Truckers sitting in sweet spot as decade winds down, State of Logistics Report says
Truckers seen taking share from rails as technologies drive down costs, improve service, annual report says; transport, inventory costs climbed well above inflation in '17, it adds .
Mark Solomon joined DC VELOCITY as senior editor in August 2008, and was promoted to his current position on January 1, 2015. He has spent more than 30 years in the transportation, logistics and supply chain management fields as a journalist and public relations professional. From 1989 to 1994, he worked in Washington as a reporter for the Journal of Commerce, covering the aviation and trucking industries, the Department of Transportation, Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to that, he worked for Traffic World for seven years in a similar role. From 1994 to 2008, Mr. Solomon ran Media-Based Solutions, a public relations firm based in Atlanta. He graduated in 1978 with a B.A. in journalism from The American University in Washington, D.C.
U.S. trucking firms could be in the proverbial driver's seat by the end of the decade as favorable supply-demand dynamics combine with information technology adoption to generate solid profits and take market share from a railroad industry struggling to keep pace with innovation, according to the 29th Annual "State of Logistics Report" that was released today.
The report, prepared by consultancy A.T. Kearney Inc. for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP) and presented by third-party logistics (3PL) provider Penske Logistics, said advanced line-haul technologies such as autonomous vehicles and truck platooning could be widely available to shippers over the next three to seven years. That phenomenon, combined with truckers' ability to adopt advanced technologies to reduce their operating costs, will narrow the cost differential between the modes and put railroads under increasing competitive pressure, especially since rail suppliers have not been as aggressive in embedding performance-enhancing technology into their products, the report said.
Truckers are leveraging these tools to cull unprofitable or marginally profitable shippers from their ranks, and to marginalize businesses that adhere to the transactional, rate-driven mindset that in the past has paid short shrift to the needs of fleets and drivers, the report said.
The rosy outlook for truckers seems counterintuitive, given challenges ranging from finding, hiring, and keeping qualified drivers; the productivity squeeze accompanying compliance with the federal mandate requiring most vehicles to be equipped with electronic logging devices; higher diesel fuel prices; road infrastructure problems; and elevated operating costs. For now, the authors said, railroads are sitting pretty as strong demand gives them pricing power—especially in intermodal—and as productivity improvements boost profit margins and the newly enacted corporate tax cuts increase their cash flows. Intermodal costs rose by double digits year over year, in part as shippers struggling to find over-the-road capacity converted traffic to the railroads.
How long that lasts will likely depend on the industry getting its operational act together. Events of the past few months haven't been encouraging. In March, the Surface Transportation Board (STB), the nation's rail regulator, concerned about unreliable and inconsistent service, ordered all Class Is to submit to the agency their service plans for the rest of 2018. Service complaints in 2017 spiked 144 percent from 2016 levels, the STB said.
STEEP GRADE AHEAD
The exceptional pricing leverage being enjoyed by asset-based carriers, a trend expected to hold at least for several years, was the central narrative of the report, entitled "A Steep Grade Ahead." Last year's report, which analyzed 2016's performance, described an uncertain future for the industry and posited various scenarios for its direction. By contrast, this year's report had a single message: Assets are where it's at.
"Carriers are in control as demand outstrips supply, while shippers try to 'create capacity' by improving efficiency whenever possible," according to the authors. For shippers, the biggest challenge won't be fighting the upward rate trend, but being creative to secure adequate capacity at prices—though much higher than they are accustomed to—they can live with.
After declining in 2016 for the first time since 2009, U.S. business logistics costs climbed 6.2 percent in 2017. Logistics costs as a percentage of gross domestic product rose to 7.7 percent last year, from 7.6 percent the prior year. The report's three main components—transportation, inventory carrying costs, and so-called other expenses, such as administration—rose substantially.
Transportation costs increased 7 percent, led by intermodal, which rose 10.5 percent; dedicated contract carriage, which spiked by 9.5 percent as more shippers demanded capacity assurance; and parcel and express, which rose 7 percent. Truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) costs rose 6.4 percent and 6.6 percent year over year, respectively, according to the report. Only waterborne freight, with an increase of just 1.1 percent, came in below the 3-percent threshold for year-over-year gains.
Inventory carrying costs climbed 4.6 percent over 2017, paced by a 5-percent gain in borrowing costs as interest rates climbed. Physical storage costs climbed 4.2 percent as demand for facilities to support e-commerce fulfillment and distribution continued apace, the report said.
In a sober assessment of the often-problematic relationship between shippers and their 3PLs, the focus still remains on cost cutting, rather than on building mutually beneficial relationships over the long haul, according to the report.
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The British logistics robot vendor Dexory this week said it has raised $80 million in venture funding to support an expansion of its artificial intelligence (AI) powered features, grow its global team, and accelerate the deployment of its autonomous robots.
