Keeping the supply chain moving in turbulent times
How is technology helping transportation and logistics keep up with the accelerating pace of change? Experts share their insights in this special Modex 2022 preview.
David Maloney has been a journalist for more than 35 years and is currently the group editorial director for DC Velocity and Supply Chain Quarterly magazines. In this role, he is responsible for the editorial content of both brands of Agile Business Media. Dave joined DC Velocity in April of 2004. Prior to that, he was a senior editor for Modern Materials Handling magazine. Dave also has extensive experience as a broadcast journalist. Before writing for supply chain publications, he was a journalist, television producer and director in Pittsburgh. Dave combines a background of reporting on logistics with his video production experience to bring new opportunities to DC Velocity readers, including web videos highlighting top distribution and logistics facilities, webcasts and other cross-media projects. He continues to live and work in the Pittsburgh area.
Joe Wilkinson, Vice President, Consulting, enVista
During the past two years, even those who had never heard the term “supply chain” have seen—and personally experienced—just how much transportation and logistics affects our daily lives. It’s become clearer than ever that when the going gets tough, smart strategies supported by advanced technology are critical for tackling transportation and logistics challenges.
To find out what the future holds in this regard, DC Velocity Group Editorial Director David Maloney recently gathered three experts from companies participating in the DC Velocity Transportation & Logistics Theater at the upcoming Modex 2022 show in Atlanta to discuss a range of topics, including how technology can help to keep merchandise moving and provide customers with the service they want.
Q: Are there some common-sense steps shippers can take to alleviate the impact of the transportation bottlenecks the industry is experiencing?
Joe Wilkinson – enVista: The most common strategy for easing capacity constraints (and cost pressure) is carrier diversification. While there can be an initial hard-dollar cost to implementing carrier diversification, those initial investments pay dividends in the future and serve as insurance when capacity shrinks and more options are needed. Spreading volumes across modes is another option. Positioning inventory in stores via truckload/LTL store replenishment can, in some cases, enable ship-from-store fulfillment. This needs to be enabled by technology, staff, and facilities. But where it can be achieved, pressure can be relieved in the first and middle miles.
Raj Patel – Blue Yonder: One thing we have learned is that supply chain disruptions are a constant, and they seem to be happening more often. Take a look at last year’s Suez Canal situation or the Port of Yantian closure. To succeed, organizations need to have visibility into all aspects of their supply chain. Without this end-to-end visibility, how can they get ahead of issues in a timely manner and properly address them? Organizations also need to learn how to leverage that visibility to anticipate future issues and deduce solutions.
I have hope that this surge will stabilize over time and allow companies to catch their breath, because this system isn’t sustainable the way it’s currently operating. In the meantime, using labor management tools can help forecast shortages on the horizon and ensure employees are engaged and incentivized in their day-to-day work, which will help keep goods flowing. In the case of another three- to six-month global shutdown, extensive government involvement would be needed to keep manufacturing and the supply chain moving.
Q: What are the most significant changes you’ve seen in your industry over the past 20 years?
Raj Patel – Blue Yonder: The first is going from a “push” supply chain to a customer-centric supply chain. Consumers are in control now. They dictate what they want, where they want it, how they want it, and the price they are willing to pay. This is very different from 20 years ago, when retailers would use planning and forecasting to predict what they thought customers were looking for and then pushed that product out.
The second is the change in technology strategy. Twenty years ago, it was all about a single vendor/provider ecosystem, on-premise deployment, and long-lasting relationships. Then it went to “best of breed,” but still on-premise and with shorter relationships. Today, you are looking at going back to a single vendor in most cases, but in a cloud/SaaS model, and with shorter contract terms, as the cost to change is lower than for on-premise.
Q: Has the rise of e-commerce significantly changed transportation?
Joe Wilkinson – enVista: The rise of e-commerce is not a new phenomenon. Each year, experts make what seem to be wildly aggressive projections about peak volumes, and each year, the market surprises to the upside.
