Remember the old parlor game where a secret's whispered from person to person? The variance between what the first person said and what the last person heard would invariably produce a laugh.
In the supply chain, however, it's no laughing matter. Students of the supply chain know that variance as "the bullwhip effect," the concept that the farther up the supply chain you go and the further removed from actual customer demand you become, the less predictable and more variable order quantities will be.
Every distribution center manager knows the frustration of trying to match inventory to customer demand. The gap between real demand and the forecasts that businesses act on is painfully familiar. Sherman's Law of Forecast Accuracy states: "Forecast accuracy improves in direct correlation to its distance from usefulness." At an aggregate level, forecasts may approach 90 percent accuracy and beyond. But at the shipping dock, where the actual orders must be filled, the forecasts for exactly what items have to be shipped to precisely what locations often prove reliable less than 60 percent of the time.
To address that, companies can turn to collaborative planning technologies and strategies designed to provide earlier notice of forecast variations to the DC without increasing overall lead times. By starting at the shipping dock and sharing information—such as the scheduling of promotional and pricing events or gaps between, say, what the supplier plans to ship and what customers intend to order—companies can increase the time the operations people have to react when the forecast proves wrong.
Most events that contribute to forecast error occur well before the order needs to be shipped. Supply chains rarely run completely out of stock. Given sufficient response time and visibility into inventory, companies can quickly redeploy goods where they're needed. Today's collaboration software can alert managers to demand variances in real time, thus increasing response time. Giving a logistics manager even a day more to react can significantly reduce expediting expenses, premium transportation costs, and other "firefighting" costs while improving overall customer satisfaction.
Though the advantages of collaboration are fairly generally understood, companies all too often focus on the wrong measures when evaluating their collaborative initiatives' effectiveness. To avoid that trap, we offer the following suggestions:
Don't look at what the forecast variance is, look at why there was a variance. Historical information tends to produce hysterical results.Most forecast variance comes from new events, usually created by sales and marketing or a customer's merchandising strategies. Do you have visibility into these events before you have to fill the order?
Consider your suppliers and customers as partners not adversaries. They probably didn't intend to ruin your day; they just knew something you didn't. Get to know your counterparts on the other side of the dock. Share your plans with them and ask for validation or deviations from their plans. You'll be surprised by how much information they'll share that will improve your response to unplanned events.
Don't set objectives to reduce the cost of overtime, premium transportation and other reactionary expediting costs. Do set objectives to identify and eliminate the causes of these expenses.
The cost of forecast error isn't realized in the planning department or headquarters; it's realized at the shipping and receiving docks. Improving the quality of information and processes to increase response time starting at the DC floor will provide a faster, larger return on investment than initiatives that begin with a better forecast. If you can't ship it, you can't bill it. Start at the point where cost and revenue meet.
Supply chain planning (SCP) leaders working on transformation efforts are focused on two major high-impact technology trends, including composite AI and supply chain data governance, according to a study from Gartner, Inc.
"SCP leaders are in the process of developing transformation roadmaps that will prioritize delivering on advanced decision intelligence and automated decision making," Eva Dawkins, Director Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a release. "Composite AI, which is the combined application of different AI techniques to improve learning efficiency, will drive the optimization and automation of many planning activities at scale, while supply chain data governance is the foundational key for digital transformation.”
Their pursuit of those roadmaps is often complicated by frequent disruptions and the rapid pace of technological innovation. But Gartner says those leaders can accelerate the realized value of technology investments by facilitating a shift from IT-led to business-led digital leadership, with SCP leaders taking ownership of multidisciplinary teams to advance business operations, channels and products.
“A sound data governance strategy supports advanced technologies, such as composite AI, while also facilitating collaboration throughout the supply chain technology ecosystem,” said Dawkins. “Without attention to data governance, SCP leaders will likely struggle to achieve their expected ROI on key technology investments.”
The U.S. manufacturing sector has become an engine of new job creation over the past four years, thanks to a combination of federal incentives and mega-trends like nearshoring and the clean energy boom, according to the industrial real estate firm Savills.
While those manufacturing announcements have softened slightly from their 2022 high point, they remain historically elevated. And the sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of the November U.S. presidential election, the company said in its September “Savills Manufacturing Report.”
From 2021 to 2024, over 995,000 new U.S. manufacturing jobs were announced, with two thirds in advanced sectors like electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries, semiconductors, clean energy, and biomanufacturing. After peaking at 350,000 news jobs in 2022, the growth pace has slowed, with 2024 expected to see just over half that number.
