The rise of private fleets (and dedicated operations)
The desire for committed capacity, reliable service, and predictable cost has created a surge of interest in dedicated and private fleets. That will change the complexion of trucking over the next five years.
Gary Frantz is a contributing editor for DC Velocity and its sister publication CSCMP's Supply Chain Quarterly, and a veteran communications executive with more than 30 years of experience in the transportation and logistics industries. He's served as communications director and strategic media relations counselor for companies including XPO Logistics, Con-way, Menlo Logistics, GT Nexus, Circle International Group, and Consolidated Freightways. Gary is currently principal of GNF Communications LLC, a consultancy providing freelance writing, editorial and media strategy services. He's a proud graduate of the Journalism program at California State University–Chico.
When Sam Walton decided to launch his own private fleet back in the 1970s, it was to solve a uniquely specific problem: the inability or lack of desire on the part of commercial carriers to deliver goods to Walmart's mostly rural stores, which tended to be located far from established trucking routes.
Little did he know that some 50 years later, his business decision would be the seed from which would sprout one of the nation's largest private fleet operations, with more than 8,000 drivers, 6,400 tractors, and 60,000 trailers. Today, Walmart is the third-largest private carrier in North America and if ranked as a commercial for-hire carrier, would be among the nation's top 10 operators.
The issue Sam Walton was trying to solve five decades ago—access to and control of guaranteed truck capacity—still exists today.
It's exacerbated by the modern realities of today's e-commerce-driven and Amazon-influenced supply chains, which require much more short-haul, rapid-response fulfillment. Layer on top of that a robust economy driving record freight levels; an ongoing, worsening driver shortage; increasingly challenging city congestion and highway driving conditions; and rising operating and equipment costs, and you have a perfect storm impacting available capacity—and generating more and more interest in private and dedicated fleets.
For big retailers that are adding DCs, having a dedicated fleet can shrink the length of haul, says Greg Orr of truckload carrier CFI.
What's the primary incentive for establishing a private fleet, or contracting for a dedication operation?
"It's really about [access to] steady capacity to support the [shipper's] business and having better control over service," explains Greg Orr, executive vice president of U.S. truckload operations for TFI International and president of TFI's largest North American truckload unit, Joplin, Mo.-based CFI. "In some cases, it's also a more predictable model in terms of cost." Orr noted that his company runs both dedicated and for-hire irregular-route truckload operations for customers. And dedicated is growing.
"Especially the big retailers who have a big network footprint and are adding more and more DCs, it's shrinking the length of haul in their networks," he says. "A lot of people are putting eggs in the [dedicated] basket." And while there will always be a market for long-haul freight, "to keep drivers, you will see a lot more push toward regional plays. [Demand for dedicated and private fleets] will absolutely change the complexion of trucking over the next five years."
CHANGING FACE OF TRUCKING
Use of dedicated fleets will are rising, and will continue to do so for the next two to three years, says Satish Jindel, president of SJ Consulting.
The shift is well under way, notes Satish Jindel, president of SJ Consulting Group. According to his firm's research, from 2017 to 2018, there was a 10.4-percent decline in truck count for one-way truckload for the industry's top truckload operators. At the same time, truck count devoted to dedicated operations rose 6.6 percent. (See Exhibit 1.)
He cites two truckload carriers to illustrate the trend. "At U.S. Xpress, the number of trucks in one-way service was down 6.0 percent, while dedicated was up 10.7 percent. Similarly, at Marten Transport, one-way was down 12.2 percent, but dedicated was up by 28.5 percent," he says. "It's definitely the way the market is evolving, and as [current economic and market] conditions persist, we won't see this trend change for the next two to three years. And we'll see some dedicated operations converted to private fleets."
"If you have a large amount of freight, especially if it is concentrated, why not manage it yourself?" Jindel asks.
