Mark Solomon joined DC VELOCITY as senior editor in August 2008, and was promoted to his current position on January 1, 2015. He has spent more than 30 years in the transportation, logistics and supply chain management fields as a journalist and public relations professional. From 1989 to 1994, he worked in Washington as a reporter for the Journal of Commerce, covering the aviation and trucking industries, the Department of Transportation, Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to that, he worked for Traffic World for seven years in a similar role. From 1994 to 2008, Mr. Solomon ran Media-Based Solutions, a public relations firm based in Atlanta. He graduated in 1978 with a B.A. in journalism from The American University in Washington, D.C.
The business of diesel fuel surcharges has grown increasingly complex over their 43-year history and seems to have moved further away than ever from their original purpose, which was to help motor carriers recoup soaring fuel costs triggered by the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo.
Shippers who get hit with the passed-on costs are sympathetic to the carriers' need to manage a cost whose fluctuations are beyond their control. At the same time, they believe the surcharge mechanism has gone from being a clean pass-through of fuel costs to an arbitrage designed to enhance a carrier's revenue and profit. "There are a lot of games that can be played with fuel," said Terri Reid, director of transportation, international and retail logistics, for Caleres, a St. Louis-based footwear company, and a big truck user.
Because surcharges are part of shipper-carrier contracts and are not regulated, the potential for free-market double-dealing is always present. For example, the surcharge formula (more on that below) is based in part on a fleet's fuel efficiency, and many modern-day fleets boast the most efficient trucks in the industry's history. Yet surcharges are based on a lower miles-per-gallon (mpg) threshold that becomes detrimental to the shipper when calculating fuel costs, according to critics.
Large truckers buying fuel in bulk will negotiate huge discounts and rebates from truckstop operators, but then will pocket the difference between their wholesale costs and the surcharge revenue based on a government-published weekly index that prices fuel at the retail level, critics contend.
Some carriers bake surcharges into their base rates, a step that eliminates a shipper's ability to see the charges for a key element of a trucker's pass-through costs. A freight broker working in the spot, or non-contract, arena, which accounts for 25 to 30 percent of the total truckload market, incorporates a fuel surcharge into the total price it offers its shipper customers. As a result, a shipper using a broker doesn't know the impact of fuel on its overall cost.
Larry Menaker, a Chicago-based consultant who has been around the business for decades, said that surcharges, while not perfect, have generally lived up to their original intent. However, Menaker acknowledged that in the $550 billion-a-year truckload sector, where fuel is a significant cost component because of the relatively long lengths of haul, there has been pressure to change "what shippers believe is a broken system." While surcharges in the truckload sector are based on the length of haul, surcharges in the smaller less-than-truckload (LTL) segment are calculated as a percentage of shipment revenue because the haulage lengths are shorter.
SURCHARGES EXPLAINED
Surcharges have three components: An index that sets fuel prices and serves as a benchmark for the surcharges; a "peg" or contractually negotiated price above or below which surcharges are or are not imposed; and an "escalator," which determines the actual surcharge amount based on the average mpg of a carrier's fleet. Most of the industry uses an index published each Monday by the Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) that surveys about 400 nationwide locations and determines national and regional prices. The EIA index includes a nationwide average price, as well as prices broken down by various regions.
The "peg" can be set anywhere from zero to more than $2 a gallon, depending on a shipper's volume and its preferences (more about that later). From there, the "escalator" formula kicks in, with a one-cent surcharge imposed for every five or six cents by which prices in the EIA index exceed the peg rate. The surcharge paid by the user is the difference between the peg and EIA prices, multiplied by the miles traveled.
For example, a shipper and truckload carrier agree to a peg price of $1.20 a gallon, a level that is fairly common. If weekly pump prices hit $4 a gallon and the interval of increase is set at 6 cents, the surcharge amount comes to 46.6 cents a mile. A load moving 1,000 miles would thus have a $466 surcharge tacked onto the base rate.
The 5- to 6-cent intervals have held sway for years because they match the historical number of miles a heavy-duty truck traveled on a gallon of fuel. However, truckload fleets with modern equipment get between 6.3 and 6.5 mpg, according to various estimates. Some trucks get as much as 7 mpg, but that isn't the norm.
Because the EIA numbers are nearly always above the pegs, surcharges have become a part of everyday shipping. However, with the weekly EIA nationwide price at $2.07 a gallon, the lowest inflation-adjusted level since December 2002, prices are approaching pegs that have been set at the upper end of the range.
