Bruised and battered, post-pandemic supply chains look to 3PLs to ease the pain
Persistent inflation, bloated inventories, and shifting supply chain strategies all are conspiring to upend carefully crafted supply chains—and put fresh pressures on 3PLs to deliver solutions.
Gary Frantz is a contributing editor for DC Velocity and its sister publication CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly, and a veteran communications executive with more than 30 years of experience in the transportation and logistics industries. He's served as communications director and strategic media relations counselor for companies including XPO Logistics, Con-way, Menlo Logistics, GT Nexus, Circle International Group, and Consolidated Freightways. Gary is currently principal of GNF Communications LLC, a consultancy providing freelance writing, editorial and media strategy services. He's a proud graduate of the Journalism program at California State University–Chico.
Jeff Jackson, recently promoted to president at Penske Logistics, has spent some 30 years in the trucking and logistics business. He looks back on the past couple of years as having been among the most challenging for the industry as shippers and their third-party logistics service providers (3PLs) navigated the pandemic and all manner of once-in-a-generation issues. Demand cratered, then surged. Ports buckled under record volumes. Freight sat on docks, then inventories bulged as businesses, wary of running out of goods, over-ordered and packed warehouses to the rafters. Truckers fell into a freight recession, some closing their doors. Supply chains broke down, then struggled to keep goods flowing.
Nearly a year after the end of the pandemic, the market continues to evolve due to shifting trade patterns, geopolitical conflicts, and other fundamental challenges. Global sourcing strategies are undergoing dramatic adjustments. Shippers increasingly have focused on minimizing risk in an effort to return their supply chains to some sense of normalcy. At the same time, the costs for virtually every aspect of supply chain operations—from truck rates to warehouse leases to equipment, technology, energy, labor, and even capital for expansion—remain on the rise.
AN EVOLVING MARKET
It’s an evolving market, with new challenges and demands, yet one where today’s 3PLs have to adapt but still provide the basic blocking and tackling of storing goods, then getting them to factories and markets with as much velocity, efficiency, and accuracy as possible. And do it flawlessly.
What are shippers asking for? In many cases, they’re asking how 3PLs can help them “de-risk” their supply chains to ensure business continuity. At the same time, they’re pressing their partners to adjust their networks to better serve shifting sourcing strategies; provide deeper and ever more detailed, precise, and proactive visibility and intelligence into supply chain performance and problems; and squeeze every last dime out of logistics costs.
Some industries still are experiencing supplier disruptions, but those are diminishing, observes Jackson. Managing and mitigating risk and ensuring supply chains are effectively protected from cyberattacks are among the most pressing “asks” from shippers.
“We are asked more and more about what our business continuity plans are, and within that, how we can help shippers de-risk their supply chains,” Jackson notes. There is more bid activity, particularly in transportation, where rates remain depressed. “There is a huge spread between low [price] and value; spot rates are well below carrier costs,” he adds. In some cases, “shippers are sacrificing value for cost.”
The most intense focus, Jackson says, is on cost. “Covid came with extreme cost increases for everyone,” he notes. “Shippers are [now] in a cost-scrutinizing mode with 3PLs, trying to sift through what was really inflationary that needs to be sustained, and what was more of a margin grab opportunity that they now want to claw back.”
ACCELERATING NEARSHORING—AND RESHORING
There is no question that the pandemic and its aftermath shined an intense light on capacity, cycle times, and dependability issues from long, over-water global supply chains. That’s driving more businesses to not just think about shifting production and distribution closer to end-users, but also to actively move in that direction. By one report, more than 300 Chinese-based companies have set up manufacturing and/or distribution operations in Mexico as well as other south-of-the-border locations in the past several years. And the trend is accelerating. Another report cites some 425 companies actively pursuing setting up nearshored operations.
“We are excited about this trend,” says Daryl Knight, chief commercial officer of ProTrans International, an Indianapolis-based 3PL. “We have a significant history and presence in Mexico, and with our experience, we can help our customers enter or expand” as they look to implement nearshoring strategies.
As a 3PL, ProTrans’ goal is essentially “erasing the border” for its customers, providing a service that reduces the complexity of cross-border transportation and does it in a reliable and predictable-cost manner, Knight says.
He also stresses the importance of resiliency, noting that if this post-Covid environment taught us anything, it’s that “customers want a flexible and variable supply chain model” that can adapt quickly. “The ability to adjust and be agile with our supply chain partners enables us to react faster to issues with less disruption in the form of service and cost impacts,” he notes.
Like many 3PLs, ProTrans continues to invest in its TMS (transportation management system) “to ensure we have real-time visibility into not just trucks and trailers moving cross-border, but also the paperwork flow,” Knight says. Documents, electronic or paper, that are properly prepared and correctly address government regulations in a timely manner “are just as important as a reliable truck and driver” to smooth cross-border movement, he explains.
