Freight transportation sector analysts with US Bank say they expect change on the horizon in that market for 2025, due to possible tariffs imposed by a new White House administration, the return of East and Gulf coast port strikes, and expanding freight fraud.
“All three of these merit scrutiny, and that is our promise as we roll into the new year,” the company said in a statement today.
First, US Bank said a new administration will occupy the White House and will control the House and Senate for the first time since 2016. With an announced mandate on tariffs, taxes and trade from his electoral victory, President-Elect Trump’s anticipated actions are almost certain to impact the supply chain, the bank said.
Second, a strike by longshoreman at East Coast and Gulf ports was suspended in October, but the can was only kicked until mid-January. Shipper alarm bells are already ringing, and with peak season in full swing, the West coast ports are roaring, having absorbed containers bound for the East. However, that status may not be sustainable in the event of a prolonged strike in January, US Bank said.
And third, analyst are tracking the proliferation of freight fraud, and its reverberations across the supply chain. No longer the realm of petty criminals, freight fraudsters have become increasingly sophisticated, and the financial toll of their activities in the loss of goods, and data, is expected to be in the billions, the bank estimates.
That number is low compared to widespread unemployment in the transportation sector which reached its highest level during the COVID-19 pandemic at 15.7% in both May 2020 and July 2020. But it is slightly above the most recent pre-pandemic rate for the sector, which was 2.8% in December 2019, the BTS said.
For broader context, the nation’s overall unemployment rate for all sectors rose slightly in December, increasing 0.3 percentage points from December 2023 to 3.8%.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment in the transportation and warehousing sector rose to 6,630,200 people in December 2024 — up 0.1% from the previous month and up 1.7% from December 2023. Employment in transportation and warehousing grew 15.1% in December 2024 from the pre-pandemic December 2019 level of 5,760,300 people.
The largest portion of those workers was in warehousing and storage, followed by truck transportation, according to a breakout of the total figures into separate modes (seasonally adjusted):
Warehousing and storage rose to 1,770,300 in December 2024 — up 0.1% from the previous month and up 0.2% from December 2023.
Truck transportation fell to 1,545,900 in December 2024 — down 0.1% from the previous month and down 0.4% from December 2023.
Air transportation rose to 578,000 in December 2024 — up 0.4% from the previous month and up 1.4% from December 2023.
Transit and ground passenger transportation rose to 456,000 in December 2024 — up 0.3% from the previous month and up 5.7% from December 2023.
Rail transportation remained virtually unchanged in December 2024 at 150,300 from the previous month but down 1.8% from December 2023.
Water transportation rose to 74,300 in December 2024 — up 0.1% from the previous month and up 4.8% from December 2023.
Pipeline transportation rose to 55,000 in December 2024 — up 0.5% from the previous month and up 6.2% from December 2023.
Shippers today are praising an 11th-hour contract agreement that has averted the threat of a strike by dockworkers at East and Gulf coast ports that could have frozen container imports and exports as soon as January 16.
The agreement came late last night between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) representing some 45,000 workers and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) that includes the operators of port facilities up and down the coast.
Details of the new agreement on those issues have not yet been made public, but in the meantime, retailers and manufacturers are heaving sighs of relief that trade flows will continue.
“Providing certainty with a new contract and avoiding further disruptions is paramount to ensure retail goods arrive in a timely manner for consumers. The agreement will also pave the way for much-needed modernization efforts, which are essential for future growth at these ports and the overall resiliency of our nation’s supply chain,” Gold said.
The next step in the process is for both sides to ratify the tentative agreement, so negotiators have agreed to keep those details private in the meantime, according to identical statements released by the ILA and the USMX. In their joint statement, the groups called the six-year deal a “win-win,” saying: “This agreement protects current ILA jobs and establishes a framework for implementing technologies that will create more jobs while modernizing East and Gulf coasts ports – making them safer and more efficient, and creating the capacity they need to keep our supply chains strong. This is a win-win agreement that creates ILA jobs, supports American consumers and businesses, and keeps the American economy the key hub of the global marketplace.”
The breakthrough hints at broader supply chain trends, which will focus on the tension between operational efficiency and workforce job protection, not just at ports but across other sectors as well, according to a statement from Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, a freight booking and payment platform. Port automation was the major sticking point leading up to this agreement, as the USMX pushed for technologies to make ports more efficient, while the ILA opposed automation or semi-automation that could threaten jobs.
"This is a six-year détente in the tech-versus-labor tug-of-war at U.S. ports," Levine said. “Automation remains a lightning rod—and likely one we’ll see in other industries—but this deal suggests a cautious path forward."
Editor's note: This story was revised on January 9 to include additional input from the ILA, USMX, and Freightos.
Following the deal, Palm Harbor, Florida-based FreightCenter’s customers will gain access to BlueGrace’s unified transportation management system, BlueShip TMS, enabling freight management across various shipping modes. They can also use BlueGrace’s truckload and less-than-truckload (LTL) services and its EVOS load optimization tools, stemming from another acquisition BlueGrace did in 2024.
According to Tampa, Florida-based BlueGrace, the acquisition aligns with its mission to deliver simplified logistics solutions for all size businesses.
Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the firms said that FreightCenter will continue to operate as an independent business under its current brand, in order to ensure continuity for its customers and partners.
BlueGrace is held by the private equity firm Warburg Pincus. It operates from nine offices located in transportation hubs across the U.S. and Mexico, serving over 10,000 customers annually through its BlueShip technology platform that offers connectivity with more than 250,000 carrier suppliers.
Under terms of the deal, Sick and Endress+Hauser will each hold 50% of a joint venture called "Endress+Hauser SICK GmbH+Co. KG," which will strengthen the development and production of analyzer and gas flow meter technologies. According to Sick, its gas flow meters make it possible to switch to low-emission and non-fossil energy sources, for example, and the process analyzers allow reliable monitoring of emissions.
As part of the partnership, the product solutions manufactured together will now be marketed by Endress+Hauser, allowing customers to use a broader product portfolio distributed from a single source via that company’s global sales centers.
Under terms of the contract between the two companies—which was signed in the summer of 2024— around 800 Sick employees located in 42 countries will transfer to Endress+Hauser, including workers in the global sales and service units of Sick’s “Cleaner Industries” division.
“This partnership is a perfect match,” Peter Selders, CEO of the Endress+Hauser Group, said in a release. “It creates new opportunities for growth and development, particularly in the sustainable transformation of the process industry. By joining forces, we offer added value to our customers. Our combined efforts will make us faster and ultimately more successful than if we acted alone. In this case, one and one equals more than two.”
According to Sick, the move means that its current customers will continue to find familiar Sick contacts available at Endress+Hauser for consulting, sales, and service of process automation solutions. The company says this approach allows it to focus on its core business of factory and logistics automation to meet global demand for automation and digitalization.
Sick says its core business has always been in factory and logistics automation, which accounts for more than 80% of sales, and this area remains unaffected by the new joint venture. In Sick’s view, automation is crucial for industrial companies to secure their productivity despite limited resources. And Sick’s sensor solutions are a critical part of industrial automation, which increases productivity through artificial intelligence and the digital networking of production and supply chains.
Specifically, the two sides remain at odds over provisions related to the deployment of semi-automated technologies like rail-mounted gantry cranes, according to an analysis by the Kansas-based 3PL Noatum Logistics. The ILA has strongly opposed further automation, arguing it threatens dockworker protections, while the USMX contends that automation enhances productivity and can create long-term opportunities for labor.
In fact, U.S. importers are already taking action to prevent the impact of such a strike, “pulling forward” their container shipments by rushing imports to earlier dates on the calendar, according to analysis by supply chain visibility provider Project44. That strategy can help companies to build enough safety stock to dampen the damage of events like the strike and like the steep tariffs being threatened by the incoming Trump administration.
Likewise, some ocean carriers have already instituted January surcharges in pre-emption of possible labor action, which could support inbound ocean rates if a strike occurs, according to freight market analysts with TD Cowen. In the meantime, the outcome of the new negotiations are seen with “significant uncertainty,” due to the contentious history of the discussion and to the timing of the talks that overlap with a transition between two White House regimes, analysts said.