Good things are worth waiting for, a conclusion reached by most of the logistics industry when President Bush finally signed the Highway Bill into law in late July—nearly two years after it was due. The final bill not only guarantees that $286.4 billion will go toward maintaining and improving the nation's transportation system over the next six years, but it also deleted a controversial provision that would have mandated fuel surcharges in the trucking industry.
The fuel surcharge provision was mostly the brainchild of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, which argued that the surcharge was necessary to force larger truckers and brokers to pass along to smaller operators the fuel surcharges they collect from shippers. However, shipping groups like NASSTRAC and the National Industrial Transportation League put up a powerful fight against the proposal.
John Cutler, the Washington-based general counsel for shipping groups like NASSTRAC and the Health and Personal Care Logistics Conference, says that many shippers already have fuel surcharge agreements in their individual contracts with shippers. A federal mandate likely would have resulted in shippers paying for fuel increases twice.
"The idea of making it mandatory was very troubling," says Cutler. "The legislation required it only in truckload contracts, but who knows if things would have stayed that way. Trucking is largely a deregulated industry, and it seemed inconsistent with deregulation for the government to identify one segment to provide protection against inflation. The provision protected truckers at the expense of shippers and consumers, and that seemed wrong to us."
HOS still in flux
The fuel surcharge victory was offset by Congress' failure to address the hours-of-service (HOS) rules for truck drivers. That means the Department of Transportation's Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) must issue a new HOS ruling by the end of September. Truckers and shippers thought they had a new set of rules in place at the beginning of 2004, but a court challenge last year has thrown the regulations into a state of flux.
The FMCSA implemented new hours-of-service rules last January, the first major change to the rules in six decades. But those rules were challenged by several organizations that promote highway safety, led by Public Citizen. The rules were eventually vacated by the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, requiring the FMCSA to revisit several sections. The ruling created considerable confusion until Congress passed a temporary extension of the new rules in September 2004. That extension expires at the end of this September or when a revised rule takes effect, whichever comes first.
The court called the HOS rules "arbitrary and capricious" for their failure to consider their effects on driver health. Among their provisions, the rules allow an increase in driving time to 11 hours a day from 10, while at the same time limiting drivers to a 14-hour work day, down from 15 hours, followed by 10 hours off duty. Drivers resting in a sleeper cab can divide their 10-hour required rest period in two. Drivers are limited to 60 hours on duty in a seven-day period or 70 hours in eight days, but can restart the clock after 34 hours off duty.
The court said that the agency had not sufficiently explained the effects the rules would have on driver health. Shippers fear that if the 2003 hours-of-service rules are made more restrictive, they'll be taking a double hit—their costs will go up and service quality may go down.
"While Congress included several initiatives that we believe will improve highway safety, we are disappointed that they failed to codify hours-of-service regulations," says Bill Graves, president of the American Trucking Associations. "We remain concerned that Congress' inaction on hours-of-service will negatively impact overall highway safety and force the revision of a rule that took eight years to write and is successfully serving its intended purpose."
While the revamping of the current HOS rules could contribute even further to the truck driver shortage, some relief is presented in the highway bill in the form of $5 million for new driver training and recruitment. The funds come at a time when the trucking industry is experiencing a nationwide shortage of 20,000 professional long-haul truck drivers. The ATA projects that figure will increase to 111,000 drivers by 2014.
ATA is also concerned that the highway bill continues to allow a limited number of tolls on existing interstate highways. Graves says that ATA believes that tolls are an inefficient funding mechanism that double-taxes motor carriers and causes substantial diversion of traffic to other, less-safe roads.
Expect delays
Overall, most industry observers grade the bill in the B range, although Tim Lynch, president of the Motor Freight Carriers Association, says that too much funding went to pet projects and not enough was done to address highway congestion. He says that the government and industry need to address how funding will be achieved for the next highway bill.
"We need to take a serious look at the whole revenue stream to support the highway program," he says. "Tolls or other fees were not fully addressed in this legislation but they've been put out there seemingly as calling cards to be seriously looked at. Our highway needs and congestion needs are larger than [the budgeted $286.4 billion]. We need to look at where the bottlenecks are. If we have significant congestion in 10 to 20 major metropolitan areas, we need to focus some resources there, particularly if we ask the users of the system to pay for it. Not addressing this will hurt productivity and the competitive position of U.S. manufacturers."
Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in November, continuing a steady growth pattern that began earlier this year and signaling a return to seasonality after several years of fluctuating conditions, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index report (LMI), released today.
