By the numbers, fourth quarter shipment volume was down 4.7% compared to the prior quarter, while spending dropped 2.2%.
Geographically, fourth-quarter shipment volume was low across all regions. The Northeast had the smallest decline at 1.2% with the West just behind with a contraction of 2.1%. And the Southeast saw shipments drop 6.7%, the most of all regions, as hurricanes impacted freight activity.
“While this quarter’s Index revealed spending overall on truck freight continues to decline, we did see some signs that spending per truck is increasing,” said Bobby Holland, U.S. Bank director of freight business analytics. “Shipments falling more than spending – even with lower fuel surcharges – suggests tighter capacity.”
The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index measures quantitative changes in freight shipments and spend activity based on data from transactions processed through U.S. Bank Freight Payment, which processes more than $43 billion in freight payments annually for shippers and carriers across the U.S.
“It’s clear there are both cyclical and structural challenges remaining as we look for a truck freight market reboot,” Bob Costello, senior vice president and chief economist at the American Trucking Associations (ATA) said in a release on the results. “For instance, factory output softness – which has a disproportionate impact on truck freight volumes – is currently weighing heavily on our industry.”
When planning routes for their delivery trucks, fleet managers—or more likely, their route planning software systems—consider factors like mileage, road height and weight restrictions, traffic conditions, and weather. They can now add another variable to the mix, thanks to a new tool that calculates the chances that a load might be stolen along the way.
Developed by New Jersey-based risk assessment firm Verisk Analytics, CargoNet RouteScore API generates a cargo theft "risk score" that provides a relative measure of probability that crime and loss will occur along any given route in the U.S. and Canada. Using a proprietary algorithm, the tool rates routes on a scale from 1 to 100—with 1 representing the lowest likelihood of theft—based on risk factors such as cargo type, value, length of haul, origin, destination, day of the week, and the theft history of specific truck stops.
Companies can also use the tool to protect their cargo proactively, Verisk says. For example, before sending a truck out on a high-risk route, a carrier could implement additional security measures like tracking devices, driver teams, and escorts or even secure parking spots in advance.
Verisk adds that the tool's API format allows for easy integration with both proprietary systems and the third-party transportation management systems (TMS) that many companies use to manage their trucking operations.
Drivers typically choose a specific blend of gasoline based on their car's engine, picking high-octane fuel for a sports car and regular gas for the family sedan. Now a company has launched a similar range of products for diesel fuel, saying the offerings are calibrated for vehicles like commercial trucks.
That company, Nevada-based Advanced Refining Concepts LLC (ARC), will launch two new products, GDiesel Lightning and GDiesel Thunder, by mid-year, the company said in January.
According to the firm, GDiesel Lightning is a lighter, faster-igniting diesel fuel than the classic mix and is designed specifically for urban start-stop operations—think delivery vehicles, light trucks, city buses, and passenger vehicles. GDiesel Thunder is a heavier, higher energy-content fuel made for steadier and more continuous engine operating modes, making it suitable for long-haul trucking or rail and marine applications.
According to the company, choosing the right fuel for a particular application can reduce visible smoke and other regulated emissions, maximize efficiency, and minimize engine wear. And both fuels meet current diesel regulatory standards, it says, obviating the need for modifications to engines, fueling infrastructures, or warranties.
The new fuels' potential is not just limited to petroleum diesel. ARC says the process to make GDiesel Lightning and GDiesel Thunder has been successfully applied to renewable diesel, and both petroleum and bio-based versions of these fuels can be used as next-generation blend stock or to vastly increase biodiesel blend ratios and efficiency.
"Engine manufacturers are at their limits trying to improve efficiency and emissions from standard diesel. It is long past due time to redesign the fuel side," ARC Managing Partner Peter Gunnerman said in a release. "It has never made sense to assume that one diesel fuel option can be efficient for all diesel engine types and operating cycles."
Both shippers and carriers feel growing urgency for the logistics industry to agree on a common standard for key performance indicators (KPIs), as the sector’s benchmarks have continued to evolve since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to research from freight brokerage RXO.
The feeling is nearly universal, with 87% of shippers and 90% of carriers agreeing that there should be set KPI industry standards, up from 78% and 74% respectively in 2022, according to results from “The Logistics Professional’s Guide to KPIs,” an RXO research study conducted in collaboration with third-party research firm Qualtrics.
"Managing supply chain data is incredibly important, but it’s not easy. What technology to use, which metrics to track, where to set benchmarks, how to leverage data to drive action – modern logistics professionals grapple with all these challenges,” Ben Steffes, VP of Solutions & Strategy at RXO, said in a release.