Yet at the end of the day, doing the basics right, day in and day out, is table stakes, says Knight. “Pick up and deliver on time. Tell me where [the shipment] is at any given time. Is there an issue, and if so, what is your plan to solve it?” Supporting effective execution of the basics is increasing demand for quality data, predictive analytics, and solid integration with multiple data sources and platforms.
The third piece, Knight says, is to “be transparent. Tell the shipper what you see about the business, good or bad, and offer insights and knowledge to help customers get better and overcome issues. There are always challenges, but it’s how you work through them, collaborate with partners, and bring solutions to the customer that defines success.”
THE DRIVE TO “ANTI-FRAGILE” SUPPLY CHAINS
“Most 3PLs will tell you that the impact of nearshoring and reshoring has shifted trade flows somewhat, and therefore 3PLs have to access new skills, networks, and services”—the traditional example being the U.S.-Mexico trade lane, says Matthew Beckett, senior director, research and advisory, at consulting firm Gartner Inc. As if to illustrate that, Mexico recently became the U.S.’s largest trading partner, surpassing China for the first time.
Manufacturing certain products closer to the customer “has made good sense for companies to ‘anti-fragile’ their supply chains,” says Beckett. “It’s certainly a trend we suspect will continue into the near future.”
He notes as well that companies are increasingly seeking to de-risk their supply chains, with the intent of putting in processes and partners who can identify and mitigate risk, and when a risk issue arises, have the resources, skills, and plans in place to resolve it quickly before it becomes disruptive.
Another trend Beckett sees gaining traction is companies consolidating services and partners across fewer 3PLs—and stressing more true partnerships. It’s an effort to “sort out the wheat from the chaff,” he notes.
“Does your [3PL] network have the ability to shift modes? Do you have the right contract structure in place, and is your 3PL incented in the right way? Do you have the right mix of services and access to networks? And are those relationships able to seize on opportunities quickly and be agile enough to take advantage of them?” Beckett asks.
Being integrated at multiple levels and across multiple technologies with your 3PL is much more important now than it was in the past, Beckett has observed. “You want your 3PLs to be risk managers and provide you with visibility and transparency into risks across all the modes and nodes of a global supply chain.” It’s something that successful 3PLs “are at the forefront of and need to be really good at. That’s changing the dynamic,” he says.”
“When you are integrating data and processes [from multiple partners and platforms], there is a lot of operational risk. It has to be done exceptionally well. You want your 3PL to be your periscope” into your supply chain.
NO MORE EXTRA STORAGE
The pandemic and the period following it created all kinds of odd issues and behaviors for 3PLs and their customers. As supply chains strive to return to some sense of normalcy, some of those issues still exist but are slowly resolving themselves.
“We have certainly seen a shift,” notes Jeff Beckham, chief executive officer of 3PL Kingsgate Logistics, which has some $500 million of freight under management and is heavily into inbound vendor management for its food and beverage and retail CPG (consumer packaged goods) clients. “Going back during the pandemic, we had clients who had upwards of 50 trailers loaded and sitting in the warehouse yard because the warehouse was full,” he recalls. “We even started looking into buying trailers because there was a shortage and so many were being used for storage.”
Late in 2022 and through 2023, Beckham saw a rightsizing begin to take hold. “Last January, we had a couple of clients in the retail space shut down receiving for a week so they could right-size their inventory,” he recalls. “Now we are seeing a bit more balance.”
One trend that Beckham says seems to have gained traction is companies putting in smaller, yet more frequent, orders for goods. “In the past, a shipment might be 20,000 pounds; now it is down to 8,000 pounds. It’s ordering less but doing so more frequently, which is a different challenge when you’re managing the transportation.”
Beckham echoes the observations of other 3PLs with respect to nearshoring, noting that Kingsgate has relationships with Mexican partners that go back to the company’s founding 37 years ago. “Those [relationships] have been instrumental in helping us proactively address customers’ needs” as they set up or expand cross-border operations.
He too has found shippers clamoring for more and deeper real-time visibility into supply chains. “We have taken it to the next level,” he says. Kingsgate continues to invest in its tech stack and now is able to provide clients with visibility not only around the status of the vehicle and purchase order (PO), but also down to the SKU (stock-keeping unit) level.
“So instead of just knowing what truck it’s on and the PO arrival time, they know sizes, colors, and quantities for each product coming in on that PO. On the retail side, that really helps with warehouse planning and optimized fulfillment into stores.”
He notes as well that particularly in the food and beverage space, where shelf life is a huge consideration, “this level of detail informs planning and scheduling with precise data about what is coming in to a manufacturing site and when. There are so many moving parts, accurate data at very detailed levels is critical to optimizing production planning.”