A “significant focus” continues to be on expanding across the U.S. market, where Dexory is live with customers in seven states and last month opened a U.S. headquarters in Nashville. The Series B will also enhance development and production facilities at its UK headquarters, the firm said.
The “series B” funding round was led by DTCP, with participation from Latitude Ventures, Wave-X and Bootstrap Europe, along with existing investors Atomico, Lakestar, Capnamic, and several angels from the logistics industry. With the close of the round, Dexory has now raised $120 million over the past three years.
Dexory says its product, DexoryView, provides real-time visibility across warehouses of any size through its autonomous mobile robots and AI. The rolling bots use sensor and image data and continuous data collection to perform rapid warehouse scans and create digital twins of warehouse spaces, allowing for optimized performance and future scenario simulations.
Originally announced in September, the move will allow Deutsche Bahn to “fully focus on restructuring the rail infrastructure in Germany and providing climate-friendly passenger and freight transport operations in Germany and Europe,” Werner Gatzer, Chairman of the DB Supervisory Board, said in a release.
For its purchase price, DSV gains an organization with around 72,700 employees at over 1,850 locations. The new owner says it plans to investment around one billion euros in coming years to promote additional growth in German operations. Together, DSV and Schenker will have a combined workforce of approximately 147,000 employees in more than 90 countries, earning pro forma revenue of approximately $43.3 billion (based on 2023 numbers), DSV said.
After removing that unit, Deutsche Bahn retains its core business called the “Systemverbund Bahn,” which includes passenger transport activities in Germany, rail freight activities, operational service units, and railroad infrastructure companies. The DB Group, headquartered in Berlin, employs around 340,000 people.
“We have set clear goals to structurally modernize Deutsche Bahn in the areas of infrastructure, operations and profitability and focus on the core business. The proceeds from the sale will significantly reduce DB’s debt and thus make an important contribution to the financial stability of the DB Group. At the same time, DB Schenker will gain a strong strategic owner in DSV,” Deutsche Bahn CEO Richard Lutz said in a release.
Transportation industry veteran Anne Reinke will become president & CEO of trade group the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) at the end of the year, stepping into the position from her previous post leading third party logistics (3PL) trade group the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), both organizations said today.
Meanwhile, TIA today announced that insider Christopher Burroughs would fill Reinke’s shoes as president & CEO. Burroughs has been with TIA for 13 years, most recently as its vice president of Government Affairs for the past six years, during which time he oversaw all legislative and regulatory efforts before Congress and the federal agencies.
Before her four years leading TIA, Reinke spent two years as Deputy Assistant Secretary with the U.S. Department of Transportation and 16 years with CSX Corporation.
Serious inland flooding and widespread power outages are likely to sweep across Florida and other Southeast states in coming days with the arrival of Hurricane Helene, which is now predicted to make landfall Thursday evening along Florida’s northwest coast as a major hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the most catastrophic landfall impact is expected in the sparsely-population Big Bend area of Florida, it’s not only sea-front cities that are at risk. Since Helene is an “unusually large storm,” its flooding, rainfall, and high winds won’t be limited only to the Gulf Coast, but are expected to travel hundreds of miles inland, the weather service said. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin in the region even before the storm comes ashore, and the wet conditions will continue to move northward into the southern Appalachians region through Friday, dumping storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches. Specifically, the major flood risk includes the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta, and western North Carolina.
In addition to its human toll, the storm could exert serious business impacts, according to the supply chain mapping and monitoring firm Resilinc. Those will be largely triggered by significant flooding, which could halt oil operations, force mandatory evacuations, restrict ports, and disrupt air traffic.
While the storm’s track is currently forecast to miss the critical ports of Miami and New Orleans, it could still hurt operations throughout the Southeast agricultural belt, which produces products like soybeans, cotton, peanuts, corn, and tobacco, according to Everstream Analytics.
That widespread footprint could also hinder supply chain and logistics flows along stretches of interstate highways I-10 and I-75 and on regional rail lines operated by Norfolk Southern and CSX. And Hurricane Helene could also likely impact business operations by unleashing power outages, deep flooding, and wind damage in northern Florida portions of Georgia, Everstream Analytics said.
Before the storm had even touched Florida soil, recovery efforts were already being launched by humanitarian aid group the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN). In a statement on Wednesday, the group said it is urging residents in the storm's path across the Southeast to heed evacuation notices and safety advisories, and reminding members of the logistics community that their post-storm help could be needed soon. The group will continue to update its Disaster Micro-Site with Hurricane Helene resources and with requests for donated logistics assistance, most of which will start arriving within 24 to 72 hours after the storm’s initial landfall, ALAN said.