NRF forecast: 2020 retail import total will be lowest in four years

Imports at major U.S. retail container ports during 2020 are expected to see their lowest total in four years as the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. economy continues, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

U.S. ports handled 1.61 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in June, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was up 4.9% from May but down 10.5% year-over-year, according to the monthly “Global Port Tracker” report released today by the NRF and consulting firm Hackett Associates.

The Global Port Tracker report provides data on the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

“The economy is recovering but retailers are being careful not to import more than they can sell,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “Shelves will be stocked, but this is not the year to be left with warehouses full of unsold merchandise. The more Congress does to put spending money in consumers’ pockets and provide businesses with liquidity, the sooner we can get back to normal.”

Looking to future results, July was estimated at 1.76 million TEU, down 10.2% year-over-year. August is forecast at 1.81 million TEU, down 7.3%; September at 1.69 million TEU, down 9.5%; October also at 1.69 million TEU, down 10.4%; November at 1.59 million TEU, down 5.8%, and December at 1.56 million TEU, down 9.6%.

Summed up, those numbers would bring 2020 to a total of 19.6 million TEU, a drop of 9.4% from last year and the lowest annual total since 19.1 million TEU in 2016. The first half of 2020 totaled 9.5 million TEU, down 10.1% from last year.

“This year, peak season seems to have been thrown off by the coronavirus pandemic along with just about everything else we consider normal,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a release. “We’ve probably already had our busiest month. And with the pandemic taking a hit on the economy ever since then, peak season is likely to be a disappointment by comparison.”

August is expected to be the busiest month of the July-October “peak season” when retailers rush to bring in merchandise for the winter holidays, the report said. But with retailers ordering less merchandise, the month’s total would be the lowest peak for the season since 1.73 million TEU in 2016 and falls far short of the 1.96 million TEU peak in 2019. Peak season usually includes the busiest month of the entire year, but this year that was likely January’s 1.82 million TEU, NRF and Hackett said.

COVID-19’s impact on store traffic: Altered shopping patterns increase the need for retailer transparency. https://t.co/imBhIrk2gg pic.twitter.com/LbY376lalx

— National Retail Federation (@NRFnews) August 7, 2020