GOING PRIVATE
Although capacity considerations may be the driving force behind fleet launches, customer service and cost play into it as well. "[For private fleets,] transportation is integral to the overall view of product quality and satisfaction," says Gary Petty, chief executive of the National Private Truck Council (NPTC). "They're indistinguishable." And as shipping costs with for-hire carriers have skyrocketed in the past year, "more and more it's also about cost management," he says.
Petty believes that particularly in the ongoing battle for drivers—which is the real source of the capacity crunch—private fleets (and to some extent, dedicated contract operations) have a competitive advantage. He notes that private fleets pay higher wages and benefits. For example, published reports cite Walmart drivers earning average annual pay of about $87,500, with some longer-tenured drivers earning over $100,000. Other industry estimates peg the initial pay of a long-haul irregular-route commercial carrier driver somewhere between $55,000 and $60,000—although some of these jobs can reach six figures as well.
Private fleets also typically offer a more predictable work schedule, which is highly desired by drivers, and they're able to get home to their families on a more regular basis, all of which contribute to a better work-life balance. They also tend to stay with their employers longer. Petty cites a study the NPTC did last year that revealed that the private fleet driver-turnover rate was about 14 percent annually, whereas the driver-turnover rate for commercial over-the-road truckload carriers was 94 percent. The average tenure of a private fleet driver is 10 years, the study noted. Lastly, Petty says the NPTC's research found that private fleet drivers are generally three times safer than commercial industry drivers as a whole.
"They stick with their company," Petty noted of private fleet drivers. "The driver becomes a permanent part of the team, the face and personality of the company. That's a tremendous upsell value to the customer."
Private fleets do come with risk, says Bart De Muynck of the market research firm Gartner.
Bart De Muynck, research vice president for transportation technology at market research firm Gartner, agrees that demand for private fleets and dedicated operations is on the upswing, echoing the strategic advantages and potential benefits outlined by the NPTC's Petty and others. But, says De Muynck, even with the lure of guaranteed capacity, private fleets do come with some risk. It's a lot more than just buying trucks, hiring drivers, and sending them on their way.
"You need an entire dedicated organization that can procure the equipment, design the network, do the scheduling and routing, and manage all the aspects—maintenance, safety, HR, regulatory compliance, and driver recruiting and retention," he says. Essentially, it's establishing and running an in-house carrier, which may not be a core competency for a company whose primary business is making and selling products.
"If you are not that specialized [in transportation operations] and don't have the expert personnel and resources to manage it, you run the risk of exposing yourself to higher costs," De Muynck says.
A LOWER-RISK OPTION
One way to mitigate those risks—and achieve the goal of guaranteed capacity—is by setting up a dedicated contract carrier operation with a fleet or a third-party logistics service provider (3PL).
In this model, all of the aspects of managing and running the fleet are handled by the contractor, who may also provide additional services such as network design and optimization to help the client come up with the most efficient dedicated solution for its operating footprint. Often, a dedicated solution can provide the same benefits—guaranteed capacity and reliable service—as a private fleet, at roughly the same cost, but with less risk and direct investment on the part of the shipper.
Well-run fleets and dedicated operations have common characteristics, such as a strong safety focus and good management of fuel and personnel, says Andy Moses of Penske Logistics.
"The big dividing line is having responsibility for your operating authority or not," explains Andy Moses, senior vice president of global products at Penske Logistics, which has a large presence in the dedicated market. "If you are private and operating under your authority, you are responsible for insurance and safety. A dedicated solution tends to offer a similar level of control as a private fleet but turns the operating authority and responsibility completely over to the [contracted] carrier [or 3PL]."
Well-run fleets and dedicated operations tend to have common characteristics, Moses points out. "A strong focus on safety. Good control and management over fuel and personnel. A high percentage of loaded miles. Ongoing dialogue around KPIs [key performance indicators]. And they are metrics-driven," he says. For Penske, that's led to a certain amount of crossover among customers, according to Moses. "We recognize that customers for various reasons want to play back and forth across the spectrum [of private versus dedicated]," he says. "Our approach has been to be that solution regardless of where they stand in that spectrum."
