Sometime down the road: interview with Phil Koopman
Phil Koopman has been studying autonomous vehicle technologies since the 1990s. That makes him the perfect person to ask, When will we see automated cars and trucks on our highways?
David Maloney has been a journalist for more than 35 years and is currently the group editorial director for DC Velocity and Supply Chain Quarterly magazines. In this role, he is responsible for the editorial content of both brands of Agile Business Media. Dave joined DC Velocity in April of 2004. Prior to that, he was a senior editor for Modern Materials Handling magazine. Dave also has extensive experience as a broadcast journalist. Before writing for supply chain publications, he was a journalist, television producer and director in Pittsburgh. Dave combines a background of reporting on logistics with his video production experience to bring new opportunities to DC Velocity readers, including web videos highlighting top distribution and logistics facilities, webcasts and other cross-media projects. He continues to live and work in the Pittsburgh area.
If you’re wondering when we will see autonomous vehicles traveling down our nation’s highways, don’t hold your breath. At least that’s the word from Dr. Phil Koopman, who has been tracking the development of autonomous vehicle technologies for more than 25 years.
An associate professor at Carnegie Mellon University’s (CMU) electrical and computer engineering department, Koopman is a leading expert on driverless vehicles and the safety systems they require. He has extensive experience in software safety and quality, and as a CMU faculty member, he teaches young engineers the software skills needed for mission-critical systems. He recently spoke to DC Velocity Group Editorial Director David Maloney about the prospects for autonomous vehicle technologies and the challenges they present.
PHIL KOOPMAN
Q: You’ve been working on autonomous vehicle technologies for more than 25 years. Why has it taken so long for these technologies to reach their potential?
A: I started getting involved back in the mid-1990s. I worked with the Carnegie Mellon University Nav Lab team, which hired me as the safety guy. Just before they took me on, they had gone coast to coast [with an autonomous vehicle], from Washington, D.C., to San Diego. It was 98% hands-off-the-wheel. Think about it: 98% hands-off-the-wheel, coast to coast in 1995! I got hired because after that trip, they were like, “You know, maybe we need a safety guy.”
And then, I think it was 1998, there was an automated highway system demo, where they closed off part of the freeway near San Diego and drove a bunch of platoon cars and a city bus down the road—no hands on the wheel on a closed stretch of interstate highway. Again, almost 25 years ago, right? So, the way I like to look at it is that we were 98% hands-off-the-wheel across the country in 1995, and ever since, we’ve been working on that last 2%.
Q: Why has it taken so long?
A: Well, the catch is the last 2% is really tough, and this is fundamental to the issues of this industry. You can have a vehicle that is good at the easy stuff—and that is certainly an impressive achievement—but we have been there since the 1990s in some sense. It is really that last 2% that’s tough because it is always something new. It is something you haven’t seen before. There is an infinite variety of weird stuff in the world, and handling it all turns out to be a lot harder than people want it to be.
Q: There are a lot of driver-assist technologies available on our cars today—lane departure, automatic braking. Even my Toyota can pretty much park itself. Are these merely steps toward autonomy?
A: They are a contribution. In reality, what was going on in the ’90s was more like that than full autonomy. It was automatic lane keeping and things that today we call driver-assistance. Those are important to have, but making those better and better doesn’t actually solve the autonomy problem. The reason you need a human operator in the driver-assistance vehicles is that the machine learning part is good at knowing what it knows, but it is really, really “brittle” at stuff that it hasn’t seen before. That’s the purpose of having a human driver—to deal with the stuff it hasn’t seen before.
Q: So, when will we realistically see autonomous trucks on our highways?
A: It is more a question of how than when. If you want to completely replace a truck driver, that is a long way in the distant future—and by the way, truck drivers do more than drive. I don’t have to tell your audience that. But even for just the driving part, it is a long way off if you don’t want to put any limitations on what is going on.
If you’re willing to do something like take one stretch of interstate highway, and every day somebody goes through and makes sure all the lane markers are there and there haven’t been any paint or oil spills to obscure the lane markers and there’s no big pile of sand and there hasn’t been a landslide and everything is perfect—if you’re willing to do that and maybe there is a guide vehicle that the automated trucks all follow in a conga line and the guide vehicle is responsible for making sure that if there’s an animal on the road, it gets scared off—if you’re willing to make those kinds of concessions, it could happen in the next few years. But I don’t see next year somebody just saying, “OK, here are a thousand trucks. Let ’er rip!” I don’t see that coming as soon as a lot of people are saying.
Q: Do you see that as the next step—where you’d have a lead vehicle with a driver that’s followed by a platoon of autonomous trucks?