TAKE THIS PEG AND ... !
Here's where it gets interesting. Though a higher peg means a smaller fuel surcharge, it also translates into a higher line-haul rate, since the carrier needs to recoup the foregone surcharge revenue one way or another. While a lower peg results in higher surcharges for the shipper, it would, at least in theory, be offset by declines in the base rate because the carriers were receiving more compensation for fuel.
Shipper-carrier contracts effectively become a roll of the dice; pegs are negotiated based in part on fuel price forecasts, which may or may not be accurate, but also on whether a shipper, not wanting to be bothered with fuel price volatility, would rather live with a high peg, pay virtually no fuel surcharges, and work toward negotiating a more favorable line-haul rate. Chris Lee, vice president of Bridge City, Texas-based ProMiles Software, a firm that provides real-time fuel-price tracking for carriers, said shippers in that scenario get a level of fuel price predictability that wouldn't be available with a lower peg and might be willing to absorb higher line-haul rates as a trade-off.
Lee said he knows of a large shipper, which he did not identify, that negotiated a contract for 2016 with a peg price of $2.50 a gallon. With the carrier getting six miles to the gallon, it embeds 41.6 cents a mile into the line-haul rate to cover its imputed fuel cost. However, with fuel prices on its lanes running around $2 a gallon, the carrier's actual fill-up cost is 33.3 cents per mile, Lee estimates. That 8.3-cent-a-mile difference—multiplied by thousands of miles driven—comes out of the shipper's pocket and goes straight to the carrier's bottom line, he said.
The dilemma for shippers is compounded by the variance in prices from, say, the Midwest and Gulf Coast, where diesel is cheaper, to the Northeast, where costs are higher. Fuel for a Dallas-to-Chicago run costs $1.92 a gallon, while a Boston-to Chicago trip clocks in at $2.21, according to ProMiles' current estimates. Yet only 10 miles separate the respective distances, Lee said. If the pegs on each run were the same, the difference in prices could be easily compared, Lee said. Not so, however, if the peg on one lane was set at $1.50 a gallon, and the other at $2 a gallon, he added.
ZERO TOLERANCE
Much of the head-spinning would disappear if the industry eliminated the peg altogether, let surcharges effectively cover all of the fuel cost, and let the chips fall where they may in line-haul rate negotiations, according to several experts. A zero peg eliminates pricing variability and gives carriers an incentive to invest in more fuel-efficient equipment and run their networks more efficiently to reduce wasteful fuel burn, they contend.
"Everything other than a zero base is artificial and manipulated," said Craig Dickman, founder of Breakthrough Fuel LLC, a Green Bay, Wis.-based consultancy that provides shippers with daily fuel pricing across all requested lanes, among other services. Chris Caplice, executive director of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Center for Transportation & Logistics, said a zero peg is easy to administer and understand, and imposes needed and beneficial discipline on carriers to improve their operations.
Caplice added that 99 percent of the industry still uses a peg, although several high-profile companies and huge shippers like Charlotte, N.C.-based Chiquita Brands International Inc. and Chicago-based Kraft Heinz Co. have adopted the zero-peg formula. Dickman offers a different view: About 68 percent of its shipper customers don't use a peg, up from 7.5 percent in 2011, he said.
Real-time pricing visibility and transparency, which can only be realized through information technology, is critical to distance the industry from the peg formula. Today, sophisticated tracking software can update diesel prices each day—sometimes multiple times a day—across a network of thousands of truckstops and service stations. At Breakthrough Fuel, shippers transmit their daily lane activity, which Breakthrough then runs through its systems to produce real-time fuel price data at all truckstops appearing on every requested lane. Breakthrough analyzes how fuel taxes, which vary from state to state, affect overall prices and provides market intelligence to accompany the data.
Dickman acknowledged that even sophisticated shippers have said its system takes some getting used to. Eventually, though, they gain better visibility into the role that fuel plays in their cost structure, he said. Dickman said his model goes a step further than a "zero peg" approach by creating a "surcharge free" mechanism for fuel reimbursement based on real-time rates that are sensitive to time, geography, and taxes. A carrier is fairly and accurately reimbursed for its costs based on the way it purchases fuel and pays applicable taxes, he said.