Lastly, Beckham shares how customers are demanding 3PLs provide not only a much deeper dive into their supply chains, but also sophisticated analytics and data security to complement it. “There is not a meeting I take where the topic does not come up,” he notes. “Eighty percent of the conversations are around data—data integration, quality, security, and analytics. In the past, data security might have been [the subject of] three or four questions in an RFP [request for proposal]. Now there are literally pages of questions.”
TO BUNDLE OR NOT TO BUNDLE?
As shippers look to rationalize their 3PL services, some are looking to break up what were once “bundled” services and instead procure them as discrete, separate services, looking for providers who specialize in a particular service as their core competency. One reason is shippers want to better understand the actual cost of each service and ensure that there hasn’t been what some call “margin creep” in those services.
The trend cuts both ways, notes Steve Sensing, president of supply chain and dedicated transportation solutions at logistics and transportation giant Ryder System Inc.
He believes the bundled approach provides the best value and most efficient method for delivering an integrated solution.
“Our strategy is to be an integrated port-to-door 3PL,” he says. “Seventy percent of our revenues come from customers who use more than one service on the supply chain side.” He notes Ryder’s teams “often know more about our customer’s business than our customers do because we have been in the industry, we have experience with others in the same business, and we know the best practices and processes [unique to that industry].”
He has watched other competitors break apart their integrated offerings and go to market differently, offering a menu of individual services. “And I think that’s good for us,” he adds.
Kingsgate’s Beckham has experienced the other side of the bundle/unbundle equation. “We had two clients where we lost the business two years ago when they decided to bundle everything,” he recalls. “Fast forward to today, those same clients are now unbundling the work, and we are getting back our part of the business, which was managed transportation.”
IS THE SUN SETTING ON THE BROKER?
Trucking is one business where brokers have been able to carve out a niche. Their business model: find a driver and a truck, match it to a load, and take a commission on the transaction or pocket the spread between what the broker is paying for the truck and what it is charging the shipper.
“You can separate logistics providers, in which I include brokers, into three camps: the good, the bad, and the ugly,” comments Satish Jindel, principal at transportation data analytics firm ShipMatrix.
He says it is important for shippers to understand the difference between a broker versus a true 3PL—and know what you’re getting.
“3PLs or brokers who are pure play and just taking a markup on the driver and truck will be of lower value and find it harder and harder to stay in business,” Jindel believes. “Where they have opportunity to be recognized and rewarded for their role in the supply chain is in helping shippers and carriers leverage capacity or empty space on the truck by matching it with different shippers.”
Most trucks running down the highway are not full, Jindel notes. Yet utilizing that capacity will require a sea change in how shippers and carriers work together, particularly when it comes to providing real-time visibility into capacity so that all parties know what is available in each other’s network. For this to happen, “you have to be willing to share that [information] with a competitor,” he says. “That will require an element of trust we don’t have today and technology that gives us visibility down to the lane and trailer level across carriers and locations in real time.”
Worldwide air cargo rates rose to a 2024 high in November of $2.76 per kilo, despite a slight (-2%) drop in flown tonnages compared with October, according to analysis by WorldACD Market data.
The healthy rate comes as demand and pricing both remain significantly above their already elevated levels last November, the Dutch firm said.
The new figures reflect worldwide air cargo markets that remain relatively strong, including shipments originating in the Asia Pacific, but where good advance planning by air cargo stakeholders looks set to avert a major peak season capacity crunch and very steep rate rises in the final weeks of the year, WorldACD said.
Despite that effective planning, average worldwide rates in November rose by 6% month on month (MoM), based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, taking them to their highest level since January 2023 and 11% higher, year on year (YoY). The biggest MoM increases came from Europe (+10%) and Central & South America (+9%) origins, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
But overall global tonnages in November were down -2%, MoM, with the biggest percentage decline coming from Middle East & South Asia (-11%) origins, which have been highly elevated for most of this year. But the -4%, MoM, decrease from Europe origins was responsible for a similar drop in tonnage terms – reflecting reduced passenger belly capacity since the start of aviation’s winter season from 27 October, including cuts in passenger services by European carriers to and from China.
Each of those points could have a stark impact on business operations, the firm said. First, supply chain restrictions will continue to drive up costs, following examples like European tariffs on Chinese autos and the U.S. plan to prevent Chinese software and hardware from entering cars in America.
Second, reputational risk will peak due to increased corporate transparency and due diligence laws, such as Germany’s Supply Chain Due Diligence Act that addresses hotpoint issues like modern slavery, forced labor, human trafficking, and environmental damage. In an age when polarized public opinion is combined with ever-present social media, doing business with a supplier whom a lot of your customers view negatively will be hard to navigate.
And third, advances in data, technology, and supplier risk assessments will enable executives to measure the impact of disruptions more effectively. Those calculations can help organizations determine whether their risk mitigation strategies represent value for money when compared to the potential revenues losses in the event of a supply chain disruption.
