Peter Bradley is an award-winning career journalist with more than three decades of experience in both newspapers and national business magazines. His credentials include seven years as the transportation and supply chain editor at Purchasing Magazine and six years as the chief editor of Logistics Management.
Every year, students in John Bartholdi's warehousing and distribution class at Georgia Tech choose a handful of remote locations around the globe and send packages off to each of them via UPS, FedEx, and DHL. The exercise has become known as The Great Package Race. Its objective is to see which carrier reaches the remote and sometimes dangerous locations first.
Last year, the students selected Apia, the only city on the island of Upulu (a part of Samoa); Florianopolis, an island off the southern coast of Brazil; Harare, the capital of Zimbabwe; Tikrit, the birthplace of Saddam Hussein in Iraq; and Yangon (formerly Rangoon), until recently the capital of Burma (or Myanmar, as its military rulers would have it).
Bartholdi, who is the research director for Georgia Tech's Supply Chain and Logistics Institute, is careful to note that The Great Package Race is just a way to get students interested in the challenges of global shipping and should not be viewed as a valid comparison of the carriers' performance. But the exercise does serve to illustrate the reach of the three major express carriers.
As the Georgia Tech students learn, FedEx, UPS, and DHL can indeed deliver to addresses almost anywhere in the world. But that's not all they do: As they have extended their physical reach, they have also expanded into the types of services traditionally offered by freight forwarders and customs brokers.
By adding brokerage, forwarding, and other information-related services to their lineups, the Big Three express carriers can offer something approaching a one-stop shopping experience for international parcel shipments. And because they have expanded the scope of their services while simplifying import and export procedures for their customers, they've opened the door to global trade for a growing number of companies—particularly small and mid-sized players that may previously have found international trade daunting.
Navigating the global marketplace
Trimble Navigation Ltd. is one of the small and medium-sized enterprises that have benefited from the parcel carriers' comprehensive international services. The California-based company provides positioning technologies for the agriculture, engineering and construction, transportation, and wireless communications industries. It has offices in 18 countries, manufacturing facilities in Asia, and customers around the globe.
Trimble uses all of the major express service providers to import and export parcels, many of which are destined for—or departing from—the shipper's Dayton, Ohio, distribution center, says Brigitte Smith, Trimble's manager of transportation and logistics. Smith demands speed and a high degree of reliability—critical factors for a company that promises turnaround times of 24 to 48 hours and must provide warranty replacements and service for thousands of products.
The high-tech company relies on its parcel carriers not just to provide transportation but also to help it manage the complexities of international shipping. While it's important for any importer or exporter to be familiar with the regulations of the countries it operates in, Smith says, carriers can and should be able to provide additional expertise in areas like commodity classifications. She also expects them to provide a comprehensive customs service, including automated clearance, reporting, and management of drawback claims.
Along with using their transportation services, Smith also benefits from using the shipping software that the express carriers provide. She cites DHL's EasyShip program as an example of the type of software tool she has come to rely on. EasyShip offers automated document preparation and processing, shipment management tools, shipment tracking, and database management and maintenance for international traders.
Smith especially likes the fact that express carriers are so versatile nowadays. In the past, Trimble sometimes had to use four or five different service providers to handle various parcel shipping activities, but that's no longer the case. "It is nice to have a carrier that has the flexibility to provide services without branching out to a forwarder," she says.
Window on the world
Trimble is just one of thousands of small and medium-sized companies that are now taking advantage of express carriers' international services. In fact, says Carl Asmus, vice president of international marketing for FedEx Services, small and mid-sized companies represent the fastest-growing segment of the international parcel shipping market. "In the past, they have not had the resources to participate in international sourcing or selling," he explains. "[But now] they have to do it in order to survive. They have to compete with companies that can source around the world or have markets around the world."
For many of them, parcel carriers can provide the necessary resources. Henk Vlietstra, vice president of international services for DHL Express, says that by having offices around the world staffed with employees who understand import and export rules, parcel carriers can extend the reach of shippers that don't have their own international facilities. "They effectively have the capability to do international sourcing," he says.
In some cases, carriers are not only enabling smaller companies to build an international supply chain but are also actively encouraging it through education. FedEx, for instance, began a program in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2004 that offers seminars on exporting to small and mid-sized companies in Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico.
The international trade software that parcel carriers provide to their customers allows even small shippers to track their goods and ensure that those shipments comply with diverse and perpetually changing regulatory and security regimes. By providing a window on the world, these software tools encourage companies with limited international trade experience to venture across borders.
UPS, for example, developed its TradeAbility software package to help those shippers overcome many of the obstacles to international trade, says Ross McCullough, vice president of global marketing. The software, which helps international shippers generate cost estimates for duties, taxes, and transportation and locate compliance information for 34 countries, can take some of the worry out of exporting and importing for shippers that may not even know where to start. McCullough notes that UPS's WorldShip software, which provides direct Internet connections between shippers' own databases and UPS's air and ground information systems, is installed in some 550,000 locations around the world.
