans to investment around one billion euros in coming years to promote additional growth in German operations. Together, DSV and Schenker will have a combined workforce of approximately 147,000 employees in more than 90 countries, earning pro forma revenue of approximately $43.3 billion (based on 2023 numbers), DSV said.
After removing that unit, Deutsche Bahn retains its core business called the “Systemverbund Bahn,” which includes passenger transport activities in Germany, rail freight activities, operational service units, and railroad infrastructure companies. The DB Group, headquartered in Berlin, employs around 340,000 people.
“We have set clear goals to structurally modernize Deutsche Bahn in the areas of infrastructure, operations and profitability and focus on the core business. The proceeds from the sale will significantly reduce DB’s debt and thus make an important contribution to the financial stability of the DB Group. At the same time, DB Schenker will gain a strong strategic owner in DSV,” Deutsche Bahn CEO Richard Lutz said in a release.
Transportation industry veteran Anne Reinke will become president & CEO of trade group the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) at the end of the year, stepping into the position from her previous post leading third party logistics (3PL) trade group the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), both organizations said today.
Meanwhile, TIA today announced that insider Christopher Burroughs would fill Reinke’s shoes as president & CEO. Burroughs has been with TIA for 13 years, most recently as its vice president of Government Affairs for the past six years, during which time he oversaw all legislative and regulatory efforts before Congress and the federal agencies.
Before her four years leading TIA, Reinke spent two years as Deputy Assistant Secretary with the U.S. Department of Transportation and 16 years with CSX Corporation.
Serious inland flooding and widespread power outages are likely to sweep across Florida and other Southeast states in coming days with the arrival of Hurricane Helene, which is now predicted to make landfall Thursday evening along Florida’s northwest coast as a major hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the most catastrophic landfall impact is expected in the sparsely-population Big Bend area of Florida, it’s not only sea-front cities that are at risk. Since Helene is an “unusually large storm,” its flooding, rainfall, and high winds won’t be limited only to the Gulf Coast, but are expected to travel hundreds of miles inland, the weather service said. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin in the region even before the storm comes ashore, and the wet conditions will continue to move northward into the southern Appalachians region through Friday, dumping storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches. Specifically, the major flood risk includes the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta, and western North Carolina.
In addition to its human toll, the storm could exert serious business impacts, according to the supply chain mapping and monitoring firm Resilinc. Those will be largely triggered by significant flooding, which could halt oil operations, force mandatory evacuations, restrict ports, and disrupt air traffic.
While the storm’s track is currently forecast to miss the critical ports of Miami and New Orleans, it could still hurt operations throughout the Southeast agricultural belt, which produces products like soybeans, cotton, peanuts, corn, and tobacco, according to Everstream Analytics.
That widespread footprint could also hinder supply chain and logistics flows along stretches of interstate highways I-10 and I-75 and on regional rail lines operated by Norfolk Southern and CSX. And Hurricane Helene could also likely impact business operations by unleashing power outages, deep flooding, and wind damage in northern Florida portions of Georgia, Everstream Analytics said.
Before the storm had even touched Florida soil, recovery efforts were already being launched by humanitarian aid group the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN). In a statement on Wednesday, the group said it is urging residents in the storm's path across the Southeast to heed evacuation notices and safety advisories, and reminding members of the logistics community that their post-storm help could be needed soon. The group will continue to update its Disaster Micro-Site with Hurricane Helene resources and with requests for donated logistics assistance, most of which will start arriving within 24 to 72 hours after the storm’s initial landfall, ALAN said.