Transportation costs are expected to decline in the fourth quarter, but shippers should remain vigilant as peak season surcharges and general rate increases (GRIs) take effect, according to the Q4 Cowen/AFS Logistics Freight Index, released this week.
The report shows an industry marked by softening demand and declining rates, but still battling inflation and other economic pressures.
“While the freight industry prices remain elevated on a year-over-year basis, specific sectors are seeing marked quarter-over-quarter decreases and are now receding from historic highs,” Tom Nightingale, AFS Logistics’ CEO, said in a press release announcing the Q4 findings. “But while flagging demand and falling quarterly rates indicate market power shifting away from carriers, shippers must remain vigilant as carriers inject unprecedented general rate increases.”
Transportation costs are projected to decline in Q4 for every mode except ground parcel, which is expected to reach an index record-high reading of 28.5%—which means the parcel rate per package average for the fourth quarter is expected to be 28.5% higher than it was in January 2018, the index baseline. Peak season surcharges and a higher share of residential deliveries during the holidays are driving the increase. Compounding matters, peak season surcharges for both ground and express parcel are in effect longer than in the past, apply to more shippers, and have risen as much as 60% year-over-year, according to the report. Looking ahead, Fed-Ex’s highest-ever GRI of 6.9% will take effect in January, and the researchers said UPS is likely to follow suit.
The report predicts declining rates in both the less-than-truckload (LTL) and truckload (TL) markets, although LTL rates will remain elevated compared to a year ago. According to the report:
Key implications for LTL: Weight and fuel surcharge per shipment both declined on a quarterly basis in Q3 2022, which helped drive a decline of 2.4% in LTL cost per shipment quarter-over-quarter. However, the LTL index still showed a significant year-over-year increase in Q3 of 20.3%. And while the average fuel surcharge fell by 5.4% quarter-over-quarter due to lower crude oil prices in Q3, average accessorial charges per shipment jumped 8.4% compared to the previous quarter. Looking ahead to Q4 2022, the LTL index is again expected to decrease on a quarterly basis, from 55.3% to 48.6%–still a 10.1% year-over-year increase compared to Q4 2021.
Key implications for TL: While truckload rates have fallen sequentially, the rates have fallen less than volumes, indicating surprising resilience in the market and the long shadow of truckload contract rates. The Cowen/AFS Truckload Freight Index is forecasted to be 17.9% in Q4 as compared to 18.3% in Q3. The linehaul cost per shipment showed a 0.8% decline in Q3 compared to the previous quarter, but still amounted to a 6.4% year-over-year increase. However, the year-over-year increase is 10% less than Q2’s year-over-year growth rate, indicating that the pace of truckload’s cost per shipment increase is declining.
“Not only is the Q4 truckload index expected to buck typical seasonal trends and decline on a quarterly basis, it also indicates the first negative year-over-year change since Q3 of 2020,” the researchers wrote. “This decline is largely due to the current macroeconomic environment, driven by factors like inflation remaining above 8% and expected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. As a result, truckload carriers are likely to face challenges maintaining revenue growth over the next several quarters.”
The Cowen/AFS Freight Index is based on data associated with $11 billion of annual transportation spend by AFS customers across all modes of transportation; it uses past performance and machine-learning to generate predictions for the remainder of the quarter, set against a baseline of 2018 rates for each mode.
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The British logistics robot vendor Dexory this week said it has raised $80 million in venture funding to support an expansion of its artificial intelligence (AI) powered features, grow its global team, and accelerate the deployment of its autonomous robots.
A “significant focus” continues to be on expanding across the U.S. market, where Dexory is live with customers in seven states and last month opened a U.S. headquarters in Nashville. The Series B will also enhance development and production facilities at its UK headquarters, the firm said.
The “series B” funding round was led by DTCP, with participation from Latitude Ventures, Wave-X and Bootstrap Europe, along with existing investors Atomico, Lakestar, Capnamic, and several angels from the logistics industry. With the close of the round, Dexory has now raised $120 million over the past three years.