FedEx has focused on developing technology that improves the speed and reliability of its international express services, says Asmus. Among the tools it makes available to customers is FedEx InSight, a Web-based program that provides visibility into inbound, outbound, and third-party shipments, allowing shippers to find out about customs-clearance delays while it's still early enough to take corrective action. At the same time, the carrier has been promoting its Internet-based FedEx Global Trade Manager service as a tool to guide customers who are new to international trade through the international shipping process. The program includes import and export documents from more than 200 countries, assists in landed-cost calculations, and conducts denied-party screening for exports.
DHL, too, offers international shipping tools for customers of all sizes. "We can do automated shipment preparation for everyone from the mom-and-pop shipper to operations that ship up to 7,000 parcels per day," says Vlietstra. In addition to the EasyShip software that Trimble uses, the carrier offers DHL Import Express Online. The program helps importers prepare import shipments and manage the details from pickup to delivery.
Keep walking the walk
Demand for international services almost certainly will continue to grow as more shippers take the plunge into international trade. The express carriers are responding by expanding their physical and technical infrastructure to give their customers what they need, wherever they need it.
These days, where they need it is likely to be China or India. Even the smallest of international traders are now venturing into those markets. But bureaucracy is deeply entrenched in China and India, and it can be challenging to stay abreast of their constantly changing (and sometimes inconsistent) regulatory requirements. In those cases, smaller importers and exporters may end up relying more heavily than ever on their parcel carriers to help them navigate the trade landscape.
UPS, FedEx, and DHL will be ready. UPS, for instance, has allied with AFL, an express carrier in India that will pick up international shipments on its behalf. Big Brown also expects to open a new international air hub at Pudong International Airport in Shanghai later this year.
FedEx Express will offer FedEx International Economy, a new day-definite, customs-cleared, door-to-door service in 10 Asia-Pacific markets. Last year, FedEx acquired express businesses in China and India, and by the end of 2008, it expects to complete a new air hub at Guangzhou's Baiyun International Airport in South China.
DHL, meanwhile, has expanded its lift capacity between the United States and Asia through a 20-year agreement with Polar Air Cargo Worldwide. And in May 2007, it consolidated its various investments in Indian logistics, freight forwarding, and customs brokerage into a single joint venture.
Regardless of where in the world they do business, international shippers of all sizes are likely to demand much from their carriers. Smith of Trimble Navigation certainly does. "It is a very competitive world, and we have to do what we can to ensure that our customers will come back to us," she says. "Our carriers have to talk the talk and walk the walk."
Worldwide air cargo rates rose to a 2024 high in November of $2.76 per kilo, despite a slight (-2%) drop in flown tonnages compared with October, according to analysis by WorldACD Market data.
The healthy rate comes as demand and pricing both remain significantly above their already elevated levels last November, the Dutch firm said.
The new figures reflect worldwide air cargo markets that remain relatively strong, including shipments originating in the Asia Pacific, but where good advance planning by air cargo stakeholders looks set to avert a major peak season capacity crunch and very steep rate rises in the final weeks of the year, WorldACD said.
Despite that effective planning, average worldwide rates in November rose by 6% month on month (MoM), based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, taking them to their highest level since January 2023 and 11% higher, year on year (YoY). The biggest MoM increases came from Europe (+10%) and Central & South America (+9%) origins, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
But overall global tonnages in November were down -2%, MoM, with the biggest percentage decline coming from Middle East & South Asia (-11%) origins, which have been highly elevated for most of this year. But the -4%, MoM, decrease from Europe origins was responsible for a similar drop in tonnage terms – reflecting reduced passenger belly capacity since the start of aviation’s winter season from 27 October, including cuts in passenger services by European carriers to and from China.
Each of those points could have a stark impact on business operations, the firm said. First, supply chain restrictions will continue to drive up costs, following examples like European tariffs on Chinese autos and the U.S. plan to prevent Chinese software and hardware from entering cars in America.
Second, reputational risk will peak due to increased corporate transparency and due diligence laws, such as Germany’s Supply Chain Due Diligence Act that addresses hotpoint issues like modern slavery, forced labor, human trafficking, and environmental damage. In an age when polarized public opinion is combined with ever-present social media, doing business with a supplier whom a lot of your customers view negatively will be hard to navigate.
And third, advances in data, technology, and supplier risk assessments will enable executives to measure the impact of disruptions more effectively. Those calculations can help organizations determine whether their risk mitigation strategies represent value for money when compared to the potential revenues losses in the event of a supply chain disruption.
