Ben Ames has spent 20 years as a journalist since starting out as a daily newspaper reporter in Pennsylvania in 1995. From 1999 forward, he has focused on business and technology reporting for a number of trade journals, beginning when he joined Design News and Modern Materials Handling magazines. Ames is author of the trail guide "Hiking Massachusetts" and is a graduate of the Columbia School of Journalism.
As parcel carriers throughout the industry wrestle with rising package volumes sparked by the triple-whammy impact of booming e-commerce, pandemic online shoppers, and the winter holiday peak, FedEx Corp. says it sees a solution in new technologies that have been pressed into service much sooner than most of the industry expected.
Under pressure from those market forces, online shopping is expected to reach record levels in the coming weeks, leading to a peak holiday season unlike any other, the Memphis-based firm said. Prior to the pandemic, FedEx had projected that the U.S. domestic economy would hit 100 million packages per day by calendar year 2026, but it now projects the market will hit that mark three years sooner than expected, cresting that level by 2023.
To handle the surge, FedEx says it has invested in advanced technologies and intelligent automation solutions, the company said in an “Innovation Showcase” webcast today. “We’ve been in peak since the beginning of the pandemic, and now we’re going to put peak on top of peak,” Rob Carter, FedEx’ executive vice president and CIO, said in the event.
In response, the company is leaning heavily on solutions like robotic sorting arms, mobile pick-by-light systems, autonomous DC tugs, last-mile delivery bots, and wireless package tags, the company’s executives said.
FedEx is currently using four robotic arms installed in March at its Memphis sorting hub, according to Aaron Prather, senior technical advisor at FedEx Express. Provided by the vendors PlusOne Robotics and Yaskawa Motoman, they currently run eight hours per day, sorting 1,200 to 1,300 packages per hour across a variety of parcels such as letters, small boxes, and “polymorphic” items that change shape as they move through the system.
Warehouse employees have named the arms Sue, Randall, Colin, and Bobby, but they will soon have to come up with additional monikers when FedEx expands the program after this winter’s peak season passes, Prather said.
One challenge in that process is handling e-commerce packages at the smallest and largest ends of the spectrum, so to handle big packages, FedEx deploys autonomous tugs from Vecna Robotics to move big boxes within the building, said Ted Dengel, managing director, operations technology and innovation, FedEx Ground. In the future, the company plans to extend that pattern outside the four walls of the DC and will pilot similar tugs for autonomous operations outdoors in the yard, moving trailers to and from dock doors, he said.
Once packages reach the loading dock, a different kind of technology takes over, according to Katherine King, a senior engineer with FedEx Express. The company’s “cargo recognition and organization system” (COROS), developed with Mercedes Benz, uses a combination of a camera and vision system, pick and put by light, and real time tracking. Mounted inside a FedEx delivery van, the COROS system guides workers on where to place packages inside the vehicle. First it automatically scans barcodes on packages, then identifies each package and determines its destination along a driver’s route, and flashes lights on specific shelves to guide the optimal loading pattern for boxes inside the van.
FedEx plans to expand the system soon as “COROS Scan Gate,” installed at dock locations to provide that same type of hands-free scanning and processing to speed up visibility and “to eliminate individual touchpoints at the extreme ends of the package delivery process,” King said.
At the final end of the delivery process, FedEx is now testing an autonomous last mile delivery vehicle known as “Roxo,” built on an iBot base from Deka Research, according to Brian Philips, president and CEO of FedEx Office. Each unit is a small, rolling bot that navigates city streets, carrying packages to homes and covering not just the last mile but the “last 50 feet,” as it climbs curbs, sidewalks, and front steps. Currently rolling down streets in Memphis and in Manchester, New Hampshire, the Roxo bots cruise a three to five-mile radius carrying up to 100 pounds. They are typically stationed at local spots like retailers, restaurants, and pharmacies, so they can be dispatched faster than a courier or crowdsourced carrier could respond, Philips said.
The company favors the new platform both for its speed of dispatch and for its efficiency, Carter said, commenting that “It makes more sense than using a 3,000-pound car driving around with a person inside of it, just to deliver a three-pound pizza.”
And the final step in FedEx’ application of new technologies during the e-commerce surge is its SenseAware platform, which uses physical tracking tags attached to parcels to create a “smart package” network with enhanced location and visibility for safety and security, Carter said. Each tag makes frequent transmissions using the Bluetooth Low Energy spectrum to communicate with WiFi access points, and the network will eventually connect to a new platform called FedEx Surround, which will emerge from a collaboration between FedEx and Microsoft Corp. announced in May.
Worldwide air cargo rates rose to a 2024 high in November of $2.76 per kilo, despite a slight (-2%) drop in flown tonnages compared with October, according to analysis by WorldACD Market data.
The healthy rate comes as demand and pricing both remain significantly above their already elevated levels last November, the Dutch firm said.
The new figures reflect worldwide air cargo markets that remain relatively strong, including shipments originating in the Asia Pacific, but where good advance planning by air cargo stakeholders looks set to avert a major peak season capacity crunch and very steep rate rises in the final weeks of the year, WorldACD said.
Despite that effective planning, average worldwide rates in November rose by 6% month on month (MoM), based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, taking them to their highest level since January 2023 and 11% higher, year on year (YoY). The biggest MoM increases came from Europe (+10%) and Central & South America (+9%) origins, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
But overall global tonnages in November were down -2%, MoM, with the biggest percentage decline coming from Middle East & South Asia (-11%) origins, which have been highly elevated for most of this year. But the -4%, MoM, decrease from Europe origins was responsible for a similar drop in tonnage terms – reflecting reduced passenger belly capacity since the start of aviation’s winter season from 27 October, including cuts in passenger services by European carriers to and from China.
