The Logistics Matters podcast: Bryan Palma on what retailers can expect this peak season | Season 2 Episode 41
Retailers are in for an uncertain holiday season as inventories are out of whack and demand is difficult to satisfy. What should retailers and consumers expect from this year's peak season? Plus: The unicorns of supply chain; news from America's ports.
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Transcript to come
About this week's guest
Bryan Palma is senior product marketing manager at Kinaxis. He has over a decade of experience across retail and the consumer packaged goods and consumer electronics industries. He is passionate about communicating the value of new technologies to enterprises looking to be market leaders in their industry. As senior manager of industry and solutions marketing at Kinaxis, Palma leads marketing efforts focused on retail and CPG for Kinaxis' demand planning and artificial intelligence/machine learning products.
However, that trend is counterbalanced by economic uncertainty driven by geopolitics, which is prompting many companies to diversity their supply chains, Dun & Bradstreet said in its “Q4 2024 Global Business Optimism Insights” report, which was based on research conducted during the third quarter.
“While overall global business optimism has increased and inflation has abated, it’s important to recognize that geopolitics contribute to economic uncertainty,” Neeraj Sahai, president of Dun & Bradstreet International, said in a release. “Industry-specific regulatory risks and more stringent data requirements have emerged as the top concerns among a third of respondents. To mitigate these risks, businesses are considering diversifying their supply chains and markets to manage regulatory risk.”
According to the report, nearly four in five businesses are expressing increased optimism in domestic and export orders, capital expenditures, and financial risk due to a combination of easing financial pressures, shifts in monetary policies, robust regulatory frameworks, and higher participation in sustainability initiatives.
U.S. businesses recorded a nearly 9% rise in optimism, aided by falling inflation and expectations of further rate cuts. Similarly, business optimism in the U.K. and Spain showed notable recoveries as their respective central banks initiated monetary easing, rising by 13% and 9%, respectively. Emerging economies, such as Argentina and India, saw jumps in optimism levels due to declining inflation and increased domestic demand respectively.
"Businesses are increasingly confident as borrowing costs decline, boosting optimism for higher sales, stronger exports, and reduced financial risks," Arun Singh, Global Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet, said. "This confidence is driving capital investments, with easing supply chain pressures supporting growth in the year's final quarter."
The firms’ “GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index” tracks demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses.
The rise in underutilized vendor capacity was driven by a deterioration in global demand. Factory purchasing activity was at its weakest in the year-to-date, with procurement trends in all major continents worsening in September and signaling gloomier prospects for economies heading into Q4, the report said.
According to the report, the slowing economy was seen across the major regions:
North America factory purchasing activity deteriorates more quickly in September, with demand at its weakest year-to-date, signaling a quickly slowing U.S. economy
Factory procurement activity in China fell for a third straight month, and devastation from Typhoon Yagi hit vendors feeding Southeast Asian markets like Vietnam
Europe's industrial recession deepens, leading to an even larger increase in supplier spare capacity
"September is the fourth straight month of declining demand and the third month running that the world's supply chains have spare capacity, as manufacturing becomes an increasing drag on the major economies," Jagadish Turimella, president of GEP, said in a release. "With the potential of a widening war in the Middle East impacting oil, and the possibility of more tariffs and trade barriers in the new year, manufacturers should prioritize agility and resilience in their procurement and supply chains."
The third-party logistics service provider (3PL) Total Distribution Inc. (TDI) is continuing to grow through acquisitions, announcing today that it has bought REO Processing & REO Logistics.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but REO Processing & REO Logistics is headquartered in West Virginia with 10 facilities across West Virginia in Parkersburg, Vienna, Huntington, Kenova, and Nitro as well as in Atlanta, GA.
Headquartered in Canton, Ohio, TDI is a wholly owned subsidiary of Peoples Services Inc. (PSI). The combined TDI and PSI businesses operate over 12 million square feet of contract and public warehouse space located in 65 facilities in eight states including Michigan, Ohio, West Virginia, New Jersey, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Florida.
As an asset-based 3PL, the PSI network offers a range of specialized material handling and storage services including many value-added activities such as drumming, milling, tolling, packaging, kitting, inventory management, transloading, cross docking, transportation, and brokerage services.
This latest move follows a series of other acquisitions, as TDI bought D+S Distribution, Inc. and Integrated Logistics Services Inc. in May, and Swafford Trucking, Inc., Swafford Warehousing, Inc., and Swafford Transportation, Inc. in February. The company also bought Presidential Express Trucking, Inc. and Presidential Express Warehousing & Distribution, Inc. in 2023.
The freight equipment original equipment manufacturer (OEM) Wabash will use a federal grant to launch a project with the University of Delaware that will save electricity by incorporating lightweight solar panels into refrigerated trailers and truck bodies, the Indiana company said today.
The three-year project, set to begin next year in partnership with the University of Delaware’s Center for Composite Materials, is intended to play a pivotal role in making zero-emission mid-mile transportation a commercially viable option, Wabash said.
Those materials are important because batteries powering heavy trucks can weigh between 5,000 to 10,000 pounds, often limiting the payload capacity and drawing significant energy from the electrical grid when charging, the partners said.
“This project has the potential to revolutionize refrigerated transport by reducing reliance on the electrical grid and minimizing overall emissions,” Michael Bodey, director of technology discovery and innovation at Wabash, said in a release. “While many of today’s zero-emission products focus on tailpipe emissions, they still draw power from energy grids, which often rely on non-renewable sources. Our goal is to offer a truly green solution—a well-to-wheel approach—that accounts for the full life cycle of energy consumption, from production to usage.”
For example, millions of residents and workers in the Tampa region have now left their homes and jobs, heeding increasingly dire evacuation warnings from state officials. They’re fleeing the estimated 10 to 20 feet of storm surge that is forecast to swamp the area, due to Hurricane Milton’s status as the strongest hurricane in the Gulf since Rita in 2005, the fifth-strongest Atlantic hurricane based on pressure, and the sixth-strongest Atlantic hurricane based on its peak winds, according to market data provider Industrial Info Resources.
Between that mass migration and the storm’s effect on buildings and infrastructure, supply chain impacts could hit the energy logistics and agriculture sectors particularly hard, according to a report from Everstream Analytics.
The Tampa Bay metro area is the most vulnerable area, with the potential for storm surge to halt port operations, roads, rails, air travel, and business operations – possibly for an extended period of time. In contrast to those “severe to potentially catastrophic” effects, key supply chain hubs outside of the core zone of impact—including the Miami metro area along with Jacksonville, FL and Savannah, GA—could also be impacted but to a more moderate level, such as slowdowns in port operations and air cargo, Everstream Analytics’ Chief Meteorologist Jon Davis said in a report.
Although it was recently downgraded from a Category 5 to Category 4 storm, Milton is anticipated to have major disruptions for transportation, in large part because it will strike an “already fragile supply chain environment” that is still reeling from the fury of Hurricane Helene less than two weeks ago and the ILA port strike that ended just five days ago and crippled ports along the East and Gulf Coasts, a report from Project44 said.
The storm will also affect supply chain operations at sea, since approximately 74 container vessels are located near the storm and may experience delays as they await safe entry into major ports. Vessels already at the ports may face delays departing as they wait for storm conditions to clear, Project44 said.
On land, Florida will likely also face impacts in the Last Mile delivery industry as roads become difficult to navigate and workers evacuate for safety.
Likewise, freight rail networks are also shifting engines, cars, and shipments out of the path of the storm as the industry continues “adapting to a world shaped by climate change,” the Association of American Railroads (AAR) said. Before floods arrive, railroads may relocate locomotives, elevate track infrastructure, and remove sensitive electronic equipment such as sensors, signals and switches. However, forceful water can move a bridge from its support beams or destabilize it by unearthing the supporting soil, so in certain conditions, railroads may park rail cars full of heavy materials — like rocks and ballast — on a bridge before a flood to weigh it down, AAR said.