“Looking past the holidays, retailers will need to prepare for the typical challenges posed by seasonal slowdown in consumer demand. This year, however, there will be much less of a lull, as U.S. companies are accelerating some purchases that could potentially be impacted by a new wave of tariffs on U.S. imports,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management Solutions at Moody’s, said in a release. “Tariffs, sanctions and other supply chain restrictions will likely be top of the 2025 agenda for procurement executives.”
As holiday shoppers blitz through the final weeks of the winter peak shopping season, a survey from the postal and shipping solutions provider Stamps.com shows that 40% of U.S. consumers are unaware of holiday shipping deadlines, leaving them at risk of running into last-minute scrambles, higher shipping costs, and packages arriving late.
The survey also found a generational difference in holiday shipping deadline awareness, with 53% of Baby Boomers unaware of these cut-off dates, compared to just 32% of Millennials. Millennials are also more likely to prioritize guaranteed delivery, with 68% citing it as a key factor when choosing a shipping option this holiday season.
Of those surveyed, 66% have experienced holiday shipping delays, with Gen Z reporting the highest rate of delays at 73%, compared to 49% of Baby Boomers. That statistical spread highlights a conclusion that younger generations are less tolerant of delays and prioritize fast and efficient shipping, researchers said. The data came from a study of 1,000 U.S. consumers conducted in October 2024 to understand their shopping habits and preferences.
As they cope with that tight shipping window, a huge 83% of surveyed consumers are willing to pay extra for faster shipping to avoid the prospect of a late-arriving gift. This trend is especially strong among Gen Z, with 56% willing to pay up, compared to just 27% of Baby Boomers.
“As the holiday season approaches, it’s crucial for consumers to be prepared and aware of shipping deadlines to ensure their gifts arrive on time,” Nick Spitzman, General Manager of Stamps.com, said in a release. ”Our survey highlights the significant portion of consumers who are unaware of these deadlines, particularly older generations. It’s essential for retailers and shipping carriers to provide clear and timely information about shipping deadlines to help consumers avoid last-minute stress and disappointment.”
For best results, Stamps.com advises consumers to begin holiday shopping early and familiarize themselves with shipping deadlines across carriers. That is especially true with Thanksgiving falling later this year, meaning the holiday season is shorter and planning ahead is even more essential.
According to Stamps.com, key shipping deadlines include:
December 13, 2024: Last day for FedEx Ground Economy
December 18, 2024: Last day for USPS Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail
December 19, 2024: Last day for UPS 3 Day Select and USPS Priority Mail
December 20, 2024: Last day for UPS 2nd Day Air
December 21, 2024: Last day for USPS Priority Mail Express
Measured over the entire year of 2024, retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales will be returned. But that total figure includes a spike of returns during the holidays; a separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate.
Despite the cost of handling that massive reverse logistics task, retailers grin and bear it because product returns are so tightly integrated with brand loyalty, offering companies an additional touchpoint to provide a positive interaction with their customers, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. According to NRF’s research, 76% of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again. And 84% of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
So in response to consumer demand, retailers continue to enhance the return experience for customers. More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months. In addition, improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
However, retailers also must balance meeting consumer demand for seamless returns against rising costs. Fraudulent and abusive returns practices create both logistical and financial challenges for retailers. A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business. In terms of abuse, bracketing – purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some – has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration – they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said in a release. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
The research came from two complementary surveys conducted this fall, allowing NRF and Happy Returns to compare perspectives from both sides. They included one that gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, and another from 249 e-commerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers.
The “series A” round was led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Y Combinator and strategic industry investors, including RyderVentures. It follows an earlier, previously undisclosed, pre-seed round raised 1.5 years ago, that was backed by Array Ventures and other angel investors.
“Our mission is to redefine the economics of the freight industry by harnessing the power of agentic AI,ˮ Pablo Palafox, HappyRobotʼs co-founder and CEO, said in a release. “This funding will enable us to accelerate product development, expand and support our customer base, and ultimately transform how logistics businesses operate.ˮ
According to the firm, its conversational AI platform uses agentic AI—a term for systems that can autonomously make decisions and take actions to achieve specific goals—to simplify logistics operations. HappyRobot says its tech can automate tasks like inbound and outbound calls, carrier negotiations, and data capture, thus enabling brokers to enhance efficiency and capacity, improve margins, and free up human agents to focus on higher-value activities.
“Today, the logistics industry underpinning our global economy is stretched,” Anish Acharya, general partner at a16z, said. “As a key part of the ecosystem, even small to midsize freight brokers can make and receive hundreds, if not thousands, of calls per day – and hiring for this job is increasingly difficult. By providing customers with autonomous decision making, HappyRobotʼs agentic AI platform helps these brokers operate more reliably and efficiently.ˮ