Mark Solomon joined DC VELOCITY as senior editor in August 2008, and was promoted to his current position on January 1, 2015. He has spent more than 30 years in the transportation, logistics and supply chain management fields as a journalist and public relations professional. From 1989 to 1994, he worked in Washington as a reporter for the Journal of Commerce, covering the aviation and trucking industries, the Department of Transportation, Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to that, he worked for Traffic World for seven years in a similar role. From 1994 to 2008, Mr. Solomon ran Media-Based Solutions, a public relations firm based in Atlanta. He graduated in 1978 with a B.A. in journalism from The American University in Washington, D.C.
In a report issued last April, Christian Wetherbee, an analyst for Citigroup Inc., concluded that the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) would have to raise its artificially low parcel rates by as much as 50 percent in order to break even on its fast-growing parcel offerings. The biggest question, Wetherbee wrote, was who or what would break through the Washington inertia and "trigger" such a change.
Enter the President of the United States.
It is easy to dismiss Donald J. Trump's executive order last night creating a task force to analyze all of USPS' operations as a political vendetta against Jeff Bezos, the owner of The Washington Post—on Trump's toilet list for years—and founder and CEO of Amazon.com Inc., the Seattle-based e-tailing goliath and USPS' biggest parcel customer. For months, Trump has pounded on the idea that USPS virtually gives away its parcel services, citing reports that it loses $1.50 on each Amazon shipment, a claim considered by many to be dubious if not untrue.
It could be quite easily surmised that Trump would have little, if any, interest in USPS' financial condition if not for the Bezos-Amazon-Washington Post connection. In addition, the executive branch has no daily pull over USPS. The president's role is limited to signing bills into law that affect the quasi-governmental agency. The Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC), created by Congress in 1970 to operate as an independent entity, approves all USPS' rate proposals. Changes in postal operations, from the closure of local post offices to modification of USPS' pension obligations, are the province of Congress. The Postmaster General is appointed by USPS' Board of Governors, who are appointed by the President.
Yet the President is a "starting gun," meaning most of what he says or does has consequences. Last night's order, which requires Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin, who has been appointed to lead the task force, to report back to Trump with its recommendations within 120 days, could hasten what Wetherbee last year called a "day of reckoning" for USPS, when its parcel rates would be forced to reflect the actual cost of service, and shipping would have to pull more of the profit load to offset the secular decline in first-class mail, the traditional cash cow.
Should USPS' parcel rates rise to the levels cited by the analyst, the impact on the shipping marketplace, and on an economy increasingly influenced by e-commerce activity, could be enormous. Millions of online retailers and merchants offer their end customers "free shipping" for purchases as a means of retaining and keeping their business. The shipping is not free, and USPS has been raising parcel rates by mid- to high single-digit amounts for several years. Still, the rates remain so competitive that big-ticket users have been willing to effectively eat the costs. That approach may no longer be viable should rates rise substantially from current levels.
In his analysis, Wetherbee wrote that "many consumers have been conditioned to expect shipping solutions which are not supported by economic reality." A meaningful parcel rate hike from USPS, especially if it is pushed by Congress rather than just by the PRC, could shock the ecosystem into making profound changes in parcel delivery strategy, he said.
Large users could increase their in-house investments in parcel distribution, much the same way Amazon has been doing in building out its own network. However, Amazon's volume is extremely large, and it is growing at a 20-percent-a-quarter clip. Thus, there is no way it could accommodate all its shipping business in house. About three-quarters of Amazon's shipping costs would be impacted in some manner by a meaningful USPS rate hike, according to Wetherbee's projections.
For UPS Inc. and FedEx Corp., companies that compete with USPS and also rely on its "Parcel Select" service to deliver packages to out-of-the-way addresses too costly for the companies to serve, an elevation in postal rates could be a revenue bonanza. Wetherbee estimated a $15 to $19 billion combined annual revenue "opportunity" for the two carriers should the overall rate floor rise and enable them to price ground services more aggressively.
ALLOCABLE COSTS
One of the elephants in the postal room is the issue of allocable costs. Under a 2006 law that further changed how USPS does business, the agency is required to price its product offerings in such a way that they recoup both its variable costs and the appropriate share of the organization's overall costs. Back then, so-called competitive products—the category under which parcel and shipping fall—were assigned a 5.5-percent allocable share. That percentage has remained the same, even though parcel and shipping today account for about a one-quarter of total revenue, the highest ratio in USPS' history.
In 2015, USPS told the PRC that competitive products should account for 24.6 percent of the agency's overall costs. The Post Office has declined to comment on various requests from DC Velocity asking what it considers an appropriate percentage. The implication is that, should parcel costs and revenue be more closely aligned than they are today, costs would rise substantially and, by extension, so should parcel rates, to offset those escalations.
The debate over the proper allocable cost formula is critical in the context of postal operations. Parcel processing brings with it higher labor and equipment costs. By contrast, first-class mail processing is highly automated. Furthermore, a truck that cubes out with letters generates more revenue than a truck full of parcels.
The irony is that significant parcel rate hikes could end up taking business from USPS. The three largest users of Parcel Select, UPS, FedEx, and Amazon, are developing their own infrastructures and rate matrixes to challenge USPS in the local last-mile e-commerce delivery category. USPS has publicly acknowledged that those efforts could undermine its ability to grow the business in the years ahead.