Each of those points could have a stark impact on business operations, the firm said. First, supply chain restrictions will continue to drive up costs, following examples like European tariffs on Chinese autos and the U.S. plan to prevent Chinese software and hardware from entering cars in America.
Second, reputational risk will peak due to increased corporate transparency and due diligence laws, such as Germany’s Supply Chain Due Diligence Act that addresses hotpoint issues like modern slavery, forced labor, human trafficking, and environmental damage. In an age when polarized public opinion is combined with ever-present social media, doing business with a supplier whom a lot of your customers view negatively will be hard to navigate.
And third, advances in data, technology, and supplier risk assessments will enable executives to measure the impact of disruptions more effectively. Those calculations can help organizations determine whether their risk mitigation strategies represent value for money when compared to the potential revenues losses in the event of a supply chain disruption.
“Looking past the holidays, retailers will need to prepare for the typical challenges posed by seasonal slowdown in consumer demand. This year, however, there will be much less of a lull, as U.S. companies are accelerating some purchases that could potentially be impacted by a new wave of tariffs on U.S. imports,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management Solutions at Moody’s, said in a release. “Tariffs, sanctions and other supply chain restrictions will likely be top of the 2025 agenda for procurement executives.”
As holiday shoppers blitz through the final weeks of the winter peak shopping season, a survey from the postal and shipping solutions provider Stamps.com shows that 40% of U.S. consumers are unaware of holiday shipping deadlines, leaving them at risk of running into last-minute scrambles, higher shipping costs, and packages arriving late.
The survey also found a generational difference in holiday shipping deadline awareness, with 53% of Baby Boomers unaware of these cut-off dates, compared to just 32% of Millennials. Millennials are also more likely to prioritize guaranteed delivery, with 68% citing it as a key factor when choosing a shipping option this holiday season.
Of those surveyed, 66% have experienced holiday shipping delays, with Gen Z reporting the highest rate of delays at 73%, compared to 49% of Baby Boomers. That statistical spread highlights a conclusion that younger generations are less tolerant of delays and prioritize fast and efficient shipping, researchers said. The data came from a study of 1,000 U.S. consumers conducted in October 2024 to understand their shopping habits and preferences.
As they cope with that tight shipping window, a huge 83% of surveyed consumers are willing to pay extra for faster shipping to avoid the prospect of a late-arriving gift. This trend is especially strong among Gen Z, with 56% willing to pay up, compared to just 27% of Baby Boomers.
“As the holiday season approaches, it’s crucial for consumers to be prepared and aware of shipping deadlines to ensure their gifts arrive on time,” Nick Spitzman, General Manager of Stamps.com, said in a release. ”Our survey highlights the significant portion of consumers who are unaware of these deadlines, particularly older generations. It’s essential for retailers and shipping carriers to provide clear and timely information about shipping deadlines to help consumers avoid last-minute stress and disappointment.”
For best results, Stamps.com advises consumers to begin holiday shopping early and familiarize themselves with shipping deadlines across carriers. That is especially true with Thanksgiving falling later this year, meaning the holiday season is shorter and planning ahead is even more essential.
According to Stamps.com, key shipping deadlines include:
December 13, 2024: Last day for FedEx Ground Economy
December 18, 2024: Last day for USPS Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail
December 19, 2024: Last day for UPS 3 Day Select and USPS Priority Mail
December 20, 2024: Last day for UPS 2nd Day Air
December 21, 2024: Last day for USPS Priority Mail Express
Measured over the entire year of 2024, retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales will be returned. But that total figure includes a spike of returns during the holidays; a separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate.
Despite the cost of handling that massive reverse logistics task, retailers grin and bear it because product returns are so tightly integrated with brand loyalty, offering companies an additional touchpoint to provide a positive interaction with their customers, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. According to NRF’s research, 76% of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again. And 84% of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
So in response to consumer demand, retailers continue to enhance the return experience for customers. More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months. In addition, improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
However, retailers also must balance meeting consumer demand for seamless returns against rising costs. Fraudulent and abusive returns practices create both logistical and financial challenges for retailers. A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business. In terms of abuse, bracketing – purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some – has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration – they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said in a release. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
The research came from two complementary surveys conducted this fall, allowing NRF and Happy Returns to compare perspectives from both sides. They included one that gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, and another from 249 e-commerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers.
The “series A” round was led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Y Combinator and strategic industry investors, including RyderVentures. It follows an earlier, previously undisclosed, pre-seed round raised 1.5 years ago, that was backed by Array Ventures and other angel investors.
“Our mission is to redefine the economics of the freight industry by harnessing the power of agentic AI,ˮ Pablo Palafox, HappyRobotʼs co-founder and CEO, said in a release. “This funding will enable us to accelerate product development, expand and support our customer base, and ultimately transform how logistics businesses operate.ˮ
According to the firm, its conversational AI platform uses agentic AI—a term for systems that can autonomously make decisions and take actions to achieve specific goals—to simplify logistics operations. HappyRobot says its tech can automate tasks like inbound and outbound calls, carrier negotiations, and data capture, thus enabling brokers to enhance efficiency and capacity, improve margins, and free up human agents to focus on higher-value activities.
“Today, the logistics industry underpinning our global economy is stretched,” Anish Acharya, general partner at a16z, said. “As a key part of the ecosystem, even small to midsize freight brokers can make and receive hundreds, if not thousands, of calls per day – and hiring for this job is increasingly difficult. By providing customers with autonomous decision making, HappyRobotʼs agentic AI platform helps these brokers operate more reliably and efficiently.ˮ