A: I think that a guide vehicle makes a lot more sense than just having every truck do everything in the next year. But I don’t see anyone trying to commercialize that.
Q: Do you think there are going to be dedicated lanes for autonomous trucks—or even dedicated highways?
A: It is really hard to know how that is going to go. There is a tradeoff between how much infrastructure you want and how hard it is to get the vehicle to do everything a human driver would do. I would think it is completely reasonable to do things like have dedicated on/off ramps at logistics centers. Maybe there is an HOV lane. It is going to depend on the road. It is going to depend on conditions.
Another way to go is to have designated times of day—periods when traffic is light—for autonomous trucks to use the highway. The more you have the road to yourself, the easier it is to ensure safety.
Q: You and I live both live in Pittsburgh, where they’ve been testing autonomous vehicles on city streets for a number of years. But wouldn’t it be easier to test the technology on interstates and limited-access highways than in urban environments?
A: Well, we are going to see everything. Right now in Arizona, Waymo is in fact running robo-taxis without drivers in a very, very benign environment.
The thing about urban roads versus highways is not that one is easier; it is that the challenges are different. In urban environments, you have a lot of crazy stuff happening all the time. It can be a very chaotic environment, depending on where you’re driving, but the good news is that if you’re driving slowly enough, a lot of times you can just jam on the brakes and you’re fine. You just have to know when to jam them on.
If you are on a truck going 60, 70, or 80 miles an hour, however, jamming on the brakes isn’t a very attractive option because you’ve got a lot of weight and mass—and a lot of momentum. So, it is less about weird chaotic stuff, like pedestrians jumping off curbs in front of you, and much more about planning ahead. I would say intuitively it feels like the highways are easier, but it isn’t that easy; it is just that the problems are different.
Q: We have seen a lot of advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence over the last few years. How much will these technologies play into the development of autonomous vehicles?
A: Artificial intelligence means the stuff that is really hard to do. And every 10 years, its meaning changes because some things become easy, while the next thing is hard. People tend to use “AI” as a catchall term for all the new technology, but it doesn’t really mean anything.
Machine learning, on the other hand, is a very specific technique. In machine learning, you show the computer system a bunch of examples and it performs a statistical analysis. And then if it sees a new sample, it will compare that new sample with the original sample. So, if it sees a person, it doesn’t actually know it’s a person. It says, “You know, that thing looks a lot like all the other people I have seen before, so it must be a person.” And that is great.
If you train it on things that it has seen, it works great. But that is like 98% or 99%. If there is something it has never seen before, it not only struggles, but it doesn’t even know that it doesn’t know what’s going on.
For example, there was a case where the system was having trouble seeing people wearing yellow. It turned out that this system hadn’t been trained to recognize anyone in yellow, and so, if you were wearing yellow, you were basically camouflaged from the machine learning system, which is not so great if you’re directing traffic at a construction site or you’re a bicyclist in a yellow raincoat.
So, the instances where it makes weird, crazy, or stupid mistakes sometimes come as a real surprise to people, and that is why I was talking about the “long tail,” the rare things that you haven’t seen before. That is why everything is taking longer than everyone wants it to.
Q: In the logistics market, there are obvious advantages to using autonomous vehicles, such as helping to alleviate the truck driver shortage. There are other benefits as well—trucks can be spaced closer together, which could help with congestion on our highways, and driverless trucks might be able to operate for longer stretches of time if they’re exempt from the driver hours-of-service regulations. What are the main benefits that will help push this technology along in the next few years?
A: Well, let me go back to the jobs thing because that is so central. If someone is a truck driver today, I don’t think they should worry about losing their job before they’re ready to retire. This technology is going to take a long time to take hold.
And even if there are a thousand [autonomous] trucks on the roads in the next four or five years, that is just a drop in the bucket. It’s going to take a long time to scale this technology up to be able to go on roads that aren’t the easiest, most benign roads. So, the scare headlines about truckers being out of a job next year—that is just not going to happen. On the other hand, I think the prospect of finding some relief from the driver shortage is fantastic.
In terms of other things, all of the things you mentioned hinge on safety. Until we can get safety right, none of that good stuff is going to happen. And the industry is at a point where it is just now starting to really think hard about safety.
There is a saying we have in the computer world that the first 90% of the project takes the first 90% of the time. And the last 10% of the project takes the other 90% of the time. Ultimately, it boils down to, Can you really ensure these things are going to be at least as safe as a human driver? We are not at the point yet where we have an answer to that, so there is still some more work to be done.
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The British logistics robot vendor Dexory this week said it has raised $80 million in venture funding to support an expansion of its artificial intelligence (AI) powered features, grow its global team, and accelerate the deployment of its autonomous robots.
