UPS and FedEx have faced major challenges in B2C shipping, not least of which are shippers who expect something for nothing. Now, they're sending clear signals that things are about to change.
Mark Solomon joined DC VELOCITY as senior editor in August 2008, and was promoted to his current position on January 1, 2015. He has spent more than 30 years in the transportation, logistics and supply chain management fields as a journalist and public relations professional. From 1989 to 1994, he worked in Washington as a reporter for the Journal of Commerce, covering the aviation and trucking industries, the Department of Transportation, Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to that, he worked for Traffic World for seven years in a similar role. From 1994 to 2008, Mr. Solomon ran Media-Based Solutions, a public relations firm based in Atlanta. He graduated in 1978 with a B.A. in journalism from The American University in Washington, D.C.
Satish Jindel, the president of transport consultancy SJ Consulting, had a conversation recently with one of his clients, a large retailer. According to Jindel, the retailer, which spends millions of dollars a year with FedEx Corp., complained that its rep wasn't keen on handling more of its parcel volumes.
Jindel, whose street cred frees him to administer tough love when deemed appropriate, told the retailer he wasn't surprised by the rep's reaction. "It's to be expected when retailers want parcel carriers to deliver to residences at unprofitable pricing just because they've spoiled consumers with free shipping," he said in a phone interview. Retailers, Jindel added, "can't expect FedEx to subsidize free shipping. They have to come up with creative ways to recover that cost."
So far, retailers have been about as creative as a sledgehammer. Caught between offering a supposedly "free" perk and still having to pay parcel carriers for their services, retailers have forced lower rates down their vendors' throats. However, Memphis, Tenn.-based FedEx and its chief rival, Atlanta-based UPS Inc., have had enough. They recognize it is impossible to turn their backs on business-to-consumer (B2C) volumes given their growing relevance (see Exhibit 1), and they are reconfiguring their networks to handle the business more cost-effectively. At the same time, though, the giants are signaling to retailers that they should begin accepting compensatory rates, or they should find another carrier.
MANY PACKAGES, NO PROFITS
Frederick W. Smith, FedEx's founder, chairman, and CEO, spoke bluntly about the profitability problem last December during the company's quarterly analyst call, acknowledging that there are e-commerce shipments it doesn't make any money on. T. Michael Glenn, FedEx's number-two executive until he retired at the end of 2016, said on the call that FedEx had "discontinued relations with a few customers" during the peak holiday season because their shipping profiles didn't align with the company's objectives of volume expansion and yield improvement.
Steve Gaut, UPS's chief spokesman, said in an e-mail accompanying its fourth-quarter results on Jan. 31 that the company must be "appropriately compensated" for the costs of expanding its physical and IT networks. At UPS, where B2C traffic in 2018 is expected to exceed business-to-business (B2B) volumes for the first time ever, 2017 capital expenditures will total $4 billion, up more than 30 percent from 2016 levels.
UPS is spending hundreds of millions of dollars to automate its "Tier 1" U.S. hubs that today handle a little more than half its domestic volume. The modernization should improve network productivity by up to 25 percent when the work is done sometime in 2019, according to Rob Martinez, president and CEO of Shipware LLC, a consultancy. This will allow UPS to route up to 60 percent of its total U.S. ground volumes through Tier 1 hubs, Martinez said.
FedEx Ground, the ground parcel unit that handles the bulk of FedEx's e-commerce deliveries, has added four major U.S. hubs and 19 automated stations in the past year alone, a 10 million-square-foot expansion. Smith called the pace of the build-out "one of the most remarkable things I've seen in my career."
However, massive investments will take a bite out of the carriers' revenues if the traffic mix isn't optimal. UPS's fourth-quarter revenue came in lighter than expected, in part because more customers used its cheaper "SurePost" service, where shipments are tendered to the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) for last-mile delivery, rather than moving solely through the UPS network, where the company could charge more. Wall Street proceeded to punish UPS's share price in the short run; from Jan. 31 through Feb. 2, the price of UPS's shares fell about $11 a share. FedEx shares fell about half that amount. (Both companies' shares have rebounded as of Feb. 10, the day this story was filed.)
At UPS, domestic B2C operating margins have ranged between 11.6 percent and 14.2 percent from the start of 2013 through the fourth quarter of 2016, according to SJ data. However, B2C margin growth has been compressed, albeit slightly, over that time. From the end of 2013 through the end of last year, domestic margins have fallen by 0.6 percent, SJ said. (See Exhibit 2.)
