Global trade patterns may be changing as businesses increasingly avoid trouble hotspots in a “friendshoring” trend, preferring to conduct trade with friendly nations in a bid to cut their exposure to geopolitical tensions, according to the ocean and air freight market intelligence firm Xeneta.
Companies have followed “offshoring” and “nearshoring” trends in recent years as a strategy to trim costs. But the new approach shows that unrest is a more acute business threat than higher costs.
“In the aftermath of the US-China trade war, the global pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, amongst other on-going factors, there’s been renewed focus on supply chain security. There’s a new appreciation of how easily everyday operations can be disrupted, and the growing geopolitical uncertainty is only exacerbating that,” Emily Stausbøll, market analyst at Xeneta, said in a release.
“As a result, we’re seeing more signs of friendshoring, whereby investment, manufacturing links and facilities are moved to countries that are deemed to be ‘friendly’ – essentially sharing the same values or geopolitical outlooks. This is a gradual process, but we can already see some significant changes in the flow of containerized ocean freight and a real sea change in streams of foreign investment. The impact of this should not be underestimated.”
Xeneta cited U.S. import statistics to illustrate the shift. The last five years have seen a rise of 26% in containerized imports to the U.S. from the Far East, but of the 12 major economies in the region, China tied with Singapore in recording the lowest growth in these exports, with a 7% increase (Hong Kong was the only one of the economies not to grow volume). That sits in marked contrast to “the more friendly” Vietnam, which saw a growth rate of 156% of containerized trade into the U.S. between 2017 and 2022, Xeneta said.
The profile held true in a breakdown of imports per country, as well. In 2022, 56% of all containerized imports into the U.S. from the Far East came from China. But that large share has actually fallen by 10 percentage points from 2017, while Vietnam has almost doubled its share over the same period, from 6% in 2017 to 11% in 2022, the Xeneta report found.
Xeneta also found evidence of friendshoring in an analysis of foreign direct investment (FDI)—which is investments by foreign companies into each nation—conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
That study showed that investments by foreign companies into China fell to their lowest level in close to two decades in the second half of 2022. They collapsed by 73% year-on-year, down to $42.5 billion. In contrast, Vietnam has seen FDIs grow by 61.2% year-on-year across the first three months of 2023, including a 62.1% increase in the number of new foreign-invested projects. The processing and manufacturing sectors attracted the most investment here, accounting for around 75% of the total.
“It takes time to build new production bases and make port infrastructure investments, as we’re seeing in, for example, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Singapore, so the impact of investments today won’t be fully appreciated until tomorrow. This implies that the changing trade patterns we’re seeing now could just be the beginning of a far greater realignment,” Stausbøll said.
“Moving forwards, the evidence suggests we’ll see more trade and investment decisions based on geopolitics rather than, say, availability or price. How this progresses, and the speed of change, will be dependent on a range of uncertain factors – not least the escalating tension around Taiwan. So far, Europe has maintained its share of imports from China, with key leaders taking a more conciliatory approach than the U.S., but another major geopolitical ‘event’ could transform that. The only sure thing is change, and friendshoring is bound to influence how that unfolds.”
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The British logistics robot vendor Dexory this week said it has raised $80 million in venture funding to support an expansion of its artificial intelligence (AI) powered features, grow its global team, and accelerate the deployment of its autonomous robots.
A “significant focus” continues to be on expanding across the U.S. market, where Dexory is live with customers in seven states and last month opened a U.S. headquarters in Nashville. The Series B will also enhance development and production facilities at its UK headquarters, the firm said.
The “series B” funding round was led by DTCP, with participation from Latitude Ventures, Wave-X and Bootstrap Europe, along with existing investors Atomico, Lakestar, Capnamic, and several angels from the logistics industry. With the close of the round, Dexory has now raised $120 million over the past three years.
Dexory says its product, DexoryView, provides real-time visibility across warehouses of any size through its autonomous mobile robots and AI. The rolling bots use sensor and image data and continuous data collection to perform rapid warehouse scans and create digital twins of warehouse spaces, allowing for optimized performance and future scenario simulations.