Lee of ProMiles said his firm's database, which can be updated every half hour, covers about 5,000 truckstops and service stations each day, compared with EIA's survey of 400 truckstops and service stations each week. Lee added that ProMiles' surveys exclude truckstops that also pump automotive diesel because those prices tend to skew the overall price trend higher. As a result, the average truck diesel prices in ProMiles' database are usually 2 to 6 cents a gallon below the average EIA prices, he said.
Advocates of the "zero peg" approach said the shift would not save shippers money. Carriers will be paid the same, whether it is in the form of higher fuel surcharge revenue or increased line-haul rates, they said. What will happen, they argued, is that shippers will have the confidence of knowing their fuel costs are exactly what they think they should be, and that both shipper and carrier will gain if fleet and network efficiency are improved.
The supply chain risk management firm Overhaul has landed $55 million in backing, saying the financing will fuel its advancements in artificial intelligence and support its strategic acquisition roadmap.
The equity funding round comes from the private equity firm Springcoast Partners, with follow-on participation from existing investors Edison Partners and Americo. As part of the investment, Springcoast’s Chris Dederick and Holger Staude will join Overhaul’s board of directors.
According to Austin, Texas-based Overhaul, the money comes as macroeconomic and global trade dynamics are driving consequential transformations in supply chains. That makes cargo visibility and proactive risk management essential tools as shippers manage new routes and suppliers.
“The supply chain technology space will see significant consolidation over the next 12 to 24 months,” Barry Conlon, CEO of Overhaul, said in a release. “Overhaul is well-positioned to establish itself as the ultimate integrated solution, delivering a comprehensive suite of tools for supply chain risk management, efficiency, and visibility under a single trusted platform.”
Artificial intelligence (AI) and data science were hot business topics in 2024 and will remain on the front burner in 2025, according to recent research published in AI in Action, a series of technology-focused columns in the MIT Sloan Management Review.
In Five Trends in AI and Data Science for 2025, researchers Tom Davenport and Randy Bean outline ways in which AI and our data-driven culture will continue to shape the business landscape in the coming year. The information comes from a range of recent AI-focused research projects, including the 2025 AI & Data Leadership Executive Benchmark Survey, an annual survey of data, analytics, and AI executives conducted by Bean’s educational firm, Data & AI Leadership Exchange.
The five trends range from the promise of agentic AI to the struggle over which C-suite role should oversee data and AI responsibilities. At a glance, they reveal that:
Leaders will grapple with both the promise and hype around agentic AI. Agentic AI—which handles tasks independently—is on the rise, in the form of generative AI bots that can perform some content-creation tasks. But the authors say it will be a while before such tools can handle major tasks—like make a travel reservation or conduct a banking transaction.
The time has come to measure results from generative AI experiments. The authors say very few companies are carefully measuring productivity gains from AI projects—particularly when it comes to figuring out what their knowledge-based workers are doing with the freed-up time those projects provide. Doing so is vital to profiting from AI investments.
The reality about data-driven culture sets in. The authors found that 92% of survey respondents feel that cultural and change management challenges are the primary barriers to becoming data- and AI-driven—indicating that the shift to AI is about much more than just the technology.
Unstructured data is important again. The ability to apply Generative AI tools to manage unstructured data—such as text, images, and video—is putting a renewed focus on getting all that data into shape, which takes a whole lot of human effort. As the authors explain “organizations need to pick the best examples of each document type, tag or graph the content, and get it loaded into the system.” And many companies simply aren’t there yet.
Who should run data and AI? Expect continued struggle. Should these roles be concentrated on the business or tech side of the organization? Opinions differ, and as the roles themselves continue to evolve, the authors say companies should expect to continue to wrestle with responsibilities and reporting structures.
Shippers today are praising an 11th-hour contract agreement that has averted the threat of a strike by dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports that could have frozen container imports and exports as soon as January 16.
The agreement came late last night between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) representing some 45,000 workers and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) that includes the operators of port facilities up and down the coast.
Details of the new agreement on those issues have not yet been made public, but in the meantime, retailers and manufacturers are heaving sighs of relief that trade flows will continue.
“Providing certainty with a new contract and avoiding further disruptions is paramount to ensure retail goods arrive in a timely manner for consumers. The agreement will also pave the way for much-needed modernization efforts, which are essential for future growth at these ports and the overall resiliency of our nation’s supply chain,” Gold said.