What is even more ironic is that a meaningful postal rate hike could create a scenario where, over the long haul, the one company that ends up benefitting the most is Amazon. Its large-scale logistics investments in recent years have afforded it deeper fulfillment density than ever before, which, in turn, allows it to diversify its delivery options to include local carriers. This would insulate it from any USPS rate hikes, especially if they are imposed over a period of time, according to Wetherbee.
Because Amazon would be better able than its retailer rivals to digest higher shipping costs, a USPS rate hike would further strengthen its cost advantage to consumers and the e-tailer would gain even more market share, Wetherbee predicted. While Amazon might be hurt in the short-term by postal rate hikes, "increased purchase frequency and customer density should benefit (its) margins over time," he wrote.
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The British logistics robot vendor Dexory this week said it has raised $80 million in venture funding to support an expansion of its artificial intelligence (AI) powered features, grow its global team, and accelerate the deployment of its autonomous robots.
A “significant focus” continues to be on expanding across the U.S. market, where Dexory is live with customers in seven states and last month opened a U.S. headquarters in Nashville. The Series B will also enhance development and production facilities at its UK headquarters, the firm said.
The “series B” funding round was led by DTCP, with participation from Latitude Ventures, Wave-X and Bootstrap Europe, along with existing investors Atomico, Lakestar, Capnamic, and several angels from the logistics industry. With the close of the round, Dexory has now raised $120 million over the past three years.
Dexory says its product, DexoryView, provides real-time visibility across warehouses of any size through its autonomous mobile robots and AI. The rolling bots use sensor and image data and continuous data collection to perform rapid warehouse scans and create digital twins of warehouse spaces, allowing for optimized performance and future scenario simulations.
Originally announced in September, the move will allow Deutsche Bahn to “fully focus on restructuring the rail infrastructure in Germany and providing climate-friendly passenger and freight transport operations in Germany and Europe,” Werner Gatzer, Chairman of the DB Supervisory Board, said in a release.
For its purchase price, DSV gains an organization with around 72,700 employees at over 1,850 locations. The new owner says it plans to investment around one billion euros in coming years to promote additional growth in German operations. Together, DSV and Schenker will have a combined workforce of approximately 147,000 employees in more than 90 countries, earning pro forma revenue of approximately $43.3 billion (based on 2023 numbers), DSV said.
After removing that unit, Deutsche Bahn retains its core business called the “Systemverbund Bahn,” which includes passenger transport activities in Germany, rail freight activities, operational service units, and railroad infrastructure companies. The DB Group, headquartered in Berlin, employs around 340,000 people.
“We have set clear goals to structurally modernize Deutsche Bahn in the areas of infrastructure, operations and profitability and focus on the core business. The proceeds from the sale will significantly reduce DB’s debt and thus make an important contribution to the financial stability of the DB Group. At the same time, DB Schenker will gain a strong strategic owner in DSV,” Deutsche Bahn CEO Richard Lutz said in a release.
Transportation industry veteran Anne Reinke will become president & CEO of trade group the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) at the end of the year, stepping into the position from her previous post leading third party logistics (3PL) trade group the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), both organizations said today.
Meanwhile, TIA today announced that insider Christopher Burroughs would fill Reinke’s shoes as president & CEO. Burroughs has been with TIA for 13 years, most recently as its vice president of Government Affairs for the past six years, during which time he oversaw all legislative and regulatory efforts before Congress and the federal agencies.
Before her four years leading TIA, Reinke spent two years as Deputy Assistant Secretary with the U.S. Department of Transportation and 16 years with CSX Corporation.
Serious inland flooding and widespread power outages are likely to sweep across Florida and other Southeast states in coming days with the arrival of Hurricane Helene, which is now predicted to make landfall Thursday evening along Florida’s northwest coast as a major hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the most catastrophic landfall impact is expected in the sparsely-population Big Bend area of Florida, it’s not only sea-front cities that are at risk. Since Helene is an “unusually large storm,” its flooding, rainfall, and high winds won’t be limited only to the Gulf Coast, but are expected to travel hundreds of miles inland, the weather service said. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin in the region even before the storm comes ashore, and the wet conditions will continue to move northward into the southern Appalachians region through Friday, dumping storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches. Specifically, the major flood risk includes the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta, and western North Carolina.
In addition to its human toll, the storm could exert serious business impacts, according to the supply chain mapping and monitoring firm Resilinc. Those will be largely triggered by significant flooding, which could halt oil operations, force mandatory evacuations, restrict ports, and disrupt air traffic.
While the storm’s track is currently forecast to miss the critical ports of Miami and New Orleans, it could still hurt operations throughout the Southeast agricultural belt, which produces products like soybeans, cotton, peanuts, corn, and tobacco, according to Everstream Analytics.
That widespread footprint could also hinder supply chain and logistics flows along stretches of interstate highways I-10 and I-75 and on regional rail lines operated by Norfolk Southern and CSX. And Hurricane Helene could also likely impact business operations by unleashing power outages, deep flooding, and wind damage in northern Florida portions of Georgia, Everstream Analytics said.
Before the storm had even touched Florida soil, recovery efforts were already being launched by humanitarian aid group the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN). In a statement on Wednesday, the group said it is urging residents in the storm's path across the Southeast to heed evacuation notices and safety advisories, and reminding members of the logistics community that their post-storm help could be needed soon. The group will continue to update its Disaster Micro-Site with Hurricane Helene resources and with requests for donated logistics assistance, most of which will start arriving within 24 to 72 hours after the storm’s initial landfall, ALAN said.