You will notice that this year, I'm sending my letter to you by the (for the most part) reliable U.S. mail. Given all the hacking, eavesdropping, and other unpleasantness surrounding e-mail, I wanted to make sure my requests did not end up on someone's basement server.
With the tortuous presidential campaign sparking so much animosity, it has been a tiring year, but for better or worse, we have a new president. While somewhat short on intellectual content, the campaign itself was entertaining in a "Here Comes Honey Boo Boo" kind of way, but it is time to look ahead and do what we can to keep our supply chains functioning smoothly and efficiently. To do so, we really need your help.
As you know, this industry has always been fraught with buzzwords and terms, and they seem to be getting more numerous and ridiculous. Space does not permit a full discussion, but please see if you can kill "uberization." The so-called uberization of transportation and warehousing really has little similarity to an app-aided taxi service. On-demand warehousing and transportation are not new. Certainly, the new enabling technology is superior, but let's just call it what it is. Armstrong and Associates has proposed "digital freight matching" for trucking, and the warehousing version is simply on-demand warehousing.
Recently, I wrote about the Surface Transportation Board's proposal to make it easier for "captive shippers" to seek approval for reciprocal switching under certain circumstances. Personally, I think it is a good idea if the privilege is not abused. Surprisingly, UPS has weighed in in support of the rails' opposition to the new rules. Although not a captive shipper by any stretch of the imagination, it maintains that the granting of this privilege could result in higher costs and an overall deterioration in rail service. If that happens, says UPS, it might be forced to switch its intermodal business back to the highways. As a $1 billion-per-year rail shipper, its clout in Washington is not insignificant. I am sure the truckers would say, "Go for it," but will you please take a look and see if you can find a solution that would be fair to all but require minimal regulatory involvement?
Much to the surprise and consternation of political experts and most of the media, Donald Trump is our new president-elect. Given the way the campaign devolved into a personal battle between the two candidates, it is difficult to know where he stands on the issues that concern supply chain professionals, or anyone else for that matter. What we do know is that the election demonstrated to us how open some of our wounds are. While this is a little out of your field, I hope you will fill his stocking with the leadership skills and tact he needs to succeed.
Trump did have some thoughts on infrastructure, however. Hillary Clinton had proposed a $250 billion expenditure over the next five years. Trump said he would kick that up to $1 trillion in spending over 10 years, financing it with bonds and tax credits. Details are sketchy, but at least he thought about it. Please see if you can push him toward appointing the experts he needs to accomplish this. He is going to find that building roads and bridges is pretty far removed from building hotels and golf courses.
I happen to believe that the Trans-Pacific Partnership would be good for the country. Trump is opposed to it, so hopefully you can put some nice toys in the right stockings and help President Obama push it through the lame-duck Congress.
As always, please be careful out there. Both FedEx and UPS are predicting record holiday seasons, and if their numbers are accurate, the Christmas Eve skies may be a little congested.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain” report.
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Freight transportation sector analysts with US Bank say they expect change on the horizon in that market for 2025, due to possible tariffs imposed by a new White House administration, the return of East and Gulf coast port strikes, and expanding freight fraud.
“All three of these merit scrutiny, and that is our promise as we roll into the new year,” the company said in a statement today.
First, US Bank said a new administration will occupy the White House and will control the House and Senate for the first time since 2016. With an announced mandate on tariffs, taxes and trade from his electoral victory, President-Elect Trump’s anticipated actions are almost certain to impact the supply chain, the bank said.
Second, a strike by longshoreman at East Coast and Gulf ports was suspended in October, but the can was only kicked until mid-January. Shipper alarm bells are already ringing, and with peak season in full swing, the West coast ports are roaring, having absorbed containers bound for the East. However, that status may not be sustainable in the event of a prolonged strike in January, US Bank said.
And third, analyst are tracking the proliferation of freight fraud, and its reverberations across the supply chain. No longer the realm of petty criminals, freight fraudsters have become increasingly sophisticated, and the financial toll of their activities in the loss of goods, and data, is expected to be in the billions, the bank estimates.
The move delivers on its August announcement of a fleet renewal plan that will allow the company to proceed on its path to decarbonization, according to a statement from Anda Cristescu, Head of Chartering & Newbuilding at Maersk.
The first vessels will be delivered in 2028, and the last delivery will take place in 2030, enabling a total capacity to haul 300,000 twenty foot equivalent units (TEU) using lower emissions fuel. The new vessels will be built in sizes from 9,000 to 17,000 TEU each, allowing them to fill various roles and functions within the company’s future network.
In the meantime, the company will also proceed with its plan to charter a range of methanol and liquified gas dual-fuel vessels totaling 500,000 TEU capacity, replacing existing capacity. Maersk has now finalized these charter contracts across several tonnage providers, the company said.
The shipyards now contracted to build the vessels are: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and New Times Shipbuilding—both in China—and Hanwha Ocean in South Korea.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”