Dexory says its product, DexoryView, provides real-time visibility across warehouses of any size through its autonomous mobile robots and AI. The rolling bots use sensor and image data and continuous data collection to perform rapid warehouse scans and create digital twins of warehouse spaces, allowing for optimized performance and future scenario simulations.
Originally announced in September, the move will allow Deutsche Bahn to “fully focus on restructuring the rail infrastructure in Germany and providing climate-friendly passenger and freight transport operations in Germany and Europe,” Werner Gatzer, Chairman of the DB Supervisory Board, said in a release.
For its purchase price, DSV gains an organization with around 72,700 employees at over 1,850 locations. The new owner says it plans to investment around one billion euros in coming years to promote additional growth in German operations. Together, DSV and Schenker will have a combined workforce of approximately 147,000 employees in more than 90 countries, earning pro forma revenue of approximately $43.3 billion (based on 2023 numbers), DSV said.
After removing that unit, Deutsche Bahn retains its core business called the “Systemverbund Bahn,” which includes passenger transport activities in Germany, rail freight activities, operational service units, and railroad infrastructure companies. The DB Group, headquartered in Berlin, employs around 340,000 people.
“We have set clear goals to structurally modernize Deutsche Bahn in the areas of infrastructure, operations and profitability and focus on the core business. The proceeds from the sale will significantly reduce DB’s debt and thus make an important contribution to the financial stability of the DB Group. At the same time, DB Schenker will gain a strong strategic owner in DSV,” Deutsche Bahn CEO Richard Lutz said in a release.
Transportation industry veteran Anne Reinke will become president & CEO of trade group the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) at the end of the year, stepping into the position from her previous post leading third party logistics (3PL) trade group the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), both organizations said today.
Meanwhile, TIA today announced that insider Christopher Burroughs would fill Reinke’s shoes as president & CEO. Burroughs has been with TIA for 13 years, most recently as its vice president of Government Affairs for the past six years, during which time he oversaw all legislative and regulatory efforts before Congress and the federal agencies.
Before her four years leading TIA, Reinke spent two years as Deputy Assistant Secretary with the U.S. Department of Transportation and 16 years with CSX Corporation.
Serious inland flooding and widespread power outages are likely to sweep across Florida and other Southeast states in coming days with the arrival of Hurricane Helene, which is now predicted to make landfall Thursday evening along Florida’s northwest coast as a major hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the most catastrophic landfall impact is expected in the sparsely-population Big Bend area of Florida, it’s not only sea-front cities that are at risk. Since Helene is an “unusually large storm,” its flooding, rainfall, and high winds won’t be limited only to the Gulf Coast, but are expected to travel hundreds of miles inland, the weather service said. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin in the region even before the storm comes ashore, and the wet conditions will continue to move northward into the southern Appalachians region through Friday, dumping storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches. Specifically, the major flood risk includes the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta, and western North Carolina.
In addition to its human toll, the storm could exert serious business impacts, according to the supply chain mapping and monitoring firm Resilinc. Those will be largely triggered by significant flooding, which could halt oil operations, force mandatory evacuations, restrict ports, and disrupt air traffic.
While the storm’s track is currently forecast to miss the critical ports of Miami and New Orleans, it could still hurt operations throughout the Southeast agricultural belt, which produces products like soybeans, cotton, peanuts, corn, and tobacco, according to Everstream Analytics.
That widespread footprint could also hinder supply chain and logistics flows along stretches of interstate highways I-10 and I-75 and on regional rail lines operated by Norfolk Southern and CSX. And Hurricane Helene could also likely impact business operations by unleashing power outages, deep flooding, and wind damage in northern Florida portions of Georgia, Everstream Analytics said.
Before the storm had even touched Florida soil, recovery efforts were already being launched by humanitarian aid group the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN). In a statement on Wednesday, the group said it is urging residents in the storm's path across the Southeast to heed evacuation notices and safety advisories, and reminding members of the logistics community that their post-storm help could be needed soon. The group will continue to update its Disaster Micro-Site with Hurricane Helene resources and with requests for donated logistics assistance, most of which will start arriving within 24 to 72 hours after the storm’s initial landfall, ALAN said.