FedEx makes surgical strike in peak-shipping-season battle with UPS
FedEx targets outsized shipments for surcharges while exempting small-parcel business; move seen protecting FedEx cost structure while preserving customer core.
Mark Solomon joined DC VELOCITY as senior editor in August 2008, and was promoted to his current position on January 1, 2015. He has spent more than 30 years in the transportation, logistics and supply chain management fields as a journalist and public relations professional. From 1989 to 1994, he worked in Washington as a reporter for the Journal of Commerce, covering the aviation and trucking industries, the Department of Transportation, Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to that, he worked for Traffic World for seven years in a similar role. From 1994 to 2008, Mr. Solomon ran Media-Based Solutions, a public relations firm based in Atlanta. He graduated in 1978 with a B.A. in journalism from The American University in Washington, D.C.
By targeting peak holiday season surcharges at heavy, oversized shipments—often the main culprits in driving up peak shipping costs—FedEx Corp. appears to be betting it can protect its cost structure while retaining, if not gaining, small, low-cube parcel traffic that still accounts for most peak activity and isn't a drag on the company's operating network.
In diverging from rival UPS Inc., which will apply a 27-cent per-package surcharge on ground residential deliveries for three of the five weeks of the upcoming peak season, and 91-cent and 97-cent per-package surcharges on air and three-day deliveries, respectively, during the final week, Memphis-based FedEx will not impose any surcharges on the standard small-parcel deliveries its infrastructure is essentially built to handle. Instead, it will focus on the "large format" items that are not conveyable, may require extra or special handling, or both.
Delivery demand for those items is rising rapidly as retailers expand the stock-keeping units available for online purchase. This holiday season, 15 percent of all traffic will be comprised of the types of shipments to be affected by the new FedEx surcharges, according to SJ Consulting Group Inc. That translates into an exponential increase in the past few years, according to Satish Jindel, SJ's president. However, those shipments generally drive up line-haul costs because they are so unusually large and heavy.
In addition, while Atlanta-based UPS will not apply any surcharges during the middle two weeks of the five-week holiday cycle, the FedEx charges will be in effect from start to finish.
The biggest change occurs in a segment of the parcel delivery trade known as "unauthorized" packages, shipments with such outsized weight or dimensions that the company may refuse to handle them. That surcharge will soar by a whopping $300 per package, to $415 per package. The surcharge will apply to U.S. and international ground deliveries.
FedEx also boosted its surcharge on "oversize" packages—items not quite as outsized and somewhat easier for its system to handle—by $25 per package, to $97.50. The charge applies to all domestic air shipments and U.S. and international ground shipments. Finally, FedEx added a $3 per-package "additional handling" surcharge to U.S. express and U.S. and international ground deliveries, bringing that surcharge to $14 per package.
The announcement of the oversized and special handling charges was expected, though some observers were surprised by the magnitude of the jump in the "unauthorized" shipment surcharge. UPS also imposes surcharges on similar awkwardly shaped shipments.
For the past decade, the two companies have followed in virtual lockstep in implementing major pricing actions. There has been much speculation since UPS' June 19 announcement that FedEx would follow suit with similar surcharges. Even though FedEx went in another direction, Jindel doesn't expect UPS to lose peak business exclusively committed to it. However, shippers that are using both services and that aren't tendering the types of goods subject to the surcharge may tilt toward FedEx, he said.
Rob Martinez, CEO of consultancy Shipware LLC, said the FedEx moves will not result in a flood of UPS business to FedEx, but they will check UPS' ability to make all its surcharge increases stick. "Now that shippers have a choice and clear price difference, UPS customers will have more leverage to negotiate bigger residential discounts to offset the holiday rate hikes," Martinez said. UPS shippers will give the carrier a chance to adjust its increases before switching carriers, he added.
Several analysts said FedEx's pricing strategy is aimed at either discouraging the tender of very large items or forcing shippers to package them more prudently. Both carriers have adjusted their pricing based on package dimensions to make it more costly for customers shipping high-cube, low-weight items like pillows and lampshades.
This holiday, FedEx may end up sacrificing revenue should shippers of outsized items defect to UPS or to less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers whose forte is handling those types of goods. Yet the sacrifice may be worth it if FedEx drives down line-haul costs and frees up precious trailer space for 50 or so small parcels that could fit in the space equivalent of one or two outsized items.
Krishna Iyer, who spent nine years at FedEx and is today director, strategic partnerships and business development, at ShipStation, said merchants that fulfill on sites like Amazon.com, many of which are not sophisticated in the ways of shipping, need to be careful lest they get hit hard for surcharges on such items as a free-standing desk. Shippers also should be aware that the carrier determines which goods require special handling, and that the shipper may not become aware of the carrier's dictates until the shipment is delivered. "You will get the sticker shock after the fact, without much way to plan, in some cases," he said.
Most surcharges, which by definition are punitive in nature, are designed to force or influence changes in shipper behavior. In the case of residential deliveries, which for FedEx and UPS have poor delivery density, parcels tendered to them are often inducted deep into the system of the U.S. Postal Service, a low-cost operator that is required by law to serve every address, for final delivery. However, LTL and even truckload carriers are moving into the final-mile segment, drawn by the rapid growth triggered by the e-commerce phenomenon.
"The carriers seem to be focusing on 'beautiful freight,' or packages that are profitable and fit within their network constraints, rather than pure volume," said Iyer. The surcharges, he said, are part of a strategy to retain that good freight—largely high-density business-to-business deliveries—while sending more shippers to their final-mile services for residential deliveries, he said.