A ROBUST TOOLKIT
Retailers should take heed of the carriers' warnings about price adjustments. First off, there aren't many alternatives. USPS offers low prices and abundant last-mile capacity, but Smith on the analyst call argued that as a primarily last-mile carrier, USPS doesn't have the capabilities to deliver the so-called "upstream" services to parcel shippers and their customers. Amazon.com Inc., the Seattle-based e-tailer, is building out a transport and logistics network to fulfill orders placed on its website as well as those of third-party merchants using Amazon's services. Still, for retailers already competing with Amazon, using its delivery services would be akin to sleeping with the enemy.
If history is any guide, UPS and FedEx will find ways to surmount the e-commerce challenge. They raise their published rates annually, though they often agree to givebacks in return for large volumes. They have squeezed retailers in recent years by charging more for shipments that fail to meet certain dimensional parameters, and they continually impose an array of "accessorial" charges, fees for services beyond the basic delivery.
The carriers also laid down the law this past peak season, putting retailers on notice that the rules of the game had changed. Both adjusted their time-definite express delivery commitments during the critical final week before Christmas, directing drivers to deliver by the end of a committed day rather than by a specific time, according to SJ. In addition, FedEx Ground suspended its ground service guarantees for the entire peak season, while UPS did the same for Cyber Week (the week after Thanksgiving) and Christmas week, according to the firm. The adjustments to the delivery guarantees were designed to blunt the cost impact of residential delivery spikes rather than to maintain profitability by levying additional charges, SJ said.
Perhaps most significant, both are working to generate sufficient e-commerce delivery densities to reduce costs and capture more of the last-mile e-commerce traffic that they have historically tendered to USPS. The companies have operational alliances with USPS where residential packages are inducted deep into the postal network for last-mile delivery by postal carriers. USPS prices the service cheaply because it is already required by law to serve every U.S. address and can pick up or drop off parcels along the way. Though the model is popular with FedEx and UPS customers, the carriers don't generate much revenue from it and have to share what they take in with USPS.
FedEx is also consolidating shipments moving in its FedEx Ground, FedEx Home Delivery, and "SmartPost" service (FedEx's joint service with USPS) in a bid to boost efficiency. UPS, meanwhile, has created about 8,000 U.S. "access points," commercial establishments in residential neighborhoods where packages are dropped off for customers to pick up. Customers using the company's "My Choice" service can redirect a package to a convenient dropoff location. The strategy benefits UPS by consolidating multiple residential stops into one commercial stop, which optimizes UPS's network and minimizes costly "not at home" delivery attempts, said Martinez of Shipware. In addition, UPS has expanded its "Synchronized Delivery Solutions" capabilities, creating what Martinez calls "synthetic density" to speed up or slow down package deliveries so multiple packages get delivered at the same time.
The strategy of diverting last-mile deliveries into the carriers' own systems appears to be paying off, at least at UPS; its drivers now deliver about 35 percent of packages moving under its postal product rather than letting USPS do it. FedEx is nowhere near that level. However, few would bet against the company should it decide to follow the same course.
USPS, for its part, is concerned. In a Feb. 9 government filing, it acknowledged that the growth of that business—known in the postal world as "Parcel Select"—could be jeopardized if three of its biggest customers continue building out rival networks. USPS didn't identify the carriers, but it's clear that they are FedEx, UPS, and Amazon.
There's no question FedEx and UPS can pull multiple levers to get ahead of the e-commerce tsunami. However, they may still find it tough going unless they can convince retailers that they can't constantly demand lower prices just because they've made service commitments to consumers that they may now regret. "Bending the cost curve isn't just about density, but revenue per stop," Martinez said. "We see both carriers walking away if margins are forced too low." For retailers and other B2C shippers, that may require building a bit more cushion into their parcel delivery budgets.
As holiday shoppers blitz through the final weeks of the winter peak shopping season, a survey from the postal and shipping solutions provider Stamps.com shows that 40% of U.S. consumers are unaware of holiday shipping deadlines, leaving them at risk of running into last-minute scrambles, higher shipping costs, and packages arriving late.
The survey also found a generational difference in holiday shipping deadline awareness, with 53% of Baby Boomers unaware of these cut-off dates, compared to just 32% of Millennials. Millennials are also more likely to prioritize guaranteed delivery, with 68% citing it as a key factor when choosing a shipping option this holiday season.
Of those surveyed, 66% have experienced holiday shipping delays, with Gen Z reporting the highest rate of delays at 73%, compared to 49% of Baby Boomers. That statistical spread highlights a conclusion that younger generations are less tolerant of delays and prioritize fast and efficient shipping, researchers said. The data came from a study of 1,000 U.S. consumers conducted in October 2024 to understand their shopping habits and preferences.