The November LMI registered 58.4, down slightly from October’s reading of 58.9, which was the highest level in two years. The LMI is a monthly gauge of business conditions across warehousing and logistics markets; a reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
“The overall index has been very consistent in the past three months, with readings of 58.6, 58.9, and 58.4,” LMI analyst Zac Rogers, associate professor of supply chain management at Colorado State University, wrote in the November LMI report. “This plateau is slightly higher than a similar plateau of consistency earlier in the year when May to August saw four readings between 55.3 and 56.4. Seasonally speaking, it is consistent that this later year run of readings would be the highest all year.”
Separately, Rogers said the end-of-year growth reflects the return to a healthy holiday peak, which started when inventory levels expanded in late summer and early fall as retailers began stocking up to meet consumer demand. Pandemic-driven shifts in consumer buying behavior, inflation, and economic uncertainty contributed to volatile peak season conditions over the past four years, with the LMI swinging from record-high growth in late 2020 and 2021 to slower growth in 2022 and contraction in 2023.
“The LMI contracted at this time a year ago, so basically [there was] no peak season,” Rogers said, citing inflation as a drag on demand. “To have a normal November … [really] for the first time in five years, justifies what we’ve seen all these companies doing—building up inventory in a sustainable, seasonal way.
“Based on what we’re seeing, a lot of supply chains called it right and were ready for healthy holiday season, so far.”
The LMI has remained in the mid to high 50s range since January—with the exception of April, when the index dipped to 52.9—signaling strong and consistent demand for warehousing and transportation services.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain” report.
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.
Freight transportation sector analysts with US Bank say they expect change on the horizon in that market for 2025, due to possible tariffs imposed by a new White House administration, the return of East and Gulf coast port strikes, and expanding freight fraud.
“All three of these merit scrutiny, and that is our promise as we roll into the new year,” the company said in a statement today.
First, US Bank said a new administration will occupy the White House and will control the House and Senate for the first time since 2016. With an announced mandate on tariffs, taxes and trade from his electoral victory, President-Elect Trump’s anticipated actions are almost certain to impact the supply chain, the bank said.
Second, a strike by longshoreman at East Coast and Gulf ports was suspended in October, but the can was only kicked until mid-January. Shipper alarm bells are already ringing, and with peak season in full swing, the West coast ports are roaring, having absorbed containers bound for the East. However, that status may not be sustainable in the event of a prolonged strike in January, US Bank said.
And third, analyst are tracking the proliferation of freight fraud, and its reverberations across the supply chain. No longer the realm of petty criminals, freight fraudsters have become increasingly sophisticated, and the financial toll of their activities in the loss of goods, and data, is expected to be in the billions, the bank estimates.
The move delivers on its August announcement of a fleet renewal plan that will allow the company to proceed on its path to decarbonization, according to a statement from Anda Cristescu, Head of Chartering & Newbuilding at Maersk.
The first vessels will be delivered in 2028, and the last delivery will take place in 2030, enabling a total capacity to haul 300,000 twenty foot equivalent units (TEU) using lower emissions fuel. The new vessels will be built in sizes from 9,000 to 17,000 TEU each, allowing them to fill various roles and functions within the company’s future network.
In the meantime, the company will also proceed with its plan to charter a range of methanol and liquified gas dual-fuel vessels totaling 500,000 TEU capacity, replacing existing capacity. Maersk has now finalized these charter contracts across several tonnage providers, the company said.
The shipyards now contracted to build the vessels are: Yangzijiang Shipbuilding and New Times Shipbuilding—both in China—and Hanwha Ocean in South Korea.
Specifically, 48% of respondents identified rising tariffs and trade barriers as their top concern, followed by supply chain disruptions at 45% and geopolitical instability at 41%. Moreover, tariffs and trade barriers ranked as the priority issue regardless of company size, as respondents at companies with less than 250 employees, 251-500, 501-1,000, 1,001-50,000 and 50,000+ employees all cited it as the most significant issue they are currently facing.
“Evolving tariffs and trade policies are one of a number of complex issues requiring organizations to build more resilience into their supply chains through compliance, technology and strategic planning,” Jackson Wood, Director, Industry Strategy at Descartes, said in a release. “With the potential for the incoming U.S. administration to impose new and additional tariffs on a wide variety of goods and countries of origin, U.S. importers may need to significantly re-engineer their sourcing strategies to mitigate potentially higher costs.”