While other retailers sweated out last fall's port logjam, Limited Brands sailed through largely unscathed. The secret? Detailed contingency planning with plenty of options.
Paul Marshall is the director of inbound logistics for Limited Brands Logistics Services, which provides logistics service and support to the 3,760 U.S. specialty stores operated by Limited Brands. The company's retail chains include Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, Express, Limited Stores, White Barn Candle Co. and Henri Bendel.
(This is part two of a three-part series. Read parts one and three.)
Editor's note: By all rights, Limited Brands should have been among the companies hit hardest by last year's port logjam on the West Coast. The company, parent of such brands as Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, Express, Limited Stores and Henri Bendel, imports thousands of containers annually from factories around the world and has traditionally relied heavily on the Southern California ports, bringing 75 percent of its containers through these gateways as recently as the spring of 2004.
But as the containerships began to pile up and other retailers began panicking at the prospect of empty store shelves, Limited Brands sailed through the season relatively unscathed. Instead of waiting weeks or months for its merchandise, the company experienced delays of only two days on average from the merchandise's point of origin (typically in Asia) to its seven DCs in Columbus, Ohio.
At the same time, the company—or to be precise, its logistics group, Limited Brands Logistics Services—was doing the seemingly impossible on another front. In the midst of the worst trucking environment in decades, it not only managed to find trucks to move its goods, but it did so while maintaining service levels. In fact, the company, which moves approximately 40,000 domestic truckloads each year, actually recorded improvements in inbound performance (though outbound service suffered slightly).
The question that immediately comes to mind is how did they do that? To find out, we turned to Paul Marshall, director of inbound logistics for Limited Brands Logistics Services. What follows is his first-hand account of how Limited Brands reacted to the developing crisis and some of the key lessons learned.
IN THE SPRING OF 2004, WE BEGAN TO SEE DETERIORATION IN THE LEVEL OF SERVICE ON the U.S. West Coast that worsened throughout the year. That was something we couldn't ignore: At the time, we were shipping approximately 75 percent of our containers through ports in the Pacific Southwest, which, with the exception of the contract dispute with the International Longshore and Warehouse Union in 2002, had always proved reliable.
It quickly became clear to us that unlike the contract dispute, this wouldn't be a temporary setback. To begin with, it wasn't a matter of solving a single problem like a labor disagreement. Instead, a constellation of factors—poor forecasting and labor planning, an unforeseen surge in container volume, labor and equipment issues among the rails and truckers that served the ports, and an imbalance in work flow—were contributing to the lengthy delays.
What was also apparent was that solving a problem of this magnitude would take time. Although the industry is responding with larger vessels, extended hours, more labor and more port and rail equipment, those are stop-gap measures. In the long term, more infrastructure will be needed—particularly rail yards and track— and that will require significant investment and time. And although we were working (and continue to work) with other big importers through industry associations and coalitions to develop long-term solutions to congestion and related challenges, we knew we needed to take action right away. Our team put together a network plan with plenty of contingency options. What follows are some of the key points from that plan:
Keep everyone informed. There's no substitute for timely communication. At the first sign of trouble, we alerted our customers so they could adjust their performance expectations and plan their inventory appropriately. Then, so we could continue to stay on top of the situation, we began gathering intelligence about our supply chain partners and industry conditions from as many sources as possible, including carriers, railroad and port officials, and other shippers.
Remain agile. After evaluating this information, we quickly decided to make some adjustments. In March 2004, we were shipping more than 75 percent of our freight to terminals in Los Angeles and Long Beach. By July 2004, we had shifted our flow so that the majority of our freight was moving through Seattle and Tacoma. We wanted to maintain a presence in Southern California, however, so we kept that option open and stressed the need for agility to our carriers. Our carriers responded and did a great job.
Consolidate where possible. We decided to single source our global consolidation to improve flexibility and communication. This has enabled us to communicate quickly and address potential problems immediately—for example, shifting flows between ports to avoid congestion.
Keep our options open. Maintaining maximum flexibility is vital in a crisis. We made it a point to work with carriers that not only offer services to a variety of ports but also have strong intermodal relationships. Specifically, we sought out carriers that would be able to change from intermodal to truck options quickly; carriers with strong dray operations; and carriers with the ability to use terminals with on-dock rail options. We were particularly interested in that on-dock rail service option because it gave us flexibility to have the carrier build a train immediately on its dock or dray it to a rail container yard. This flexibility to switch from one to the other proved invaluable when various problems arose with each of these options throughout the year.
Avoid getting locked into one mode. Though we rely primarily on rail service to the Midwest, we've learned to keep the
trucking option open in case of rail or other delays. During the past year, we've found ourselves forced to switch to trucks at times, either because of a time crunch or to avoid congestion delays. In some cases, we trucked the containers to their destination; in others, we cross-docked containers and shipments into over-the-road trailers for better utilization.
Communicate with carriers weekly. We found it invaluable to establish weekly conference calls with our carriers to prioritize incoming shipments, hash out issues and create action plans for improvement or network adjustments. Measuring each segment of the service helps you drill down to specific issues and actions.
So what lies ahead? Though it appears that West Coast ports have largely reverted to their previous service levels, we anticipate similar challenges this year as peak season approaches. Our response will be very much the same. In the end, we believe that giving ourselves as many options as possible, gathering up-to-date information on congestion hotspots and being agile will enable us to succeed.
Easing the truck capacity crunch
As so often happens, while we were dealing with crises in our global supply chain, we were experiencing trouble on the home front too. As the port and intermodal congestion escalated, Limited Brands, like retailers everywhere, found itself dealing with a shortage of truck capacity as well. At first glance, that might appear to be less troubling to a company known for its heavy import volumes, but that's not the case at all. Reliable trucking service is crucial to keeping our store shelves (and garment racks) stocked. We move about 40,000 truckloads per year of both materials sourced domestically moving to DCs and shipments moving from our DCs to stores. We deliver to 60 percent of our store base in one day and to all stores within three days, which means even a few days' delay could be disastrous.
We first began to see deterioration in truckload services in late 2003 as factors like a shortage of drivers, skyrocketing fuel and insurance costs, rail capacity conconstraints, and government regulations began to take their toll on trucking operations. It quickly became clear to us that this was more than a simple transportation problem; if we wanted to assure ourselves of truck capacity when we needed it—and at a reasonable cost—we would need to examine the process from end to end.
Our team looked at operations at our own DCs, at our suppliers' loading docks and at the carriers themselves to come up with a multifaceted trucking plan. What follows are some of the key objectives from that plan:
Work out the bugs in our forecasting (and planning). Like many shippers, we were not good at forecasting our business, which hampered our ability to react quickly to unforeseen spikes in demand. To fix that problem, we began working with our key domestic suppliers to create specific operating plans and improve forecasting. We found that our suppliers could help us predict spikes and pre-plan for high volume.
Make our business more attractive to carriers. Again like many shippers, we found there were many things we could do to help make carriers' operations more efficient, and thus make our business more attractive to them. To that end, we created drop-and-hook operations, urged suppliers to extend their hours of operation, and requested feedback on how we could improve our operating procedures.
Make sure trucking capacity is fully utilized. Together with our suppliers, we launched a truckload cube utilization plan to increase the weight per truck and reduce the number of trucks required. Through that simple action, we reduced total landed costs from specific suppliers even though truckload rates were rising.
Crack down on non-performing carriers. If you're paying premium prices, you should get premium service. But you can't just assume you're getting top-quality service. In tracking our carriers' performance, we discovered that for various reasons—weather, hours-of-service regulations, overbooking, driver or dispatch errors—our carriers were failing to pick up approximately 1 to 2 percent of the time during the busy season. Though 2 percent may not sound like a lot, this failure rate is unacceptable to a customer with time-sensitive shipments. We aggressively moved business from under-performing carriers to those that could get the job done. Adding carriers gave us greater capacity and improved our performance, but it also had a downside: we found we needed more internal resources to manage them. We ended up adding a second-shift associate to monitor loads en route throughout the evening.
Use creativity to find backhauls. We have a small dedicated fleet that moves merchandise to and from our Columbus, Ohio, DCs. Though service is excellent with this operation, we have an imbalance of inbound and outbound freight in Columbus, making expansion impractical. We do, however, have regional volume: components and raw materials that have to be moved from factory to factory or finished goods into regional cross-dock operations. We decided it would be worth our while to expand our contracted dedicated operation into these areas of high volume. Our assumption proved correct. Not only did costs decrease, but performance improved because the drivers found themselves going to the same suppliers daily.
Put contingency plans in place. Admittedly, it's extra work, but we found that the time we devoted to drawing up contingency plans was time well spent. As it turned out, there were several occasions throughout the year when our carriers notified us that they would likely miss a scheduled pickup or fail to deliver a shipment as promised. In many cases, we were able to recover the loads by resorting to fallback plans we had created in each of our three key regions in the United States.
Team up with a partner in another industry. Many industries experience seasonal swings in demand, but their peak periods don't necessarily coincide. One company's peak shipping season may be someone else's doldrums. We decided to see if we could partner with a shipper with a different peak season to determine if we could use its excess capacity when its volume was low and ours was peaking. We found another shipper, a large manufacturer in an entirely different industry, that used the same dedicated contract service company we did. We approached its logistics people and worked out a successful collaborative relationship. As a result, the other shipper was able to keep its drivers busy during its slow seasons and cover fixed expenses. We, in turn, were able to take advantage of additional capacity and obtained access to a pool of drivers that outperformed our common carriers (the service proved to be 5 percent better than common carriage).
As hard as we've worked to remediate the trucking problems, we still have a ways to go. To date, our efforts have met with mixed results. We actually improved on our inbound trucking performance thanks to our contingency planning and our commitment to monitoring loads on a daily basis. Unfortunately, however, our outbound performance deteriorated slightly from the prior year.
Because we expect the same challenges this fall, we're now tweaking our plans for the outbound operation. Among the options we're weighing are adding capacity in the form of more carriers and creating contingency plans for the outbound operation. There are no guarantees, of course, but we hope that these refinements will allow us to post positive results once again.
As holiday shoppers blitz through the final weeks of the winter peak shopping season, a survey from the postal and shipping solutions provider Stamps.com shows that 40% of U.S. consumers are unaware of holiday shipping deadlines, leaving them at risk of running into last-minute scrambles, higher shipping costs, and packages arriving late.
The survey also found a generational difference in holiday shipping deadline awareness, with 53% of Baby Boomers unaware of these cut-off dates, compared to just 32% of Millennials. Millennials are also more likely to prioritize guaranteed delivery, with 68% citing it as a key factor when choosing a shipping option this holiday season.
Of those surveyed, 66% have experienced holiday shipping delays, with Gen Z reporting the highest rate of delays at 73%, compared to 49% of Baby Boomers. That statistical spread highlights a conclusion that younger generations are less tolerant of delays and prioritize fast and efficient shipping, researchers said. The data came from a study of 1,000 U.S. consumers conducted in October 2024 to understand their shopping habits and preferences.
As they cope with that tight shipping window, a huge 83% of surveyed consumers are willing to pay extra for faster shipping to avoid the prospect of a late-arriving gift. This trend is especially strong among Gen Z, with 56% willing to pay up, compared to just 27% of Baby Boomers.
“As the holiday season approaches, it’s crucial for consumers to be prepared and aware of shipping deadlines to ensure their gifts arrive on time,” Nick Spitzman, General Manager of Stamps.com, said in a release. ”Our survey highlights the significant portion of consumers who are unaware of these deadlines, particularly older generations. It’s essential for retailers and shipping carriers to provide clear and timely information about shipping deadlines to help consumers avoid last-minute stress and disappointment.”
For best results, Stamps.com advises consumers to begin holiday shopping early and familiarize themselves with shipping deadlines across carriers. That is especially true with Thanksgiving falling later this year, meaning the holiday season is shorter and planning ahead is even more essential.
According to Stamps.com, key shipping deadlines include:
December 13, 2024: Last day for FedEx Ground Economy
December 18, 2024: Last day for USPS Ground Advantage and First-Class Mail
December 19, 2024: Last day for UPS 3 Day Select and USPS Priority Mail
December 20, 2024: Last day for UPS 2nd Day Air
December 21, 2024: Last day for USPS Priority Mail Express
Measured over the entire year of 2024, retailers estimate that 16.9% of their annual sales will be returned. But that total figure includes a spike of returns during the holidays; a separate NRF study found that for the 2024 winter holidays, retailers expect their return rate to be 17% higher, on average, than their annual return rate.
Despite the cost of handling that massive reverse logistics task, retailers grin and bear it because product returns are so tightly integrated with brand loyalty, offering companies an additional touchpoint to provide a positive interaction with their customers, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a release. According to NRF’s research, 76% of consumers consider free returns a key factor in deciding where to shop, and 67% say a negative return experience would discourage them from shopping with a retailer again. And 84% of consumers report being more likely to shop with a retailer that offers no box/no label returns and immediate refunds.
So in response to consumer demand, retailers continue to enhance the return experience for customers. More than two-thirds of retailers surveyed (68%) say they are prioritizing upgrading their returns capabilities within the next six months. In addition, improving the returns experience and reducing the return rate are viewed as two of the most important elements for businesses in achieving their 2025 goals.
However, retailers also must balance meeting consumer demand for seamless returns against rising costs. Fraudulent and abusive returns practices create both logistical and financial challenges for retailers. A majority (93%) of retailers said retail fraud and other exploitive behavior is a significant issue for their business. In terms of abuse, bracketing – purchasing multiple items with the intent to return some – has seen growth among younger consumers, with 51% of Gen Z consumers indicating they engage in this practice.
“Return policies are no longer just a post-purchase consideration – they’re shaping how younger generations shop from the start,” David Sobie, co-founder and CEO of Happy Returns, said in a release. “With behaviors like bracketing and rising return rates putting strain on traditional systems, retailers need to rethink reverse logistics. Solutions like no box/no label returns with item verification enable immediate refunds, meeting customer expectations for convenience while increasing accuracy, reducing fraud and helping to protect profitability in a competitive market.”
The research came from two complementary surveys conducted this fall, allowing NRF and Happy Returns to compare perspectives from both sides. They included one that gathered responses from 2,007 consumers who had returned at least one online purchase within the past year, and another from 249 e-commerce and finance professionals from large U.S. retailers.
The “series A” round was led by Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), with participation from Y Combinator and strategic industry investors, including RyderVentures. It follows an earlier, previously undisclosed, pre-seed round raised 1.5 years ago, that was backed by Array Ventures and other angel investors.
“Our mission is to redefine the economics of the freight industry by harnessing the power of agentic AI,ˮ Pablo Palafox, HappyRobotʼs co-founder and CEO, said in a release. “This funding will enable us to accelerate product development, expand and support our customer base, and ultimately transform how logistics businesses operate.ˮ
According to the firm, its conversational AI platform uses agentic AI—a term for systems that can autonomously make decisions and take actions to achieve specific goals—to simplify logistics operations. HappyRobot says its tech can automate tasks like inbound and outbound calls, carrier negotiations, and data capture, thus enabling brokers to enhance efficiency and capacity, improve margins, and free up human agents to focus on higher-value activities.
“Today, the logistics industry underpinning our global economy is stretched,” Anish Acharya, general partner at a16z, said. “As a key part of the ecosystem, even small to midsize freight brokers can make and receive hundreds, if not thousands, of calls per day – and hiring for this job is increasingly difficult. By providing customers with autonomous decision making, HappyRobotʼs agentic AI platform helps these brokers operate more reliably and efficiently.ˮ
RJW Logistics Group, a logistics solutions provider (LSP) for consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands, has received a “strategic investment” from Boston-based private equity firm Berkshire partners, and now plans to drive future innovations and expand its geographic reach, the Woodridge, Illinois-based company said Tuesday.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the company said that CEO Kevin Williamson and other members of RJW management will continue to be “significant investors” in the company, while private equity firm Mason Wells, which invested in RJW in 2019, will maintain a minority investment position.
RJW is an asset-based transportation, logistics, and warehousing provider, operating more than 7.3 million square feet of consolidation warehouse space in the transportation hubs of Chicago and Dallas and employing 1,900 people. RJW says it partners with over 850 CPG brands and delivers to more than 180 retailers nationwide. According to the company, its retail logistics solutions save cost, improve visibility, and achieve industry-leading On-Time, In-Full (OTIF) performance. Those improvements drive increased in-stock rates and sales, benefiting both CPG brands and their retailer partners, the firm says.
"After several years of mitigating inflation, disruption, supply shocks, conflicts, and uncertainty, we are currently in a relative period of calm," John Paitek, vice president, GEP, said in a release. "But it is very much the calm before the coming storm. This report provides procurement and supply chain leaders with a prescriptive guide to weathering the gale force headwinds of protectionism, tariffs, trade wars, regulatory pressures, uncertainty, and the AI revolution that we will face in 2025."
A report from the company released today offers predictions and strategies for the upcoming year, organized into six major predictions in GEP’s “Outlook 2025: Procurement & Supply Chain” report.
Advanced AI agents will play a key role in demand forecasting, risk monitoring, and supply chain optimization, shifting procurement's mandate from tactical to strategic. Companies should invest in the technology now to to streamline processes and enhance decision-making.
Expanded value metrics will drive decisions, as success will be measured by resilience, sustainability, and compliance… not just cost efficiency. Companies should communicate value beyond cost savings to stakeholders, and develop new KPIs.
Increasing regulatory demands will necessitate heightened supply chain transparency and accountability. So companies should strengthen supplier audits, adopt ESG tracking tools, and integrate compliance into strategic procurement decisions.
Widening tariffs and trade restrictions will force companies to reassess total cost of ownership (TCO) metrics to include geopolitical and environmental risks, as nearshoring and friendshoring attempt to balance resilience with cost.
Rising energy costs and regulatory demands will accelerate the shift to sustainable operations, pushing companies to invest in renewable energy and redesign supply chains to align with ESG commitments.
New tariffs could drive prices higher, just as inflation has come under control and interest rates are returning to near-zero levels. That means companies must continue to secure cost savings as their primary responsibility.