Skip to content
Search AI Powered

Latest Stories

Black Friday retail spending could take a hit from covid conditions, Deloitte says

But overall spending through November and December still on track to beat last year’s totals, NRF forecasts.

shoppers in mall

With consumers concerned about visiting crowded brick and mortar stores during a resurgent pandemic, in-store spending on Black Friday this year is expected to fall slightly as online shopping exceeds in-person plans for the first time ever, a survey from consulting firm Deloitte shows.

While Black Friday has long been a social event for many people who browse stores together with friends and family in a search for holiday deals, that concept will likely be put on hold this year, since many states have announced social distancing mandates in place to fight a “second wave” of dangerous Covid-19 infections, the New York-based firm said in its "2020 Deloitte pre-Thanksgiving pulse survey."


Instead, 58% of respondents in the poll said they plan to shop online that day, eclipsing the 41% who say they plan to visit stores in person on Black Friday. That marks a role reversal from last year, when in-person shopping topped online by a margin of 61% to 51%.

Store revenues are expected to take a hit from that conversion, with consumers saying their expected shopping budget for the period for the Thanksgiving period stretching from Thursday to Monday would be $401, down 3.3% from last year.

The statistics came from a poll of 1,200 adults nationwide, conducted online by an independent research company between October 29 and November 2. Those results reinforce another recent study by Deloitte predicting that online shopping growth will intensify through the end of 2020, supported by “contactless” experiences and free shipping and returns.

Despite the potential impact on Black Friday patterns, the National Retail Federation (NRF) today forecast that holiday sales during November and December will still increase between 3.6% and 5.2% over 2019 to a total between $755.3 billion and $766.7 billion. The numbers, which exclude automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants, compare with a 4% increase last year and an average holiday sales increase of 3.5% over the past five years.

“Given the pandemic, there is uncertainty about consumers’ willingness to spend, but with the economy improving most have the ability to spend,” NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said in a release. “Consumers have experienced a difficult year but will likely spend more than anyone would have expected just a few months ago. After all they’ve been through, we think there’s going to be a psychological factor that they owe it to themselves and their families to have a better-than-normal holiday. There are risks to the economy if the virus continues to spread, but as long as consumers remain confident and upbeat, they will spend for the holiday season.”

One factor supporting that continued spending will be retailers’ efforts to adjust to the changing conditions, Deloitte said. Many retailers saw the shift coming, and have already adjusted their selling strategy for the peak season, launching promotions and advertising earlier in the year in an effort to “jump start" holiday shopping.

For example, retailers have added new promotions during the third week of October, around Amazon’s Prime Day. And Deloitte’s InSightIQ data found these new promotions were effective in attracting shoppers, boosting sales during the week by 6% over last year. In addition, many retailers began advertising Black Friday promotions in the very beginning of November to give customers plenty of time to adjust to a different holiday shopping environment., Deloitte said.

Consumers in the Deloitte poll said they wanted better deals and lower prices, including more ads (47%), as well as increased Covid-19 safety precautions, including crowd control (23%). Those options were far more popular in the survey than typical retail approaches such as: product availability/avoid stock-outs (13%), convenience-centric planning, including assistance, checkout, and timings (10%), and free or fast delivery and return options (4%).

In other results, the survey found that 74% of respondents plan to shop online during the Thanksgiving period to avoid crowds (versus 62% last year), 57% plan to avoid in-store shopping during the Thanksgiving period to avoid crowds (versus 42% last year), and 57% said they were anxious about shopping in-store during the holiday season due to Covid-19 (versus 51% in September).

The Latest

Artificial Intelligence

AI: Is it the real deal?

More Stories

Logistics economy picked up speed in January

Logistics Managers' Index

Logistics economy picked up speed in January

Economic activity in the logistics industry expanded in January, growing at its fastest clip in more than two years, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) report, released this week.

The LMI jumped nearly five points from December to a reading of 62, reflecting continued steady growth in the U.S. economy along with faster-than-expected inventory growth across the sector as retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers attempted to manage the uncertainty of tariffs and a changing regulatory environment. The January reading represented the fastest rate of expansion since June 2022, the LMI researchers said.

Keep ReadingShow less

Featured

Disrupting the furniture supply chain: An interview with Jay Rogers

Disrupting the furniture supply chain: An interview with Jay Rogers

As commodities go, furniture presents its share of manufacturing and distribution challenges. For one thing, it's bulky. Second, its main components—wood and cloth—are easily damaged in transit. Third, much of it is manufactured overseas, making for some very long supply chains with all the associated risks. And finally, completed pieces can sit on the showroom floor for weeks or months, tying up inventory dollars and valuable retail space.

In other words, the furniture market is ripe for disruption. And John "Jay" Rogers wants to be the catalyst. In 2022, he cofounded a company that takes a whole new approach to furniture manufacturing—one that leverages the power of 3D printing and robotics. Rogers serves as CEO of that company, Haddy, which essentially aims to transform how furniture—and all elements of the "built environment"—are designed, manufactured, distributed, and, ultimately, recycled.

Keep ReadingShow less
chart of GenAI effect on workforce

Gartner: GenAI tools create anxiety among employees

Generative AI (GenAI) is being deployed by 72% of supply chain organizations, but most are experiencing just middling results for productivity and ROI, according to a survey by Gartner, Inc.

That’s because productivity gains from the use of GenAI for individual, desk-based workers are not translating to greater team-level productivity. Additionally, the deployment of GenAI tools is increasing anxiety among many employees, providing a dampening effect on their productivity, Gartner found.

Keep ReadingShow less
warehouse worker driving forklift between racks

German 3PL Arvato acquires two U.S. logistics firms

The German third party logistics provider (3PL) Arvato this week acquired the U.S.-headquartered companies Carbel LLC and United Customs Services, saying the move would grow its client base, particularly in the fashion, beauty, and lifestyle segments.

According to Arvato, it made the move in order to better serve the U.S. e-commerce sector, which has experienced high growth rates in recent years and is expected to grow year-on-year by 5% within the next five years.

Keep ReadingShow less
photo collage of warehouse tech

Supply chain pros are wary of inflation and labor woes

The top worries that supply chain leaders hope to address with new innovations this year include inflationary concerns (68%) and labor shortages (50%), according to a survey on innovation from the third-party logistics provider (3PL) Kenco.

And many of them will have a budget to do it, since 51% of supply chain professionals with existing innovation budgets saw an increase earmarked for 2025, suggesting an even greater emphasis on investing in new technologies to meet rising demand, Kenco said in its “2025 Supply Chain Innovation” survey.

Keep ReadingShow less