The next step in the process is for both sides to ratify the tentative agreement, so negotiators have agreed to keep those details private in the meantime, according to identical statements released by the ILA and the USMX. In their joint statement, the groups called the six-year deal a “win-win,” saying: “This agreement protects current ILA jobs and establishes a framework for implementing technologies that will create more jobs while modernizing East and Gulf coasts ports – making them safer and more efficient, and creating the capacity they need to keep our supply chains strong. This is a win-win agreement that creates ILA jobs, supports American consumers and businesses, and keeps the American economy the key hub of the global marketplace.”
The breakthrough hints at broader supply chain trends, which will focus on the tension between operational efficiency and workforce job protection, not just at ports but across other sectors as well, according to a statement from Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, a freight booking and payment platform. Port automation was the major sticking point leading up to this agreement, as the USMX pushed for technologies to make ports more efficient, while the ILA opposed automation or semi-automation that could threaten jobs.
"This is a six-year détente in the tech-versus-labor tug-of-war at U.S. ports," Levine said. “Automation remains a lightning rod—and likely one we’ll see in other industries—but this deal suggests a cautious path forward."
Editor's note: This story was revised on January 9 to include additional input from the ILA, USMX, and Freightos.
Logistics industry growth slowed in December due to a seasonal wind-down of inventory and following one of the busiest holiday shopping seasons on record, according to the latest Logistics Managers’ Index (LMI) report, released this week.
The monthly LMI was 57.3 in December, down more than a percentage point from November’s reading of 58.4. Despite the slowdown, economic activity across the industry continued to expand, as an LMI reading above 50 indicates growth and a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The LMI researchers said the monthly conditions were largely due to seasonal drawdowns in inventory levels—and the associated costs of holding them—at the retail level. The LMI’s Inventory Levels index registered 50, falling from 56.1 in November. That reduction also affected warehousing capacity, which slowed but remained in expansion mode: The LMI’s warehousing capacity index fell 7 points to a reading of 61.6.
December’s results reflect a continued trend toward more typical industry growth patterns following recent years of volatility—and they point to a successful peak holiday season as well.
“Retailers were clearly correct in their bet to stock [up] on goods ahead of the holiday season,” the LMI researchers wrote in their monthly report. “Holiday sales from November until Christmas Eve were up 3.8% year-over-year according to Mastercard. This was largely driven by a 6.7% increase in e-commerce sales, although in-person spending was up 2.9% as well.”
And those results came during a compressed peak shopping cycle.
“The increase in spending came despite the shorter holiday season due to the late Thanksgiving,” the researchers also wrote, citing National Retail Federation (NRF) estimates that U.S. shoppers spent just short of a trillion dollars in November and December, making it the busiest holiday season of all time.
The LMI is a monthly survey of logistics managers from across the country. It tracks industry growth overall and across eight areas: inventory levels and costs; warehousing capacity, utilization, and prices; and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices. The report is released monthly by researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, Rochester Institute of Technology, Rutgers University, and the University of Nevada, Reno, in conjunction with the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP).
As U.S. small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) face an uncertain business landscape in 2025, a substantial majority (67%) expect positive growth in the new year compared to 2024, according to a survey from DHL.
However, the survey also showed that businesses could face a rocky road to reach that goal, as they navigate a complex environment of regulatory/policy shifts and global market volatility. Both those issues were cited as top challenges by 36% of respondents, followed by staffing/talent retention (11%) and digital threats and cyber attacks (2%).
Against that backdrop, SMEs said that the biggest opportunity for growth in 2025 lies in expanding into new markets (40%), followed by economic improvements (31%) and implementing new technologies (14%).
As the U.S. prepares for a broad shift in political leadership in Washington after a contentious election, the SMEs in DHL’s survey were likely split evenly on their opinion about the impact of regulatory and policy changes. A plurality of 40% were on the fence (uncertain, still evaluating), followed by 24% who believe regulatory changes could negatively impact growth, 20% who see these changes as having a positive impact, and 16% predicting no impact on growth at all.
That uncertainty also triggered a split when respondents were asked how they planned to adjust their strategy in 2025 in response to changes in the policy or regulatory landscape. The largest portion (38%) of SMEs said they remained uncertain or still evaluating, followed by 30% who will make minor adjustments, 19% will maintain their current approach, and 13% who were willing to significantly adjust their approach.