As they cope with that tight shipping window, a huge 83% of surveyed consumers are willing to pay extra for faster shipping to avoid the prospect of a late-arriving gift. This trend is especially strong among Gen Z, with 56% willing to pay up, compared to just 27% of Baby Boomers.
“As the holiday season approaches, it’s crucial for consumers to be prepared and aware of shipping deadlines to ensure their gifts arrive on time,” Nick Spitzman, General Manager of Stamps.com, said in a release. ”Our survey highlights the significant portion of consumers who are unaware of these deadlines, particularly older generations. It’s essential for retailers and shipping carriers to provide clear and timely information about shipping deadlines to help consumers avoid last-minute stress and disappointment.”
For best results, Stamps.com advises consumers to begin holiday shopping early and familiarize themselves with shipping deadlines across carriers. That is especially true with Thanksgiving falling later this year, meaning the holiday season is shorter and planning ahead is even more essential.
According to Stamps.com, key shipping deadlines include:
December 13, 2024: Last day for FedEx Ground Economy
December 18, 2024: Last day for USPS Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail
December 19, 2024: Last day for UPS 3 Day Select and USPS Priority Mail
December 20, 2024: Last day for UPS 2nd Day Air
December 21, 2024: Last day for USPS Priority Mail Express
Measured over the entire year of 2024, retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales will be returned. But that total figure includes a spike of returns during the holidays; a separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate.
Despite the cost of handling that massive reverse logistics task, retailers grin and bear it because product returns are so tightly integrated with brand loyalty, offering companies an additional touchpoint to provide a positive interaction with their customers, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. According to NRF’s research, 76% of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again. And 84% of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
So in response to consumer demand, retailers continue to enhance the return experience for customers. More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months. In addition, improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
However, retailers also must balance meeting consumer demand for seamless returns against rising costs. Fraudulent and abusive returns practices create both logistical and financial challenges for retailers. A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business. In terms of abuse, bracketing – purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some – has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration – they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said in a release. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
The research came from two complementary surveys conducted this fall, allowing NRF and Happy Returns to compare perspectives from both sides. They included one that gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, and another from 249 e-commerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers.
The “series A” round was led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Y Combinator and strategic industry investors, including RyderVentures. It follows an earlier, previously undisclosed, pre-seed round raised 1.5 years ago, that was backed by Array Ventures and other angel investors.
“Our mission is to redefine the economics of the freight industry by harnessing the power of agentic AI,ˮ Pablo Palafox, HappyRobotʼs co-founder and CEO, said in a release. “This funding will enable us to accelerate product development, expand and support our customer base, and ultimately transform how logistics businesses operate.ˮ
According to the firm, its conversational AI platform uses agentic AI—a term for systems that can autonomously make decisions and take actions to achieve specific goals—to simplify logistics operations. HappyRobot says its tech can automate tasks like inbound and outbound calls, carrier negotiations, and data capture, thus enabling brokers to enhance efficiency and capacity, improve margins, and free up human agents to focus on higher-value activities.
“Today, the logistics industry underpinning our global economy is stretched,” Anish Acharya, general partner at a16z, said. “As a key part of the ecosystem, even small to midsize freight brokers can make and receive hundreds, if not thousands, of calls per day – and hiring for this job is increasingly difficult. By providing customers with autonomous decision making, HappyRobotʼs agentic AI platform helps these brokers operate more reliably and efficiently.ˮ
RJW Logistics Group, a logistics solutions provider (LSP) for consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands, has received a “strategic investment” from Boston-based private equity firm Berkshire partners, and now plans to drive future innovations and expand its geographic reach, the Woodridge, Illinois-based company said Tuesday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the company said that CEO Kevin Williamson and other members of RJW management will continue to be “significant investors” in the company, while private equity firm Mason Wells, which invested in RJW in 2019, will maintain a minority investment position.
RJW is an asset-based transportation, logistics, and warehousing provider, operating more than 7.3 million square feet of consolidation warehouse space in the transportation hubs of Chicago and Dallas and employing 1,900 people. RJW says it partners with over 850 CPG brands and delivers to more than 180 retailers nationwide. According to the company, its retail logistics solutions save cost, improve visibility, and achieve industry-leading On-Time, In-Full (OTIF) performance. Those improvements drive increased in-stock rates and sales, benefiting both CPG brands and their retailer partners, the firm says.
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain” report.
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.