Today's DC site selection teams want to know about a site's access to highways, and most of these teams are more concerned about labor supply and tax incentives than about transportation rates and availability.
Forty years ago, when you wanted to expand your distribution network and build a new DC, you didn't call an industrial real estate broker; you called a railroad. Most large companies shipped their product—whether it was boxes of cereal or rolls of carpet—by rail, which meant they needed access to a rail siding. The nation's railroads owned plenty of raw land, much of it located along the rail rights of way, thanks to government land grants handed out in the mid 1800s to encourage development in the nation's heartland. And the railroads were only too eager to sell off plots for nominal amounts in exchange for a contractual promise of so many carloads of freight. Some even threw in extras like extended rail sidings, rate discounts and extra services to snag a desirable account.
But those days have vanished with the steam locomotive. Today's DC site selection teams want to know about a site's access to highways, not railroads; very few distribution centers today even have rail sidings. And most of these teams are more concerned about labor supply and tax incentives than about transportation rates and availability. Unless they have experienced transportation professionals aboard, they're likely to see "transportation access" as just another entry on an extensive A to Z site-selection checklist that runs the gamut from "availability of labor" to "zoning requirements" (see sidebar).
site selection from A to Z
Your team thinks it's found a great DC location. But is it the right site for you? Here are some factors to consider:
Availability and cost of labor
Availability of industrial support services
Availability of special financing; i.e., industrial revenue bonds
Building restrictions, if any; i.e., height, setbacks, landscape requirements
Availability of community services; i.e., commercial, churches, medical
Educational facilities
EPA requirements; i.e., water retention
Fire codes/protection
Land or building availability and cost
Location and volume of customers to be served
Origin of products and materials flowing into warehouse
That would be a mistake. "Transportation access" is about much more than the distance to the nearest interstate highway, and a potential site's transportation profile deserves careful review. For most corporations, transportation still remains a big budget item—freight bills account for anywhere from 70 to 85 cents of every dollar spent on logistics, depending on the product mix.
With that kind of money at stake, you don't want to stumble. Yet all too often, that's what happens. Many times, for example, companies compare the pros and cons of potential locations by running a sophisticated network analysis model using current transportation rates to and from the sites. Sounds like a reasonable place to start, but there's one problem: Although the model will crank out a fairly accurate analysis of the situation as it stands today, it tells them nothing about how things will look in the future. For that, logistics and DC managers need to do some digging. Once they've gotten to the shortlist stage, managers should arrange to meet with the carriers serving the cities under consideration. Those meetings often yield some unexpected information and may even result in price breaks. It's important to keep in mind that almost any traffic lane represents some trucker's backhaul, and your ability to fill those empty trailers could prove a powerful bargaining chip.
Another trap for inexperienced site selection teams is failure to consider transportation equipment availability. Even cities that are widely considered to be major distribution points and boast service from a large number of carriers may be plagued by equipment shortages. That's particularly true if the local DCs handle large volumes of products that originate offshore and are hauled to the cities in ocean containers rather than trailers, creating an imbalance between the number of trucks going out and the number coming in. Analyzing the market dynamics in advance could keep you from signing a contract you'll live to regret. It could also give you more clout when negotiating rates if you can demonstrate that your inbound traffic will help correct that imbalance.
In the end, of course, the decision will hinge on more than transportation. Real estate, environmental, labor, community and other site location factors must be brought to bear on the choice. And it would be foolhardy not to investigate tax structures and zoning regulations. But keep in mind that in the final analysis, it's all about getting your products into the facility and then on out to your customers.
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain” report.
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Freight transportation sector analysts with US Bank say they expect change on the horizon in that market for 2025, due to possible tariffs imposed by a new White House administration, the return of East and Gulf coast port strikes, and expanding freight fraud.
“All three of these merit scrutiny, and that is our promise as we roll into the new year,” the company said in a statement today.
First, US Bank said a new administration will occupy the White House and will control the House and Senate for the first time since 2016. With an announced mandate on tariffs, taxes and trade from his electoral victory, President-Elect Trump’s anticipated actions are almost certain to impact the supply chain, the bank said.
Second, a strike by longshoreman at East Coast and Gulf ports was suspended in October, but the can was only kicked until mid-January. Shipper alarm bells are already ringing, and with peak season in full swing, the West coast ports are roaring, having absorbed containers bound for the East. However, that status may not be sustainable in the event of a prolonged strike in January, US Bank said.
And third, analyst are tracking the proliferation of freight fraud, and its reverberations across the supply chain. No longer the realm of petty criminals, freight fraudsters have become increasingly sophisticated, and the financial toll of their activities in the loss of goods, and data, is expected to be in the billions, the bank estimates.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”
A measure of business conditions for shippers improved in September due to lower fuel costs, looser trucking capacity, and lower freight rates, but the freight transportation forecasting firm FTR still expects readings to be weaker and closer to neutral through its two-year forecast period.
Bloomington, Indiana-based FTR is maintaining its stance that trucking conditions will improve, even though its Shippers Conditions Index (SCI) improved in September to 4.6 from a 2.9 reading in August, reaching its strongest level of the year.
“The fact that September’s index is the strongest since last December is not a sign that shippers’ market conditions are steadily improving,” Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking, said in a release.
“September and May were modest outliers this year in a market that is at least becoming more balanced. We expect that trend to continue and for SCI readings to be mostly negative to neutral in 2025 and 2026. However, markets in transition tend to be volatile, so further outliers are likely and possibly in both directions. The supply chain implications of tariffs are a wild card for 2025 especially,” he said.
The SCI tracks the changes representing four major conditions in the U.S. full-load freight market: freight demand, freight rates, fleet capacity, and fuel price. Combined into a single index, a positive score represents good, optimistic conditions, while a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions.