On the eve of the second World War, American factories were at peak production, churning out cars, washing machines, building materials, and radios for both domestic consumption and export worldwide.
U.S. factories were so prolific and efficient that they easily pivoted to become the “arsenal of democracy,” a phrase President Roosevelt coined in December of 1940—a year before the U.S. entered the war. At that time, our factories had enough capacity to produce much of the materiel that Britain desperately needed to hold off German advances.
Following Pearl Harbor and the United States’ entry into World War II, American factories threw their full weight behind the war effort. Detroit’s factories switched from manufacturing cars to producing tanks and jeeps. Clothing makers went from sewing dresses to stitching together uniforms and parachutes. Many historians believe that it was America’s ability to outproduce Germany and Japan that won the war.
However, beginning in the 1980s, America began switching from exporting its manufactured goods to exporting its manufacturing capabilities. Goods could be produced more cheaply elsewhere, so it made some sense to outsource production. Slowly, our manufacturing base eroded.
We still make things in the U.S.A., just not at the same percentage of total consumption that we used to. America’s trade deficit currently runs to about $70 billion in goods and services per month. And while some production is being reshored, our manufacturing capabilities are not nearly where they need to be should a major conflict erupt.
The biggest problem is that we don’t have enough trained workers. When we shipped out our manufacturing, we also shipped out our knowledge and skills base. Much of that went to China, a country that is both our second-largest trading partner and one of our chief adversaries.
An August Associated Press article described the U.S. Navy’s ability to build warships as “in a terrible state—the worst it has been in a quarter century” due to a lack of available manpower.
That could be a serious problem. A July report from the congressionally created Commission on the National Defense Strategy concluded that, “The threats the United States faces are the most serious and most challenging the nation has encountered since 1945 and include the potential for near-term major war.” It goes on to say that the risks are rising, not diminishing, and we are not prepared for a major conflict.
I don’t write this to scare you. I’m merely asking whether, if the unimaginable happens, America has the manufacturing and supply chain capabilities we need to respond as we once did.