It's a similarly fluid picture over at Ryder System Inc., where nearly half of new dedicated business wins have been private fleets converted to the dedicated model, according to John Diez, Ryder's president of dedicated transportation solutions.
Speaking to the appeal of dedicated, he says a dedicated solution can help maximize savings and boost service levels, while giving the client access to up-to-date equipment and the expertise of a well-resourced dedicated provider. As an example, Diez notes that Ryder's customers can leverage its investments in modern fleet equipment with the latest safety technologies, its team of expert personnel, and a strong safety program and planning technologies that can help the shipper design the optimal dedicated operation. The overall package of capabilities represents an investment that shippers can leverage to secure a workable solution and gain the desired guaranteed capacity, at minimal risk, Diez says.
"When we talk about service, it's about securing capacity and having control so you can be assured you will deliver the product on time to the customer," Diez says. "Consistency in the network is the key."
RJW Logistics Group, a logistics solutions provider (LSP) for consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands, has received a “strategic investment” from Boston-based private equity firm Berkshire partners, and now plans to drive future innovations and expand its geographic reach, the Woodridge, Illinois-based company said Tuesday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the company said that CEO Kevin Williamson and other members of RJW management will continue to be “significant investors” in the company, while private equity firm Mason Wells, which invested in RJW in 2019, will maintain a minority investment position.
RJW is an asset-based transportation, logistics, and warehousing provider, operating more than 7.3 million square feet of consolidation warehouse space in the transportation hubs of Chicago and Dallas and employing 1,900 people. RJW says it partners with over 850 CPG brands and delivers to more than 180 retailers nationwide. According to the company, its retail logistics solutions save cost, improve visibility, and achieve industry-leading On-Time, In-Full (OTIF) performance. Those improvements drive increased in-stock rates and sales, benefiting both CPG brands and their retailer partners, the firm says.
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain” report.
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Freight transportation sector analysts with US Bank say they expect change on the horizon in that market for 2025, due to possible tariffs imposed by a new White House administration, the return of East and Gulf coast port strikes, and expanding freight fraud.
“All three of these merit scrutiny, and that is our promise as we roll into the new year,” the company said in a statement today.
First, US Bank said a new administration will occupy the White House and will control the House and Senate for the first time since 2016. With an announced mandate on tariffs, taxes and trade from his electoral victory, President-Elect Trump’s anticipated actions are almost certain to impact the supply chain, the bank said.
Second, a strike by longshoreman at East Coast and Gulf ports was suspended in October, but the can was only kicked until mid-January. Shipper alarm bells are already ringing, and with peak season in full swing, the West coast ports are roaring, having absorbed containers bound for the East. However, that status may not be sustainable in the event of a prolonged strike in January, US Bank said.
And third, analyst are tracking the proliferation of freight fraud, and its reverberations across the supply chain. No longer the realm of petty criminals, freight fraudsters have become increasingly sophisticated, and the financial toll of their activities in the loss of goods, and data, is expected to be in the billions, the bank estimates.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
A measure of business conditions for shippers improved in September due to lower fuel costs, looser trucking capacity, and lower freight rates, but the freight transportation forecasting firm FTR still expects readings to be weaker and closer to neutral through its two-year forecast period.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR is maintaining its stance that trucking conditions will improve, even though its Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) improved in September to 4.6 from a 2.9 reading in August, reaching its strongest level of the year.
“The fact that September’s index is the strongest since last December is not a sign that shippers’ market conditions are steadily improving,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release.
“September and May were modest outliers this year in a market that is at least becoming more balanced. We expect that trend to continue and for SCI readings to be mostly negative to neutral in 2025 and 2026. However, markets in transition tend to be volatile, so further outliers are likely and possibly in both directions. The supply chain implications of tariffs are a wild card for 2025 especially,” he said.
The SCI tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. Combined into a single index, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions, while a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions.