The days when it was easy to gloss over a supply chain fiasco are over. Today when things go horribly wrong, the person in charge can expect to pay the ultimate career price.
John Johnson joined the DC Velocity team in March 2004. A veteran business journalist, John has over a dozen years of experience covering the supply chain field, including time as chief editor of Warehousing Management. In addition, he has covered the venture capital community and previously was a sports reporter covering professional and collegiate sports in the Boston area. John served as senior editor and chief editor of DC Velocity until April 2008.
For years, America's supply chain managers toiled in obscurity. No matter how many millions of dollars they saved or how many days they cut out of the order cycle, they knew they could expect little in the way of acknowledgment from on high.
It certainly wasn't for lack of trying. "We fought for years to get the supply chain noticed in the board room," says Rick Blasgen, senior vice president of integrated logistics at ConAgra Foods. Yet those efforts went largely unrewarded. Most CEOs and board members knew little about what went on in the distribution center or on the loading dock and cared even less.
Not any more. Today it's easy to make out the path worn into the carpet between the CEO's suite and the office that is the supply chain manager's command central. Not only does the CEO know who leads the supply chain team and where to find him or her, but that CEO won't hesitate to seek that person out if supply chain performance starts to stumble. The job security these managers once took for granted is a thing of the past. Today's CEOs and CFOs have no trouble connecting the dots between a supply chain disaster and the financial hit the company takes, and they're holding the supply chain leader accountable.
Which is really just a genteel way of saying that if you screw up, heads will roll. And if that sounds like an empty threat, consider this: When the UK-based retailer MFI Furniture Group traced financial losses suffered last summer to a supply chain glitch, its director of supply chain operations was promptly fired (see below). And just last month, another UK company, grocery retailer Sainsbury, gave its supply chain management team the sack after they botched a $714 million DC automation initiative.
Closer to home, executives at Hewlett-Packard were luckier. When HP announced that its third-quarter earnings had suffered because of order fulfillment problems in its enterprise storage and server division, the company's sales director got the ax. Management in the supply chain sector survived, but they might not be so fortunate next time around. Halloween may have passed, but those in the know say HP Chairman and CEO Carly Fiorina is still wielding her hatchet and won't hesitate to use it should the supply chain falter again.
It's not personal, it's just business
It's hard to tell if supply chain miscues are more common now, or whether the slipups just receive more attention when they do occur. What is clear is that chief executives are no longer willing to simply dismiss a supply chain problem as a temporary blip in their operations.
Even if they were, dismissing the problem is no longer an option. "If the problem is bad enough to spill over into the press, then the company has to demonstrate to the shareholders that it's taking action," says Alan Taliaferro, president and chief executive officer at KOM International, a supply chain consulting firm. Giving the supply chain executive the pink slip "is an acceptable and almost expected way to take action and show your shareholders that you've dealt with the problem."
Some theorize that more is expected from supply chain execs these days. Years ago, a vice president of distribution at a grocery store chain might have started out as a bag boy and worked his way up. If he screwed up, it could be written off as a lack of training and development. But what was forgiveable in a former bag boy is intolerable in a highly compensated executive with an MBA. "Today, the person filling those shoes will be much more of a professional with lots of front-line experience and a considerably higher level of education," says Taliaferro. "With that comes a higher pay scale—and higher expectations."
And make no mistake, the expectations are all about delivering financial results. "More often than not it's the chief financial officer who is now monitoring the [supply chain]," says Patti Satterfield, business development manager with Q4 Logistics, a systems integrator and consulting firm. "The CFO is taking a more hands-on approach than in the past and is much more [visible] now."
The CFO's interest in all things related to the supply chain is no surprise. The financial benefits of a smoothly running supply chain are well documented. According to From Visibility to Action, an annual report on logistics and transportation trends, a well-managed supply chain that provides visibility of products and materials at every stage vastly outperforms its more loosely run counterparts. The report—sponsored by Oracle and produced jointly by Capgemini U.S. LLC and Dr. Karl Manrodt of Georgia Southern—showed that high-performing companies averaged 14.6 inventory turns, 22.1 days' sales worth of inventory and 26.1 average days' sales outstanding compared to 9.8, 38.2 and 39.4, respectively, for their less well-managed counterparts. No wonder the CFO gets hot under the collar when the supply chain team fails to deliver.
Ironically, the profession's unrelenting push for recognition over the years is at least partially responsible for that newfound scrutiny. "The education we have provided as an industry to senior-level executives has allowed them to focus on parts of the supply chain they didn't focus on before," says Blasgen. He sees that as a mixed blessing: "It's great to have the organization understand the supply chain, but you have to deliver because upper management is able to see when the supply chain doesn't perform up to its standards."
When projects go bad
Though you might get a different impression from corporate statements, technology is rarely to blame for supply chain fiascos. The problem is far more likely to be poor planning. According to research firm Gartner Group, almost three-quarters of large supply chain projects crash because of a lack of solid supply chain strategy or problems with underlying processes.
Other times, the problem turns out to be miscommunication between the vendor and the customer. One manufacturer Satterfield's familiar with recently purchased a warehouse management system fully expecting it to arrive ready for integration into its enterprise resource planning (ERP) system. "They were assured the integration would be there and it would be a simple drop in," says Satterfield. "But lo and behold, when they started doing the testing, they discovered the system didn't interface to specific modules. They ended up having to hire someone to write custom interfaces."
Satterfield says that's not uncommon. She reports that she's seen many cases in which a company goes into a project thinking it can handle the job on its own (or with a little support from the vendor) only to run into trouble. If the supply chain executives sound the alarm in time—that is, as soon as they suspect there might be a problem—they can usually salvage the project (and their jobs) by bringing in a third-party systems integrator.
Why don't they just call in a third party to begin with? Satterfield says companies often have misplaced faith that their regular IT staff can handle the job. But competent as their IT people may be, that's a recipe for disaster. "Those people already have a full-time job," says Satterfield. "Adding an implementation on top of their normal work load can [prove to be too much]. Certainly there are technical issues that come up and derail a project, but in our experience, the resources issue is the biggest problem. People just underestimate the amount of time and effort that the implementation will take."
the best laid plans
There was nothing in the early days that hinted of a disaster in the making. MFI, the UK's largest furniture retailer, announced plans to replace its 20-year-old legacy supply chain systems with a fully integrated enterprise resource planning system from SAP. True, the upgrade would cost $100 million, but in five years' time MFI would be running a reliable, state-of-the-art system that would put its competitors to shame.
Still, the company didn't want to rush headlong into anything. The new system would be implemented in phases—starting with financials and indirect procurement, moving on to inventory and scheduling, and finishing off with the human resources and retail components. By converting over to the new software in stages, the company could use the lessons it learned early on to prevent mishaps down the road. What could go wrong?
Unfortunately for MFI, just about everything. Just two years into the second phase, the company last summer was forced to issue a warning of an expected earnings shortfall. The problem? Software implementation problems had led to botched orders.
For an operation of MFI's scale—the company builds, distributes and sells household furniture across 192 stores in the UK—even a small bug could mean big problems. And that appears to be exactly what was responsible. According to one analyst, MFI belatedly discovered that a glitch in the system had resulted in its making only partial deliveries. In fact, the company ended up making three deliveries on average to fill a single order. Transportation expenses soared and productivity plummeted as the pickers' workload tripled. As word got out, sales began to slip.
Shortly after issuing the earnings warning, the company announced that Gordon MacDonald, group categories and manufacturing director with responsibility for the supply chain, and Martin Clifford-King, the chief financial officer, were leaving the company. "I'm not surprised," says Richard Ratner, an analyst at London brokerage firm Seymour Pierce. "MFI issued a profit warning and in this case the chief executive had to take some responsibility for things gone wrong."
Though things may have gone terribly wrong in the past, the company is now confident that things are about to go right. It says its delivery problems will be ironed out by the holiday ordering rush.
Worldwide air cargo rates rose to a 2024 high in November of $2.76 per kilo, despite a slight (-2%) drop in flown tonnages compared with October, according to analysis by WorldACD Market data.
The healthy rate comes as demand and pricing both remain significantly above their already elevated levels last November, the Dutch firm said.
The new figures reflect worldwide air cargo markets that remain relatively strong, including shipments originating in the Asia Pacific, but where good advance planning by air cargo stakeholders looks set to avert a major peak season capacity crunch and very steep rate rises in the final weeks of the year, WorldACD said.
Despite that effective planning, average worldwide rates in November rose by 6% month on month (MoM), based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, taking them to their highest level since January 2023 and 11% higher, year on year (YoY). The biggest MoM increases came from Europe (+10%) and Central & South America (+9%) origins, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data.
But overall global tonnages in November were down -2%, MoM, with the biggest percentage decline coming from Middle East & South Asia (-11%) origins, which have been highly elevated for most of this year. But the -4%, MoM, decrease from Europe origins was responsible for a similar drop in tonnage terms – reflecting reduced passenger belly capacity since the start of aviation’s winter season from 27 October, including cuts in passenger services by European carriers to and from China.
Each of those points could have a stark impact on business operations, the firm said. First, supply chain restrictions will continue to drive up costs, following examples like European tariffs on Chinese autos and the U.S. plan to prevent Chinese software and hardware from entering cars in America.
Second, reputational risk will peak due to increased corporate transparency and due diligence laws, such as Germany’s Supply Chain Due Diligence Act that addresses hotpoint issues like modern slavery, forced labor, human trafficking, and environmental damage. In an age when polarized public opinion is combined with ever-present social media, doing business with a supplier whom a lot of your customers view negatively will be hard to navigate.
And third, advances in data, technology, and supplier risk assessments will enable executives to measure the impact of disruptions more effectively. Those calculations can help organizations determine whether their risk mitigation strategies represent value for money when compared to the potential revenues losses in the event of a supply chain disruption.
“Looking past the holidays, retailers will need to prepare for the typical challenges posed by seasonal slowdown in consumer demand. This year, however, there will be much less of a lull, as U.S. companies are accelerating some purchases that could potentially be impacted by a new wave of tariffs on U.S. imports,” Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, Senior Director – Supplier Risk Management Solutions at Moody’s, said in a release. “Tariffs, sanctions and other supply chain restrictions will likely be top of the 2025 agenda for procurement executives.”
As holiday shoppers blitz through the final weeks of the winter peak shopping season, a survey from the postal and shipping solutions provider Stamps.com shows that 40% of U.S. consumers are unaware of holiday shipping deadlines, leaving them at risk of running into last-minute scrambles, higher shipping costs, and packages arriving late.
The survey also found a generational difference in holiday shipping deadline awareness, with 53% of Baby Boomers unaware of these cut-off dates, compared to just 32% of Millennials. Millennials are also more likely to prioritize guaranteed delivery, with 68% citing it as a key factor when choosing a shipping option this holiday season.
Of those surveyed, 66% have experienced holiday shipping delays, with Gen Z reporting the highest rate of delays at 73%, compared to 49% of Baby Boomers. That statistical spread highlights a conclusion that younger generations are less tolerant of delays and prioritize fast and efficient shipping, researchers said. The data came from a study of 1,000 U.S. consumers conducted in October 2024 to understand their shopping habits and preferences.
As they cope with that tight shipping window, a huge 83% of surveyed consumers are willing to pay extra for faster shipping to avoid the prospect of a late-arriving gift. This trend is especially strong among Gen Z, with 56% willing to pay up, compared to just 27% of Baby Boomers.
“As the holiday season approaches, it’s crucial for consumers to be prepared and aware of shipping deadlines to ensure their gifts arrive on time,” Nick Spitzman, General Manager of Stamps.com, said in a release. ”Our survey highlights the significant portion of consumers who are unaware of these deadlines, particularly older generations. It’s essential for retailers and shipping carriers to provide clear and timely information about shipping deadlines to help consumers avoid last-minute stress and disappointment.”
For best results, Stamps.com advises consumers to begin holiday shopping early and familiarize themselves with shipping deadlines across carriers. That is especially true with Thanksgiving falling later this year, meaning the holiday season is shorter and planning ahead is even more essential.
According to Stamps.com, key shipping deadlines include:
December 13, 2024: Last day for FedEx Ground Economy
December 18, 2024: Last day for USPS Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail
December 19, 2024: Last day for UPS 3 Day Select and USPS Priority Mail
December 20, 2024: Last day for UPS 2nd Day Air
December 21, 2024: Last day for USPS Priority Mail Express
Measured over the entire year of 2024, retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales will be returned. But that total figure includes a spike of returns during the holidays; a separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate.
Despite the cost of handling that massive reverse logistics task, retailers grin and bear it because product returns are so tightly integrated with brand loyalty, offering companies an additional touchpoint to provide a positive interaction with their customers, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. According to NRF’s research, 76% of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again. And 84% of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
So in response to consumer demand, retailers continue to enhance the return experience for customers. More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months. In addition, improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
However, retailers also must balance meeting consumer demand for seamless returns against rising costs. Fraudulent and abusive returns practices create both logistical and financial challenges for retailers. A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business. In terms of abuse, bracketing – purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some – has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration – they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said in a release. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
The research came from two complementary surveys conducted this fall, allowing NRF and Happy Returns to compare perspectives from both sides. They included one that gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, and another from 249 e-commerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers.
The “series A” round was led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Y Combinator and strategic industry investors, including RyderVentures. It follows an earlier, previously undisclosed, pre-seed round raised 1.5 years ago, that was backed by Array Ventures and other angel investors.
“Our mission is to redefine the economics of the freight industry by harnessing the power of agentic AI,ˮ Pablo Palafox, HappyRobotʼs co-founder and CEO, said in a release. “This funding will enable us to accelerate product development, expand and support our customer base, and ultimately transform how logistics businesses operate.ˮ
According to the firm, its conversational AI platform uses agentic AI—a term for systems that can autonomously make decisions and take actions to achieve specific goals—to simplify logistics operations. HappyRobot says its tech can automate tasks like inbound and outbound calls, carrier negotiations, and data capture, thus enabling brokers to enhance efficiency and capacity, improve margins, and free up human agents to focus on higher-value activities.
“Today, the logistics industry underpinning our global economy is stretched,” Anish Acharya, general partner at a16z, said. “As a key part of the ecosystem, even small to midsize freight brokers can make and receive hundreds, if not thousands, of calls per day – and hiring for this job is increasingly difficult. By providing customers with autonomous decision making, HappyRobotʼs agentic AI platform helps these brokers operate more reliably and efficiently.ˮ