But the ingredients are in place to sustain the hot temperature of American manufacturing expansion in 2025 and beyond, the company said. According to Savills, that’s because the U.S. manufacturing revival is fueled by $910 billion in federal incentives—including the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS and Science Act, and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act—much of which has not yet been spent. Domestic production is also expected to be boosted by new tariffs, including a planned rise in semiconductor tariffs to 50% in 2025 and an increase in tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100%.
Certain geographical regions will see greater manufacturing growth than others, since just eight states account for 47% of new manufacturing jobs and over 6.3 billion square feet of industrial space, with 197 million more square feet under development. They are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee.
Across the border, Mexico’s manufacturing sector has also seen “revolutionary” growth driven by nearshoring strategies targeting U.S. markets and offering lower-cost labor, with a workforce that is now even cheaper than in China. Over the past four years, that country has launched 27 new plants, each creating over 500 jobs. Unlike the U.S. focus on tech manufacturing, Mexico focuses on traditional sectors such as automative parts, appliances, and consumer goods.
Looking at the future, the U.S. manufacturing sector’s growth outlook remains strong, regardless of the results of November’s presidential election, Savills said. That’s because both candidates favor protectionist trade policies, and since significant change to federal incentives would require a single party to control both the legislative and executive branches. Rather than relying on changes in political leadership, future growth of U.S. manufacturing now hinges on finding affordable, reliable power amid increasing competition between manufacturing sites and data centers, Savills said.
The British logistics robot vendor Dexory this week said it has raised $80 million in venture funding to support an expansion of its artificial intelligence (AI) powered features, grow its global team, and accelerate the deployment of its autonomous robots.
A “significant focus” continues to be on expanding across the U.S. market, where Dexory is live with customers in seven states and last month opened a U.S. headquarters in Nashville. The Series B will also enhance development and production facilities at its UK headquarters, the firm said.
The “series B” funding round was led by DTCP, with participation from Latitude Ventures, Wave-X and Bootstrap Europe, along with existing investors Atomico, Lakestar, Capnamic, and several angels from the logistics industry. With the close of the round, Dexory has now raised $120 million over the past three years.
Dexory says its product, DexoryView, provides real-time visibility across warehouses of any size through its autonomous mobile robots and AI. The rolling bots use sensor and image data and continuous data collection to perform rapid warehouse scans and create digital twins of warehouse spaces, allowing for optimized performance and future scenario simulations.
Originally announced in September, the move will allow Deutsche Bahn to “fully focus on restructuring the rail infrastructure in Germany and providing climate-friendly passenger and freight transport operations in Germany and Europe,” Werner Gatzer, Chairman of the DB Supervisory Board, said in a release.
For its purchase price, DSV gains an organization with around 72,700 employees at over 1,850 locations. The new owner says it plans to investment around one billion euros in coming years to promote additional growth in German operations. Together, DSV and Schenker will have a combined workforce of approximately 147,000 employees in more than 90 countries, earning pro forma revenue of approximately $43.3 billion (based on 2023 numbers), DSV said.
After removing that unit, Deutsche Bahn retains its core business called the “Systemverbund Bahn,” which includes passenger transport activities in Germany, rail freight activities, operational service units, and railroad infrastructure companies. The DB Group, headquartered in Berlin, employs around 340,000 people.
“We have set clear goals to structurally modernize Deutsche Bahn in the areas of infrastructure, operations and profitability and focus on the core business. The proceeds from the sale will significantly reduce DB’s debt and thus make an important contribution to the financial stability of the DB Group. At the same time, DB Schenker will gain a strong strategic owner in DSV,” Deutsche Bahn CEO Richard Lutz said in a release.
Transportation industry veteran Anne Reinke will become president & CEO of trade group the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA) at the end of the year, stepping into the position from her previous post leading third party logistics (3PL) trade group the Transportation Intermediaries Association (TIA), both organizations said today.
Meanwhile, TIA today announced that insider Christopher Burroughs would fill Reinke’s shoes as president & CEO. Burroughs has been with TIA for 13 years, most recently as its vice president of Government Affairs for the past six years, during which time he oversaw all legislative and regulatory efforts before Congress and the federal agencies.
Before her four years leading TIA, Reinke spent two years as Deputy Assistant Secretary with the U.S. Department of Transportation and 16 years with CSX Corporation.