Dry-van truckload line-haul rates could fall into negative territory in 2016, dragged down by persistent deterioration in noncontract, or spot, pricing, according to a report issued yesterday by investment firm Avondale Partners LLC and freight bill audit and payment firm Cass Information Systems Inc.
The firms said van truckload line-haul pricing for the year will come in at between minus 1 percent and 2 percent, with continuing weakness in demand and a corresponding rise in capacity keeping rates firmly in check. Yesterday's announcement represents a downward revision from last month, when the firms forecast that rates in 2016 would rise between 1 and 3 percent. They added at the time, though, that the risks to the forecast were to the downside.
In February, the truckload rate index rose 0.5 percent year-over-year, compared with a similarly modest 0.4-percent rise in January, the companies said. The gains in the index are due to a firming in contract pricing based on negotiations during the same time frame in 2015. Contract pricing applies to more than 95 percent of the freight hauled by publicly traded truckload carriers. By contrast, spot rates, which account for about 25 to 35 percent of the vast truckload market, including public and private carriers, has declined decisively into negative territory, the firms said. The dilemma for carriers—and conversely an opportunity for shippers and third-party logistics providers—is that contract pricing tends to follow spot-market trends with a few months' lag.
The pricing weakness is even more acute in intermodal, where demand for rail services have declined as low diesel prices continue to drive freight back to the highway. The intermodal index prepared by the two firms fell in February by 3.8 percent year-over-year, marking the 14th consecutive month of year-over-year declines. Intermodal rates will continue declining through 2016 as low diesel prices take its toll on domestic demand, the firms forecast.
According to Avondale analysts, any gains in domestic container traffic, which accounts for the vast majority of U.S. intermodal business, will depend on whether demand in the longer lengths of haul in the western U.S. can offset declines in the more densely populated eastern half of the country, where stage lengths are shorter and where trucking services are more cost-competitive with intermodal.
Spot truckload rates have been weak for more than a year. With demand flattish and a plunge in diesel-fuel prices propping up capacity by keeping marginal carriers in business, there has been relatively scant appetite on shippers' part for spot-market services. In addition, truck users may be looking to capitalize on attractive contract rates to lock in prices ahead of what many observers believe will be a capacity contraction in 2017 and 2018 due to the cumulative impact of government regulations. However, soothsayers have been predicting a sharp capacity shortage for years, only to miss the mark virtually every time.
Ben Cubitt, senior vice president, engineering and strategic carrier management for Dallas-based 3PL Transplace, which works extensively with truckload carriers, said in an e-mail today that capacity is "amazingly loose" and that rates remain "very, very soft." But in a contrary view, Mark Montague, industry rate analyst for DAT Solutions, a Portland, Ore.-based spot-market load-board operator, said that van and flatbed rates have recently stabilized after a long period of weak demand. DAT's load-to-truck ratios, which measure the number of dry van loads per available truck, are showing signs of recovery, a trend which usually points to higher spot rates in the near future, Montague added.
"It may be premature to forecast negative rates increases for contract rates in 2016," Montague said in an e-mail. "A lot depends on how the next three months shape up."
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The British logistics robot vendor Dexory this week said it has raised $80 million in venture funding to support an expansion of its artificial intelligence (AI) powered features, grow its global team, and accelerate the deployment of its autonomous robots.
A “significant focus” continues to be on expanding across the U.S. market, where Dexory is live with customers in seven states and last month opened a U.S. headquarters in Nashville. The Series B will also enhance development and production facilities at its UK headquarters, the firm said.
The “series B” funding round was led by DTCP, with participation from Latitude Ventures, Wave-X and Bootstrap Europe, along with existing investors Atomico, Lakestar, Capnamic, and several angels from the logistics industry. With the close of the round, Dexory has now raised $120 million over the past three years.
Dexory says its product, DexoryView, provides real-time visibility across warehouses of any size through its autonomous mobile robots and AI. The rolling bots use sensor and image data and continuous data collection to perform rapid warehouse scans and create digital twins of warehouse spaces, allowing for optimized performance and future scenario simulations.