E-commerce has driven down transit time expectations dramatically. In the ’70s and ’80s, catalog order delivery times were measured in weeks. Now, we’re at a two-day standard, with same-day delivery expected in a lot of metro areas. All of this while residential deliveries have driven delivery densities down and drive time between stops up. This has had the effect of making shippers’ delivery times a big part of their brand identity and has forced transportation teams to continually optimize their processes to protect the brand’s reputation.
Q: How can real-time shipment information improve the customer experience?
Don DeLash – SICK: As the pandemic has continued to accelerate e-commerce and same-day delivery demands, the evolution of logistics technologies and processes has also accelerated to keep pace. An emerging trend is the implementation of data-capture and information technologies that support dynamic real-time package routing and routing adjustments. By integrating unique package identifiers, whether in the form of package or label data, 1D or 2D bar codes, or RFID, shippers gain the ability to make in-transit decisions about package delivery destinations.
For example, if a retailer ships a parcel from Pittsburgh to an online customer in Seattle, but while in transit that item becomes available from a facility (such as a store or warehouse) locally [in the Seattle area], the retailer can re-route that package to a customer who ordered the same product in Columbus, Ohio, or to a store in Detroit that is low on inventory of that item. When this type of dynamic transportation management is implemented across a network, the substantial improvement in customer experience becomes evident.
Raj Patel – Blue Yonder: Increased use of technological solutions like control towers provides real-time data and visibility, allowing companies to better control product flow. In a world of constant disruptions and crises, this technology offers early detection of problems and quick corrective actions that help keep products in stock and customer experiences positive.
All in all, companies will be leveraging data more than ever to determine what to make for consumers, where to manufacture and at what cost, and what service it or its third-party logistics providers (3PLs) can afford to offer. Preparation starts with what technology you have, and determining whether the data is being shared across the enterprise and decisions are being made holistically and in real time versus in silos. Those that have figured that out will succeed and continue to prosper, while others will struggle to make daily tactical decisions that will impact bottom lines.
Q: As you’ve just noted, customers expect quicker deliveries now. Can warehouse technology speed truck turns at facilities?
Don DeLash – SICK: Companies in the supply chain continue to look for ways to speed trailer loading and unloading at warehouses and distribution centers. Existing, proven methods, such as inbound product ID and destination labeling, support cross-dock and automated storage and retrieval systems. These technologies lead to greater agility and improved customer satisfaction. With the broader adoption of robotics in warehouse operations, automated methods for trailer loading and unloading using robotics are being designed and tested at an increasing pace.
Raj Patel – Blue Yonder: Deploying warehouse management and labor management technologies was a growing strategy before the Covid-19 pandemic, but that seems to have accelerated even further since the pandemic began. These technologies allow employers to consider engineering standard constraints and other warehouse-related constraints when they incentivize, monitor, and schedule their workforce. More efficient workforces lead to quicker turns, shorter wait times at docks, and more efficient transportation.
Q: What are some ways to improve the visibility of goods in transit?
Don DeLash – SICK: Asset-tracking technologies coupled with cloud-based access to information provide the platform from which visibility of goods in transit can be achieved at increased levels of specificity in terms of timeliness and accuracy. Underlying data-capture and analytics systems can provide specific information about products and items in terms of identification and condition. Proven sensing technology provides information about package or freight condition, movement, temperature, handling, and other characteristics. When all this data sits on a cloud-based analytics and user interface platform, visibility and efficiency can be greatly enhanced.
Raj Patel – Blue Yonder: Control towers are central to unlocking deep real-time visibility into goods in transit. They centralize visibility across companies’ entire global networks, making it possible to see where shipments are sitting, whether they’ll be delayed, and even at which specific ports and warehouses they are.
Q: Can good transportation management improve cubing and utilization?
