Barry Brandman is president of Danbee Investigations, a Midland Park, N.J., company that provides investigative, loss prevention and security consulting services to many of the top names in the logistics industry. He has been a guest speaker for the Department of Homeland Security, CSCMP, and WERC, and is the author of Security Best Practices: Protecting Your Distribution Center From Inventory Theft, Fraud, Substance Abuse, Cybercrime and Terrorism. You can reach him via e-mail at
or (201) 652-5500.
The distributor was distraught. Month after month, inventory was disappearing from the premises, but his efforts to track down the perpetrators had gotten him nowhere. In desperation, he hired an undercover operative. A short time later, he got what he was looking for: The investigator filed a report with the names of two workers he'd observed stealing from their employer.
As the distributor found, undercover investigations can be an effective way to get at the source of problems in logistics operations. Not only can investigators identify thieves, but they can also uncover a host of other costly workplace problems, including on-the-job drug use and distribution, lax supervision, violations of company policies, product tampering, and—perhaps most worrisome of all—lapses in supply chain security.
Not all investigations prove to be as successful as the one described above, however. There have been plenty of cases of investigations that ended in disappointment. More often than not, it's because the company receiving the service or the investigation firm providing it made one (or more) of the following mistakes:
1. Failure to hire a qualified investigation company. What many don't realize is that there's a world of difference between hiring an out-of-uniform security officer and hiring a well-trained, experienced investigator. Make certain that you're working with a company that has a proven track record. Be wary of any firm that won't provide you with client references.
2. Letting too many people in on the secret. The more people who know about a covert investigation, the greater the odds of a leak. People should be brought into the loop only on a need-to-know basis. Two or three executives at most should receive the confidential reports.
3. Responding too hastily. Most executives like to take swift and decisive action. The minute they find out someone's been stealing from the company, they want to fire the offender and stop the bleeding. But that could actually be counterproductive. If management suddenly starts responding to problems that have dragged on for months or years, employees will become suspicious. It won't be long before they've figured out that you have an inside source and the investigation will be neutralized.
That's not to suggest that you should sit idly by while somebody robs you blind. Just make sure that when you do take action, you do it in a way that doesn't compromise the investigation. Above all, you want to deflect suspicion from the investigator. One way to do that is to establish an 800 tip line program for employees to report unethical or illegal activity. That way, when the crackdown comes, you can explain that you were responding to a tip, thereby shielding the real source of your information.
4. Not letting the investigation run its course. When it comes to undercover investigations, patience is a virtue. Better than 95 percent of the time, the first problem that an investigator uncovers isn't the only problem—or even the most significant problem—you have.
Take the case of the distributor mentioned above. When the vice president of operations learned the thieves' identity, his first impulse was to fire the perpetrators and end the investigation. However, we cautioned him to exercise restraint.
He agreed, and his patience was rewarded. As the investigation unfolded, it became clear that the two thieves were mere pilferers compared to some of their co-workers. The undercover operative was able to identify three other workers (one of whom was a longtime supervisor) who were conspiring to steal thousands of dollars worth of inventory a week. It also turned out that these employees were using cocaine on the job and selling it to co-workers. By agreeing to let the investigation run its course, the company not only had the satisfaction of catching the petty crooks but of shutting down the internal crime ring as well.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain” report.
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Freight transportation sector analysts with US Bank say they expect change on the horizon in that market for 2025, due to possible tariffs imposed by a new White House administration, the return of East and Gulf coast port strikes, and expanding freight fraud.
“All three of these merit scrutiny, and that is our promise as we roll into the new year,” the company said in a statement today.
First, US Bank said a new administration will occupy the White House and will control the House and Senate for the first time since 2016. With an announced mandate on tariffs, taxes and trade from his electoral victory, President-Elect Trump’s anticipated actions are almost certain to impact the supply chain, the bank said.
Second, a strike by longshoreman at East Coast and Gulf ports was suspended in October, but the can was only kicked until mid-January. Shipper alarm bells are already ringing, and with peak season in full swing, the West coast ports are roaring, having absorbed containers bound for the East. However, that status may not be sustainable in the event of a prolonged strike in January, US Bank said.
And third, analyst are tracking the proliferation of freight fraud, and its reverberations across the supply chain. No longer the realm of petty criminals, freight fraudsters have become increasingly sophisticated, and the financial toll of their activities in the loss of goods, and data, is expected to be in the billions, the bank estimates.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
A measure of business conditions for shippers improved in September due to lower fuel costs, looser trucking capacity, and lower freight rates, but the freight transportation forecasting firm FTR still expects readings to be weaker and closer to neutral through its two-year forecast period.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR is maintaining its stance that trucking conditions will improve, even though its Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) improved in September to 4.6 from a 2.9 reading in August, reaching its strongest level of the year.
“The fact that September’s index is the strongest since last December is not a sign that shippers’ market conditions are steadily improving,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release.
“September and May were modest outliers this year in a market that is at least becoming more balanced. We expect that trend to continue and for SCI readings to be mostly negative to neutral in 2025 and 2026. However, markets in transition tend to be volatile, so further outliers are likely and possibly in both directions. The supply chain implications of tariffs are a wild card for 2025 especially,” he said.
The SCI tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. Combined into a single index, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions, while a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions.