Imports at major U.S. retail container ports are estimated to have dropped to their lowest level in five years in March, and are projected to remain “significantly below normal levels” through early summer as the coronavirus pandemic continues, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

While actual numbers for March are not yet available, estimates show that imports plunged to 1.27 million twenty foot equivalent units (TEUs), down 21.3% year-over-year and the lowest level seen since 1.21 million TEU in February 2015 during a labor dispute that caused slowdowns at west coast U.S. ports that winter, according to the Global Port Tracker report released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and consulting firm Hackett Associates.

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.51 million TEUs in February, the latest month for which after-the-fact numbers are available. That was down 17% from January and down 6.8% year-over-year. February numbers are normally lower than January because of annual factory shutdowns in China for Lunar New Year celebrations, but the shutdowns lasted longer than usual and continued into March because of the coronavirus outbreak. 

“The Covid-19 pandemic is unraveling the economy nationally and globally as most of the world moves toward a lockdown that entails the closure of significant portions of both the service and manufacturing industries,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said in a release. “The largest drop is forecast for the first half of this year but with uncertainty about the length of the lockdown and extent of the pandemic, the second half may not be in better shape.”

April is forecast at 1.44 million TEU, down 17.6% year-over-year; May at 1.48 million TEU, down 20.1%; June at 1.41 million TEU, down 21.4%; July at 1.61 million TEU, down 18.2%, and August at 1.72 million TEU, down 12.5%. Overall, the first half of 2020 is forecast to total 8.93 million TEU, down 15.1% from the same period last year. Before the extent of the pandemic was known, the first half of the year was forecast at 10.47 million TEU.

“Even as factories in China have begun to get back to work, we are seeing far fewer imports coming into the United States than previously expected,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release. “Many stores are closed, and consumer demand has been impacted with millions of Americans out of work. However, there are still many essential items that are badly needed and because of store closures cargo may sit longer than usual and cause other supply chain impacts.”