Some tech hype will miss the mark in 2020, ABI says

December 16, 2019

Heavily hyped new technologies like 5G wearables, quantum computing, and self-driving trucks will not gain any significant market traction in 2020, according to a forecast from market analysis firm ABI Research.

"Despite numerous headlines declaring the arrival of driverless, self-driving, or robot vehicles, very little, if any, driver-free commercial usage is underway beyond closed-course operations in the United States," Susan Beardslee, ABI's freight transportation & logistics principal analyst, said in a release.

Three other technology trends that will probably not gain market share in the new year include: consolidation of the internet of things (IoT) platform sector, edge computing overtaking the cloud computing model, and television sets with 8K screen resolution, the London-based technology research firm said in a whitepaper titled "54 Technology Trends to Watch in 2020."

The report balances 35 trends that it predicts will shape the technology market with 19 other trends that will fail to justify the amount of attention they have received. "After a tumultuous 2019 that was beset by many challenges, both integral to technology markets and derived from global market dynamics, 2020 looks set to be equally challenging," Stuart Carlaw, ABI's chief research officer, said in a release. "Knowing what won't happen in technology in the next year is important for end users, implementors, and vendors to properly place their investments or focus their strategies."

Another popular logistics technology that will not make headway in the new year is the rise of wearable computers running on the nascent, lighting-fast, fifth generation—or 5G—wireless network, ABI said.

"While smartphones will dominate the 5G market in 2020, 5G wearables won't arrive in 2020, or anytime soon," Stephanie Tomsett, ABI's analyst for 5G devices, smartphones & wearables, said in a release. "To bring 5G to wearables, specific 5G chipsets will need to be designed and components will need to be reconfigured to fit in the small form factor. That won't begin to happen until 2024, at the earliest."