The Russia Briefing website — drawing on research from Dutch banking concern Rabobank — published a nice synopsis of the expected global impact of the current escalation of tension around the Black Sea. There will be a ripple, including shifts:
- From long supply chains to shorter ones
- From free trade to onshoring — as in semiconductors — increasingly tied to the defense sector
- To tighter controls on technology exports
- To more calls for decoupling from Russia and China so U.S. capital does not pay for China's military (as EU capital does via Russian oil and gas)
- To demands for access to and control of key raw materials
Even in the U.S., we will feel impact.