Joe Wilkinson – enVista: Tier 1 transportation management systems (TMS) have the ability to create a blueprint for how to effectively load your trailer or container. This requires very accurate data for eaches, cases, pallets, and so forth. But you do not have to go this route in order to increase your trailer utilization. With accurate skid, cube, or weight data, you can analyze your lane volume and determine your trailer-utilization percentage. This will allow you to see the delta from your acceptable threshold and begin working to improve your bracket pricing, load scheduling, and product allocation in order to capitalize on the opportunity.
Q: How will artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning affect the future design of transportation systems?
Joe Wilkinson – enVista: The two key areas where AI or machine learning can have the quickest impact on transportation management systems are data recognition and exception management. Being able to have the TMS recognize bad or missing data, and then know how to correct it or who to notify, has a direct impact on service and labor costs.
Exception management is the key to a successful transportation operation, and increasing your ability to predetermine which shipments will be late or might be missing will be a differentiator in the marketplace. Being able to link past carrier, lane, seasonal performance, and other data to accurately depict transit and on-time estimates allows for better decision-making and the ability to be proactive.
Worldwide air cargo rates rose to a 2024 high in November of $2.76 per kilo, despite a slight (-2%) drop in flown tonnages compared with October, according to analysis by WorldACD Market data.
The healthy rate comes as demand and pricing both remain significantly above their already elevated levels last November, the Dutch firm said.
The new figures reflect worldwide air cargo markets that remain relatively strong, including shipments originating in the Asia Pacific, but where good advance planning by air cargo stakeholders looks set to avert a major peak season capacity crunch and very steep rate rises in the final weeks of the year, WorldACD said.
Despite that effective planning, average worldwide rates in November rose by 6% month on month (MoM), based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, taking them to their highest level since January 2023 and 11% higher, year on year (YoY). The biggest MoM increases came from Europe (+10%) and Central & South America (+9%) origins, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
But overall global tonnages in November were down -2%, MoM, with the biggest percentage decline coming from Middle East & South Asia (-11%) origins, which have been highly elevated for most of this year. But the -4%, MoM, decrease from Europe origins was responsible for a similar drop in tonnage terms – reflecting reduced passenger belly capacity since the start of aviation’s winter season from 27 October, including cuts in passenger services by European carriers to and from China.
Each of those points could have a stark impact on business operations, the firm said. First, supply chain restrictions will continue to drive up costs, following examples like European tariffs on Chinese autos and the U.S. plan to prevent Chinese software and hardware from entering cars in America.
Second, reputational risk will peak due to increased corporate transparency and due diligence laws, such as Germany’s Supply Chain Due Diligence Act that addresses hotpoint issues like modern slavery, forced labor, human trafficking, and environmental damage. In an age when polarized public opinion is combined with ever-present social media, doing business with a supplier whom a lot of your customers view negatively will be hard to navigate.
And third, advances in data, technology, and supplier risk assessments will enable executives to measure the impact of disruptions more effectively. Those calculations can help organizations determine whether their risk mitigation strategies represent value for money when compared to the potential revenues losses in the event of a supply chain disruption.
“Looking past the holidays, retailers will need to prepare for the typical challenges posed by seasonal slowdown in consumer demand. This year, however, there will be much less of a lull, as U.S. companies are accelerating some purchases that could potentially be impacted by a new wave of tariffs on U.S. imports,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management Solutions at Moody’s, said in a release. “Tariffs, sanctions and other supply chain restrictions will likely be top of the 2025 agenda for procurement executives.”
As holiday shoppers blitz through the final weeks of the winter peak shopping season, a survey from the postal and shipping solutions provider Stamps.com shows that 40% of U.S. consumers are unaware of holiday shipping deadlines, leaving them at risk of running into last-minute scrambles, higher shipping costs, and packages arriving late.
The survey also found a generational difference in holiday shipping deadline awareness, with 53% of Baby Boomers unaware of these cut-off dates, compared to just 32% of Millennials. Millennials are also more likely to prioritize guaranteed delivery, with 68% citing it as a key factor when choosing a shipping option this holiday season.
Of those surveyed, 66% have experienced holiday shipping delays, with Gen Z reporting the highest rate of delays at 73%, compared to 49% of Baby Boomers. That statistical spread highlights a conclusion that younger generations are less tolerant of delays and prioritize fast and efficient shipping, researchers said. The data came from a study of 1,000 U.S. consumers conducted in October 2024 to understand their shopping habits and preferences.
As they cope with that tight shipping window, a huge 83% of surveyed consumers are willing to pay extra for faster shipping to avoid the prospect of a late-arriving gift. This trend is especially strong among Gen Z, with 56% willing to pay up, compared to just 27% of Baby Boomers.
“As the holiday season approaches, it’s crucial for consumers to be prepared and aware of shipping deadlines to ensure their gifts arrive on time,” Nick Spitzman, General Manager of Stamps.com, said in a release. ”Our survey highlights the significant portion of consumers who are unaware of these deadlines, particularly older generations. It’s essential for retailers and shipping carriers to provide clear and timely information about shipping deadlines to help consumers avoid last-minute stress and disappointment.”
For best results, Stamps.com advises consumers to begin holiday shopping early and familiarize themselves with shipping deadlines across carriers. That is especially true with Thanksgiving falling later this year, meaning the holiday season is shorter and planning ahead is even more essential.
According to Stamps.com, key shipping deadlines include:
December 13, 2024: Last day for FedEx Ground Economy
December 18, 2024: Last day for USPS Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail
December 19, 2024: Last day for UPS 3 Day Select and USPS Priority Mail
December 20, 2024: Last day for UPS 2nd Day Air
December 21, 2024: Last day for USPS Priority Mail Express
Measured over the entire year of 2024, retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales will be returned. But that total figure includes a spike of returns during the holidays; a separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate.
Despite the cost of handling that massive reverse logistics task, retailers grin and bear it because product returns are so tightly integrated with brand loyalty, offering companies an additional touchpoint to provide a positive interaction with their customers, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. According to NRF’s research, 76% of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again. And 84% of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
So in response to consumer demand, retailers continue to enhance the return experience for customers. More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months. In addition, improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
However, retailers also must balance meeting consumer demand for seamless returns against rising costs. Fraudulent and abusive returns practices create both logistical and financial challenges for retailers. A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business. In terms of abuse, bracketing – purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some – has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration – they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said in a release. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
The research came from two complementary surveys conducted this fall, allowing NRF and Happy Returns to compare perspectives from both sides. They included one that gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, and another from 249 e-commerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers.
The “series A” round was led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Y Combinator and strategic industry investors, including RyderVentures. It follows an earlier, previously undisclosed, pre-seed round raised 1.5 years ago, that was backed by Array Ventures and other angel investors.
“Our mission is to redefine the economics of the freight industry by harnessing the power of agentic AI,ˮ Pablo Palafox, HappyRobotʼs co-founder and CEO, said in a release. “This funding will enable us to accelerate product development, expand and support our customer base, and ultimately transform how logistics businesses operate.ˮ
According to the firm, its conversational AI platform uses agentic AI—a term for systems that can autonomously make decisions and take actions to achieve specific goals—to simplify logistics operations. HappyRobot says its tech can automate tasks like inbound and outbound calls, carrier negotiations, and data capture, thus enabling brokers to enhance efficiency and capacity, improve margins, and free up human agents to focus on higher-value activities.
“Today, the logistics industry underpinning our global economy is stretched,” Anish Acharya, general partner at a16z, said. “As a key part of the ecosystem, even small to midsize freight brokers can make and receive hundreds, if not thousands, of calls per day – and hiring for this job is increasingly difficult. By providing customers with autonomous decision making, HappyRobotʼs agentic AI platform helps these brokers operate more reliably and efficiently.ˮ