Friedmann's fearless forecast

Getting Peter A. Friedmann's personal take on what's happening in Washington is a unique experience. His rapid-fire, witty rundown of the doings in DC is a highlight of the annual Northeast Trade and Transportation Conference put on by the Coalition of New England Companies for Trade (CONECT). (CONECT is one of the trade groups Friedmann represents in the nation's capital.)

Here are just a few of his observations from this year's talk, titled "The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly: Challenges to Your Supply Chain in This Election Year":

• NAFTA: The treaty is not in serious danger from election-year posturing, but organized labor will still pressure the Democrats' eventual candidate to continue pushing for changes.
• Free trade agreements: Don't hold your breath waiting for more. Friedmann doesn't expect to see any signed in the near future, not even with South Korea.
• Infrastructure investment: Both Democrats and Republicans agree that we need it, but how to pay? Don't be surprised to see gas taxes increase by 30 to 40 percent over the next 10 years.
• Hours-of-service regulations: If a Democrat gets into the White House, the new administration will bring the Teamsters into the discussion, and any revisions are likely to be more stringent than the current, management-drafted rules.
• Mexican truckers: The cross-border pilot program will end the moment a Democrat gets into the White House, although the Republicans might shut it down before then. Congress is "pretty clear" that it wants to dump the program.
• Short-sea shipping: The U.S. Maritime Administration, labor unions, environmentalists, and others want to promote coastal shipping. They won't succeed unless the Jones Act, which mandates that domestic services use U.S.-built ships handled by U.S. labor unions, is repealed. "If you eliminate the Jones Act, you eliminate the cost barrier to short-sea shipping," Friedmann said.