Originally announced in September, the move will allow Deutsche Bahn to “fully focus on restructuring the rail infrastructure in Germany and providing climate-friendly passenger and freight transport operations in Germany and Europe,” Werner Gatzer, Chairman of the DB Supervisory Board, said in a release.
For its purchase price, DSV gains an organization with around 72,700 employees at over 1,850 locations. The new owner says it plans to investment around one billion euros in coming years to promote additional growth in German operations. Together, DSV and Schenker will have a combined workforce of approximately 147,000 employees in more than 90 countries, earning pro forma revenue of approximately $43.3 billion (based on 2023 numbers), DSV said.
After removing that unit, Deutsche Bahn retains its core business called the “Systemverbund Bahn,” which includes passenger transport activities in Germany, rail freight activities, operational service units, and railroad infrastructure companies. The DB Group, headquartered in Berlin, employs around 340,000 people.
“We have set clear goals to structurally modernize Deutsche Bahn in the areas of infrastructure, operations and profitability and focus on the core business. The proceeds from the sale will significantly reduce DB’s debt and thus make an important contribution to the financial stability of the DB Group. At the same time, DB Schenker will gain a strong strategic owner in DSV,” Deutsche Bahn CEO Richard Lutz said in a release.
Transportation industry veteran Anne Reinke will become president & CEO of trade group the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) at the end of the year, stepping into the position from her previous post leading third party logistics (3PL) trade group the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), both organizations said today.
Meanwhile, TIA today announced that insider Christopher Burroughs would fill Reinke’s shoes as president & CEO. Burroughs has been with TIA for 13 years, most recently as its vice president of Government Affairs for the past six years, during which time he oversaw all legislative and regulatory efforts before Congress and the federal agencies.
Before her four years leading TIA, Reinke spent two years as Deputy Assistant Secretary with the U.S. Department of Transportation and 16 years with CSX Corporation.
Serious inland flooding and widespread power outages are likely to sweep across Florida and other Southeast states in coming days with the arrival of Hurricane Helene, which is now predicted to make landfall Thursday evening along Florida’s northwest coast as a major hurricane, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
While the most catastrophic landfall impact is expected in the sparsely-population Big Bend area of Florida, it’s not only sea-front cities that are at risk. Since Helene is an “unusually large storm,” its flooding, rainfall, and high winds won’t be limited only to the Gulf Coast, but are expected to travel hundreds of miles inland, the weather service said. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin in the region even before the storm comes ashore, and the wet conditions will continue to move northward into the southern Appalachians region through Friday, dumping storm total rainfall amounts of up to 18 inches. Specifically, the major flood risk includes the urban areas around Tallahassee, metro Atlanta, and western North Carolina.
In addition to its human toll, the storm could exert serious business impacts, according to the supply chain mapping and monitoring firm Resilinc. Those will be largely triggered by significant flooding, which could halt oil operations, force mandatory evacuations, restrict ports, and disrupt air traffic.
While the storm’s track is currently forecast to miss the critical ports of Miami and New Orleans, it could still hurt operations throughout the Southeast agricultural belt, which produces products like soybeans, cotton, peanuts, corn, and tobacco, according to Everstream Analytics.
That widespread footprint could also hinder supply chain and logistics flows along stretches of interstate highways I-10 and I-75 and on regional rail lines operated by Norfolk Southern and CSX. And Hurricane Helene could also likely impact business operations by unleashing power outages, deep flooding, and wind damage in northern Florida portions of Georgia, Everstream Analytics said.
Before the storm had even touched Florida soil, recovery efforts were already being launched by humanitarian aid group the American Logistics Aid Network (ALAN). In a statement on Wednesday, the group said it is urging residents in the storm's path across the Southeast to heed evacuation notices and safety advisories, and reminding members of the logistics community that their post-storm help could be needed soon. The group will continue to update its Disaster Micro-Site with Hurricane Helene resources and with requests for donated logistics assistance, most of which will start arriving within 24 to 72 hours after the storm’s initial landfall, ALAN said.