Additional results from the survey showed that shippers are more data-driven than they were in the past; 86% of shippers reference their logistics KPIs at least weekly (up from 79% in 2022), and 45% of shippers reference them daily (up from 32% in 2022).
Despite that sharpened focus, performance benchmarks have become slightly more lenient, the survey showed. Industry performance standards for core transportation KPIs—such as on-time performance, payables, and tender acceptance—are generally consistent with 2022, but the underlying data shows a tendency to be a bit more forgiving, RXO said.
One solution is to be a shipper-of-choice for your chosen carriers. That strategy can enable better rates and more capacity, as RXO found 95% of carriers said inefficient shipping practices impact the rates they give to shippers, and 99% of carriers take a shipper’s KPI expectations into account before agreeing to move a shipment.
“KPIs are essential for effective supply chain management and continuous improvement, and they’re always evolving,” Steffes said. “Shifts in consumer demand and an influx of technology are driving this change, in combination with the dynamic and fragmented nature of the freight market. To optimize performance, businesses need consistent measurement and reporting. We released this study to help shippers and carriers benchmark their standards against how their peers approach KPIs today.”
The growth of electric vehicles (EVs) is likely to stagnate in 2025 due to headwinds created by uncertainty about the future of federal EV incentives, possible tariffs on both EV and gasoline-powered vehicles, relaxed federal emissions and mileage standards, and ongoing challenges with the public charging network, according to a report from J.D. Power.
Specifically, J.D. Power projects that total EV retail share will hold steady in 2025 at 9.1% of the market, or 1.2 million vehicles sold. Longer term, the new forecast calls for the EV market to reach 26% retail share by 2030, which is approximately half of the market share the Biden administration targeted in its climate agenda.
A major reason for that flat result will be the Trump Administration’s intention to end the $7,500 federal Clean Vehicle Tax Credit, which has played a major role in incentivizing current EV owners to purchase or lease an EV, J.D. Power says.
Even as EV manufacturers and consumers adjust to those new dynamics, the electric car market will continue to change under their feet. Whereas the early days of the EV market were defined by premium segment vehicles, that growth trend has now shifted to the mass market segment where franchise EV sales rose 58% in 2024, reaching a total of 376,000 units. That success came after mainstream franchise EV sales accounted for just 0.8% of total EV market share in 2021. In 2024, that number rose to 2.9%, as EVs from the likes of Chevrolet, Ford, Honda, Hyundai and Kia surged in popularity, the report said.
This growth in the mass market segment—along with federal and state incentives—has also helped make EVs cheaper than comparable gas-powered vehicles, J.D. Power found. On average, at the end of 2024, the average cost of a battery-electric vehicle (BEV) was $44,400, which is $1,000 less than a comparable gas-powered vehicle, inclusive of hybrids and plugin hybrids. While that balance may change if federal tax incentives are removed, the trend toward EVs being a lower cost option has correlated with increases in sales, which will be an important factor for manufacturers to consider as they confront the current marketplace.
As U.S. businesses count down the days until the expiration of the Trump Administration’s monthlong pause of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, a report from Uber Freight says the tariffs will likely be avoided through an extended agreement, since the potential for damaging consequences would be so severe for all parties.
If the tariffs occurred, they could push U.S. inflation higher, adding $1,000 to $1,200 to the average person's cost of living. And relief from interest rates would likely not come to the rescue, since inflation is already above the Fed's target, delaying further rate cuts.
A potential impact of the tariffs in the long run might be to boost domestic freight by giving local manufacturers an edge. However, the magnitude and sudden implementation of these tariffs means we likely won't see such benefits for a while, and the immediate damage will be more significant in the meantime, Uber Freight said in its “2025 Q1 Market update & outlook.”
That market volatility comes even as tough times continue in the freight market. In the U.S. full truckload sector, the cost per loaded mile currently exceeds spot rates significantly, which will likely push rate increases.
However, in the first quarter of 2025, spot rates are now falling, as they usually do in February following the winter peak. According to Uber Freight, this situation arose after truck operating costs rose 2 cents/mile in 2023 despite a 9-cent diesel price decline, thanks to increases in insurance (+13%), truck and trailer costs (+9%), and driver wages (+8%). Costs then fell 2 cents/mile in 2024, resulting in stable costs over the past two years.
Fortunately, Uber Freight predicts that the freight cycle could soon begin to turn, as signs of a recovery are emerging despite weak current demand. A measure of manufacturing growth called the ISM PMI edged up to 50.9 in December, surpassing the expansion threshold for the first time in 26 months.
Accordingly, new orders and production increased while employment stabilized. That means the U.S. manufacturing economy appears to be expanding after a prolonged period of contraction, signaling a positive outlook for freight demand, Uber Freight said.