A “significant focus” continues to be on expanding across the U.S. market, where Dexory is live with customers in seven states and last month opened a U.S. headquarters in Nashville. The Series B will also enhance development and production facilities at its UK headquarters, the firm said.
The “series B” funding round was led by DTCP, with participation from Latitude Ventures, Wave-X and Bootstrap Europe, along with existing investors Atomico, Lakestar, Capnamic, and several angels from the logistics industry. With the close of the round, Dexory has now raised $120 million over the past three years.
Dexory says its product, DexoryView, provides real-time visibility across warehouses of any size through its autonomous mobile robots and AI. The rolling bots use sensor and image data and continuous data collection to perform rapid warehouse scans and create digital twins of warehouse spaces, allowing for optimized performance and future scenario simulations.
Originally announced in September, the move will allow Deutsche Bahn to “fully focus on restructuring the rail infrastructure in Germany and providing climate-friendly passenger and freight transport operations in Germany and Europe,” Werner Gatzer, Chairman of the DB Supervisory Board, said in a release.
For its purchase price, DSV gains an organization with around 72,700 employees at over 1,850 locations. The new owner says it plans to investment around one billion euros in coming years to promote additional growth in German operations. Together, DSV and Schenker will have a combined workforce of approximately 147,000 employees in more than 90 countries, earning pro forma revenue of approximately $43.3 billion (based on 2023 numbers), DSV said.
After removing that unit, Deutsche Bahn retains its core business called the “Systemverbund Bahn,” which includes passenger transport activities in Germany, rail freight activities, operational service units, and railroad infrastructure companies. The DB Group, headquartered in Berlin, employs around 340,000 people.
“We have set clear goals to structurally modernize Deutsche Bahn in the areas of infrastructure, operations and profitability and focus on the core business. The proceeds from the sale will significantly reduce DB’s debt and thus make an important contribution to the financial stability of the DB Group. At the same time, DB Schenker will gain a strong strategic owner in DSV,” Deutsche Bahn CEO Richard Lutz said in a release.
Transportation industry veteran Anne Reinke will become president & CEO of trade group the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) at the end of the year, stepping into the position from her previous post leading third party logistics (3PL) trade group the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), both organizations said today.
Meanwhile, TIA today announced that insider Christopher Burroughs would fill Reinke’s shoes as president & CEO. Burroughs has been with TIA for 13 years, most recently as its vice president of Government Affairs for the past six years, during which time he oversaw all legislative and regulatory efforts before Congress and the federal agencies.
Before her four years leading TIA, Reinke spent two years as Deputy Assistant Secretary with the U.S. Department of Transportation and 16 years with CSX Corporation.
Serious inland flooding and widespread power outages are likely to sweep across Florida and other Southeast states in coming days with the arrival of Hurricane Helene, which is now predicted to make landfall Thursday evening along Florida’s northwest coast as a major hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the most catastrophic landfall impact is expected in the sparsely-population Big Bend area of Florida, it’s not only sea-front cities that are at risk. Since Helene is an “unusually large storm,” its flooding, rainfall, and high winds won’t be limited only to the Gulf Coast, but are expected to travel hundreds of miles inland, the weather service said. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin in the region even before the storm comes ashore, and the wet conditions will continue to move northward into the southern Appalachians region through Friday, dumping storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches. Specifically, the major flood risk includes the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta, and western North Carolina.
In addition to its human toll, the storm could exert serious business impacts, according to the supply chain mapping and monitoring firm Resilinc. Those will be largely triggered by significant flooding, which could halt oil operations, force mandatory evacuations, restrict ports, and disrupt air traffic.
While the storm’s track is currently forecast to miss the critical ports of Miami and New Orleans, it could still hurt operations throughout the Southeast agricultural belt, which produces products like soybeans, cotton, peanuts, corn, and tobacco, according to Everstream Analytics.
That widespread footprint could also hinder supply chain and logistics flows along stretches of interstate highways I-10 and I-75 and on regional rail lines operated by Norfolk Southern and CSX. And Hurricane Helene could also likely impact business operations by unleashing power outages, deep flooding, and wind damage in northern Florida portions of Georgia, Everstream Analytics said.
Before the storm had even touched Florida soil, recovery efforts were already being launched by humanitarian aid group the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN). In a statement on Wednesday, the group said it is urging residents in the storm's path across the Southeast to heed evacuation notices and safety advisories, and reminding members of the logistics community that their post-storm help could be needed soon. The group will continue to update its Disaster Micro-Site with Hurricane Helene resources and with requests for donated logistics assistance, most of which will start arriving within 24 to 72 hours after the storm’s initial landfall, ALAN said.