Originally announced in September, the move will allow Deutsche Bahn to “fully focus on restructuring the rail infrastructure in Germany and providing climate-friendly passenger and freight transport operations in Germany and Europe,” Werner Gatzer, Chairman of the DB Supervisory Board, said in a release.
For its purchase price, DSV gains an organization with around 72,700 employees at over 1,850 locations. The new owner says it plans to investment around one billion euros in coming years to promote additional growth in German operations. Together, DSV and Schenker will have a combined workforce of approximately 147,000 employees in more than 90 countries, earning pro forma revenue of approximately $43.3 billion (based on 2023 numbers), DSV said.
After removing that unit, Deutsche Bahn retains its core business called the “Systemverbund Bahn,” which includes passenger transport activities in Germany, rail freight activities, operational service units, and railroad infrastructure companies. The DB Group, headquartered in Berlin, employs around 340,000 people.
“We have set clear goals to structurally modernize Deutsche Bahn in the areas of infrastructure, operations and profitability and focus on the core business. The proceeds from the sale will significantly reduce DB’s debt and thus make an important contribution to the financial stability of the DB Group. At the same time, DB Schenker will gain a strong strategic owner in DSV,” Deutsche Bahn CEO Richard Lutz said in a release.
Transportation industry veteran Anne Reinke will become president & CEO of trade group the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) at the end of the year, stepping into the position from her previous post leading third party logistics (3PL) trade group the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), both organizations said today.
Meanwhile, TIA today announced that insider Christopher Burroughs would fill Reinke’s shoes as president & CEO. Burroughs has been with TIA for 13 years, most recently as its vice president of Government Affairs for the past six years, during which time he oversaw all legislative and regulatory efforts before Congress and the federal agencies.
Before her four years leading TIA, Reinke spent two years as Deputy Assistant Secretary with the U.S. Department of Transportation and 16 years with CSX Corporation.
Serious inland flooding and widespread power outages are likely to sweep across Florida and other Southeast states in coming days with the arrival of Hurricane Helene, which is now predicted to make landfall Thursday evening along Florida’s northwest coast as a major hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the most catastrophic landfall impact is expected in the sparsely-population Big Bend area of Florida, it’s not only sea-front cities that are at risk. Since Helene is an “unusually large storm,” its flooding, rainfall, and high winds won’t be limited only to the Gulf Coast, but are expected to travel hundreds of miles inland, the weather service said. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin in the region even before the storm comes ashore, and the wet conditions will continue to move northward into the southern Appalachians region through Friday, dumping storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches. Specifically, the major flood risk includes the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta, and western North Carolina.
In addition to its human toll, the storm could exert serious business impacts, according to the supply chain mapping and monitoring firm Resilinc. Those will be largely triggered by significant flooding, which could halt oil operations, force mandatory evacuations, restrict ports, and disrupt air traffic.
While the storm’s track is currently forecast to miss the critical ports of Miami and New Orleans, it could still hurt operations throughout the Southeast agricultural belt, which produces products like soybeans, cotton, peanuts, corn, and tobacco, according to Everstream Analytics.
That widespread footprint could also hinder supply chain and logistics flows along stretches of interstate highways I-10 and I-75 and on regional rail lines operated by Norfolk Southern and CSX. And Hurricane Helene could also likely impact business operations by unleashing power outages, deep flooding, and wind damage in northern Florida portions of Georgia, Everstream Analytics said.
Before the storm had even touched Florida soil, recovery efforts were already being launched by humanitarian aid group the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN). In a statement on Wednesday, the group said it is urging residents in the storm's path across the Southeast to heed evacuation notices and safety advisories, and reminding members of the logistics community that their post-storm help could be needed soon. The group will continue to update its Disaster Micro-Site with Hurricane Helene resources and with requests for donated logistics assistance, most of which will start arriving within 24 to 72 hours after the storm’s initial landfall, ALAN said.