As a byproduct of that, more shippers of super-outsized packages could begin taking a closer look at residential LTL services, Iyer added.
As holiday shoppers blitz through the final weeks of the winter peak shopping season, a survey from the postal and shipping solutions provider Stamps.com shows that 40% of U.S. consumers are unaware of holiday shipping deadlines, leaving them at risk of running into last-minute scrambles, higher shipping costs, and packages arriving late.
The survey also found a generational difference in holiday shipping deadline awareness, with 53% of Baby Boomers unaware of these cut-off dates, compared to just 32% of Millennials. Millennials are also more likely to prioritize guaranteed delivery, with 68% citing it as a key factor when choosing a shipping option this holiday season.
Of those surveyed, 66% have experienced holiday shipping delays, with Gen Z reporting the highest rate of delays at 73%, compared to 49% of Baby Boomers. That statistical spread highlights a conclusion that younger generations are less tolerant of delays and prioritize fast and efficient shipping, researchers said. The data came from a study of 1,000 U.S. consumers conducted in October 2024 to understand their shopping habits and preferences.
As they cope with that tight shipping window, a huge 83% of surveyed consumers are willing to pay extra for faster shipping to avoid the prospect of a late-arriving gift. This trend is especially strong among Gen Z, with 56% willing to pay up, compared to just 27% of Baby Boomers.
“As the holiday season approaches, it’s crucial for consumers to be prepared and aware of shipping deadlines to ensure their gifts arrive on time,” Nick Spitzman, General Manager of Stamps.com, said in a release. ”Our survey highlights the significant portion of consumers who are unaware of these deadlines, particularly older generations. It’s essential for retailers and shipping carriers to provide clear and timely information about shipping deadlines to help consumers avoid last-minute stress and disappointment.”
For best results, Stamps.com advises consumers to begin holiday shopping early and familiarize themselves with shipping deadlines across carriers. That is especially true with Thanksgiving falling later this year, meaning the holiday season is shorter and planning ahead is even more essential.
According to Stamps.com, key shipping deadlines include:
December 13, 2024: Last day for FedEx Ground Economy
December 18, 2024: Last day for USPS Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail
December 19, 2024: Last day for UPS 3 Day Select and USPS Priority Mail
December 20, 2024: Last day for UPS 2nd Day Air
December 21, 2024: Last day for USPS Priority Mail Express
Measured over the entire year of 2024, retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales will be returned. But that total figure includes a spike of returns during the holidays; a separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate.
Despite the cost of handling that massive reverse logistics task, retailers grin and bear it because product returns are so tightly integrated with brand loyalty, offering companies an additional touchpoint to provide a positive interaction with their customers, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. According to NRF’s research, 76% of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again. And 84% of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
So in response to consumer demand, retailers continue to enhance the return experience for customers. More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months. In addition, improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
However, retailers also must balance meeting consumer demand for seamless returns against rising costs. Fraudulent and abusive returns practices create both logistical and financial challenges for retailers. A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business. In terms of abuse, bracketing – purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some – has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration – they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said in a release. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
The research came from two complementary surveys conducted this fall, allowing NRF and Happy Returns to compare perspectives from both sides. They included one that gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, and another from 249 e-commerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers.
The “series A” round was led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Y Combinator and strategic industry investors, including RyderVentures. It follows an earlier, previously undisclosed, pre-seed round raised 1.5 years ago, that was backed by Array Ventures and other angel investors.
“Our mission is to redefine the economics of the freight industry by harnessing the power of agentic AI,ˮ Pablo Palafox, HappyRobotʼs co-founder and CEO, said in a release. “This funding will enable us to accelerate product development, expand and support our customer base, and ultimately transform how logistics businesses operate.ˮ
According to the firm, its conversational AI platform uses agentic AI—a term for systems that can autonomously make decisions and take actions to achieve specific goals—to simplify logistics operations. HappyRobot says its tech can automate tasks like inbound and outbound calls, carrier negotiations, and data capture, thus enabling brokers to enhance efficiency and capacity, improve margins, and free up human agents to focus on higher-value activities.
“Today, the logistics industry underpinning our global economy is stretched,” Anish Acharya, general partner at a16z, said. “As a key part of the ecosystem, even small to midsize freight brokers can make and receive hundreds, if not thousands, of calls per day – and hiring for this job is increasingly difficult. By providing customers with autonomous decision making, HappyRobotʼs agentic AI platform helps these brokers operate more reliably and efficiently.ˮ
RJW Logistics Group, a logistics solutions provider (LSP) for consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands, has received a “strategic investment” from Boston-based private equity firm Berkshire partners, and now plans to drive future innovations and expand its geographic reach, the Woodridge, Illinois-based company said Tuesday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the company said that CEO Kevin Williamson and other members of RJW management will continue to be “significant investors” in the company, while private equity firm Mason Wells, which invested in RJW in 2019, will maintain a minority investment position.
RJW is an asset-based transportation, logistics, and warehousing provider, operating more than 7.3 million square feet of consolidation warehouse space in the transportation hubs of Chicago and Dallas and employing 1,900 people. RJW says it partners with over 850 CPG brands and delivers to more than 180 retailers nationwide. According to the company, its retail logistics solutions save cost, improve visibility, and achieve industry-leading On-Time, In-Full (OTIF) performance. Those improvements drive increased in-stock rates and sales, benefiting both CPG brands and their retailer partners, the firm says.
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain” report.
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.