“Looking past the holidays, retailers will need to prepare for the typical challenges posed by seasonal slowdown in consumer demand. This year, however, there will be much less of a lull, as U.S. companies are accelerating some purchases that could potentially be impacted by a new wave of tariffs on U.S. imports,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management Solutions at Moody’s, said in a release. “Tariffs, sanctions and other supply chain restrictions will likely be top of the 2025 agenda for procurement executives.”
As holiday shoppers blitz through the final weeks of the winter peak shopping season, a survey from the postal and shipping solutions provider Stamps.com shows that 40% of U.S. consumers are unaware of holiday shipping deadlines, leaving them at risk of running into last-minute scrambles, higher shipping costs, and packages arriving late.
The survey also found a generational difference in holiday shipping deadline awareness, with 53% of Baby Boomers unaware of these cut-off dates, compared to just 32% of Millennials. Millennials are also more likely to prioritize guaranteed delivery, with 68% citing it as a key factor when choosing a shipping option this holiday season.
Of those surveyed, 66% have experienced holiday shipping delays, with Gen Z reporting the highest rate of delays at 73%, compared to 49% of Baby Boomers. That statistical spread highlights a conclusion that younger generations are less tolerant of delays and prioritize fast and efficient shipping, researchers said. The data came from a study of 1,000 U.S. consumers conducted in October 2024 to understand their shopping habits and preferences.
As they cope with that tight shipping window, a huge 83% of surveyed consumers are willing to pay extra for faster shipping to avoid the prospect of a late-arriving gift. This trend is especially strong among Gen Z, with 56% willing to pay up, compared to just 27% of Baby Boomers.
“As the holiday season approaches, it’s crucial for consumers to be prepared and aware of shipping deadlines to ensure their gifts arrive on time,” Nick Spitzman, General Manager of Stamps.com, said in a release. ”Our survey highlights the significant portion of consumers who are unaware of these deadlines, particularly older generations. It’s essential for retailers and shipping carriers to provide clear and timely information about shipping deadlines to help consumers avoid last-minute stress and disappointment.”
For best results, Stamps.com advises consumers to begin holiday shopping early and familiarize themselves with shipping deadlines across carriers. That is especially true with Thanksgiving falling later this year, meaning the holiday season is shorter and planning ahead is even more essential.
According to Stamps.com, key shipping deadlines include:
December 13, 2024: Last day for FedEx Ground Economy
December 18, 2024: Last day for USPS Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail
December 19, 2024: Last day for UPS 3 Day Select and USPS Priority Mail
December 20, 2024: Last day for UPS 2nd Day Air
December 21, 2024: Last day for USPS Priority Mail Express
Measured over the entire year of 2024, retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales will be returned. But that total figure includes a spike of returns during the holidays; a separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate.
Despite the cost of handling that massive reverse logistics task, retailers grin and bear it because product returns are so tightly integrated with brand loyalty, offering companies an additional touchpoint to provide a positive interaction with their customers, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. According to NRF’s research, 76% of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again. And 84% of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
So in response to consumer demand, retailers continue to enhance the return experience for customers. More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months. In addition, improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
However, retailers also must balance meeting consumer demand for seamless returns against rising costs. Fraudulent and abusive returns practices create both logistical and financial challenges for retailers. A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business. In terms of abuse, bracketing – purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some – has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration – they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said in a release. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
The research came from two complementary surveys conducted this fall, allowing NRF and Happy Returns to compare perspectives from both sides. They included one that gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, and another from 249 e-commerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers.
The “series A” round was led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Y Combinator and strategic industry investors, including RyderVentures. It follows an earlier, previously undisclosed, pre-seed round raised 1.5 years ago, that was backed by Array Ventures and other angel investors.
“Our mission is to redefine the economics of the freight industry by harnessing the power of agentic AI,ˮ Pablo Palafox, HappyRobotʼs co-founder and CEO, said in a release. “This funding will enable us to accelerate product development, expand and support our customer base, and ultimately transform how logistics businesses operate.ˮ
According to the firm, its conversational AI platform uses agentic AI—a term for systems that can autonomously make decisions and take actions to achieve specific goals—to simplify logistics operations. HappyRobot says its tech can automate tasks like inbound and outbound calls, carrier negotiations, and data capture, thus enabling brokers to enhance efficiency and capacity, improve margins, and free up human agents to focus on higher-value activities.
“Today, the logistics industry underpinning our global economy is stretched,” Anish Acharya, general partner at a16z, said. “As a key part of the ecosystem, even small to midsize freight brokers can make and receive hundreds, if not thousands, of calls per day – and hiring for this job is increasingly difficult. By providing customers with autonomous decision making, HappyRobotʼs agentic AI platform helps these brokers operate more reliably and efficiently.ˮ