As if retailers and manufacturers don't have enough challenges dealing with returns of products that don't work, they now have to cope with a growing volume of products that folks don't want.
The ordering ease and convenience spawned by online and mobile commerce has created an American "entitlement culture" that thinks nothing of returning stuff that is in otherwise perfect condition just because they simply didn't want it, according to Tony Sciarrotta, executive director of the Reverse Logistics Association (RLA). In 2017, e-commerce created 400 million package returns that would not have otherwise occurred. Of those, 80 to 90 percent were shown to have "no fault found," said Sciarrotta, using reverse logistics lingo to describe a non-defective product.
Consumers will return products ordered online—as they will do for store-bought items—because they are either disappointed with how they performed or because they changed their minds about the purchase. However, an increasing number of returns are effectively pre-ordained, and are conceived even before the consumer hits the order button to trigger the forward move. That's because consumers, knowing they won't be charged a shipping fee for returned items, feel free to order multiple sizes or versions of a product, keep all but one, and return the rest.
Not surprisingly, the percentage of returns of online orders is significantly higher than that of returns to traditional stores. According to RLA data from 2017, the e-commerce return rate was 18 to 25 percent, roughly three times that of brick-and-mortar stores. Online returns tend to run particularly high for clothing and shoe purchases because customers are especially likely to order several sizes to assure proper fit and style.
Sciarrotta told the SMC3 annual winter meeting in Atlanta Monday that returns account for between 7 and 11 percent of the cost of goods sold, but that the percentage is bound to go much higher as e-commerce inevitably takes a larger share of total retail sales. Currently, e-commerce composes about 9-12 percent of overall retail sales, depending on the source of the projection.
The reverse logistics process will be further complicated by what is projected to be a secular surge in demand for the Internet of Things (IoT), where products of almost every conceivable type will be digitally connected. Sciarrotta said the dizzying number of compliance standards for IoT deployment present a formidable challenge for those charged with processing returns.
Fortunately for retailers, many consumers still prefer to return items—even those ordered online—to stores. This provides several benefits to the retailers, according to Sarah Galica, senior director, reverse logistics, at Atlanta-based home improvement giant Home Depot Inc. It saves the retailer the costs of product pickup; it allows an unopened item to be re-stocked on the shelf or in store inventory for re-sale; and perhaps most important, it enables face-to-face feedback with the customer to determine what the problem was, a scenario that doesn't take place online, Galica said.
"A customer who's unhappy is more expensive for us than the cost of handling a return," Galica told the conference.
However, Sciarrotta of RLA said such a concept would be problematic for many retailers because they would lose the revenue opportunity of a potential re-sale. In addition, the program would be negative for the environment because it would add more junk to already-overburdened landfills, he said.
Ironically, technology—in the form of artificial intelligence (AI)—could play a role in mitigating online product returns by identifying consumer ordering patterns, and perhaps enabling retailers to guide consumers away from products that they had bought and returned before, Sciarrotta said.
Meal kit producer HelloFresh relies on automation to guarantee fresh and accurate shipments to customers—and that reliance has only increased as the company has grown from a small German startup to a global enterprise serving consumers in 18 countries. Surging demand, expanding menus, and the ever-present challenge of meeting high food quality and safety standards add complexity to the HelloFresh model, necessitating a focus on technologies that can give the business an edge as it grows.
Zeroing in on the U.S. market, company leaders took a leap nearly five years ago that would help HelloFresh meet burgeoning local demand and set the stage for further expansion of its menu and capabilities. They added a brand-new distribution center (DC) in Irving, Texas, that would feature the most advanced technology in the company's North American fulfillment network to date.
"Once we had identified that we were moving toward a greenfield site, we saw the opportunity to have an enhanced fulfillment system in the building," Kyle DeGroot, vice president of operations engineering and technology for HelloFresh, says of the Irving project. "We wanted the capability to expand our product offering while maintaining or increasing efficiency from a fulfillment standpoint."
The answer to that challenge: an automated storage and retrieval system (AS/RS) from AutoStore. The system is now the centerpiece of a customized, high-tech fulfillment process that is speeding operations, increasing throughput, and improving productivity—all while giving HelloFresh the flexibility to shift and expand its menu without complicating the fulfillment process.
TAMING COMPLEXITY
HelloFresh was founded in 2011 in Berlin and has grown from its early days as a community-based business into a global organization that delivered more than 1 billion meals to customers in 2023, according to company data. Faced with escalating demand in the U.S., HelloFresh set out to expand its fulfillment network in 2020, adding the 377,000-square-foot Irving facility and bringing the company's U.S. fulfillment network to a total of eight DCs.
More than that, the Irving DC was an opportunity to advance the company's use of automated warehouse technology and build on its presence in the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area—both because of the facility's size and because it was a greenfield site, offering a blank slate for innovation. The goal was to leverage the reliability, density, and speed of AutoStore as the heart of an automated meal kit assembly process, according to HelloFresh and leaders at Swisslog, the material handling automation specialist that designed and installed the AutoStore system.
For Swisslog, the project represented a departure from typical AS/RS installations, which are designed to handle traditional distribution center operations, including e-commerce and store fulfillment.
"HelloFresh is in the distribution business, shipping meals to the home. However, once we took a closer look at [the business], we [realized] that it acted more like a production operation," explains Colman Roche, vice president of AutoStore solutions for Swisslog Americas. "Items are moving in and out faster than in a typical system."
That's because HelloFresh orders need to be filled quickly and under precise conditions to meet food freshness and safety standards. And there are a lot of moving parts: HelloFresh subscribers can customize their meal plans from more than 100 weekly menu and market item offerings and choose the day of the week they want orders delivered. The company sources meal ingredients to minimize the time between receipt and shipping, and carefully packages components to ensure freshness and simplify preparation.
The meal kits themselves may include fresh produce, starches, seasonings, recipe cards, and nutritional information along with proteins—such as fish, chicken, and beef. Subscribers can also supplement their meals with snacks, desserts, and other items from the HelloFresh Market. As a result, a typical HelloFresh outbound container includes 16 items, which must be packed in a prescribed sequence. The entire process is conducted in a chilled environment that is maintained at 33 degrees Fahrenheit.
"That insight [into the nature of HelloFresh's operations] allowed us to take a different look at the system design and come up with something that flowed more easily [in a production environment]," Roche explains.
PUTTING THE SYSTEM TO WORK
HelloFresh uses varying levels of automation at its facilities around the world, but the AutoStore system in Irving is by far the most advanced, according to DeGroot, who describes the project as a unique application of the technology. Unlike typical installations—in which orders are initiated within the AutoStore and work their way through the fulfillment process via picking stations, pack out, and eventually to shipping—orders begin outside the AutoStore, in a manual pick zone. Orders are then inducted into the AutoStore via conveyor in a sequence that maximizes throughput and worker productivity.
Roche and DeGroot describe the process as follows: Orders are initiated in a manual pick zone, where box assembly begins with proteins and ice packs. Boxed orders are then transported by conveyor and inducted into the AutoStore in a controlled sequence and dynamically grouped in batches of four based on commonalities across the orders.
The partial orders are then delivered to pickers working at carousel ports, along with bins of ingredients from the AutoStore inventory that are needed to complete the order—this allows workers to pick directly into cartons at the AutoStore ports. Workers can fulfill four orders simultaneously, maximizing the number of picks they make from each bin. Inventory is replenished through the system's 11 induction ports to maintain freshness.
Downstream from the AutoStore, orders are conveyed to automated carton sealers and labeling equipment, and then sorted for shipping.
Swisslog's SynQ warehouse execution system (WES) manages the entire process—including routing, picking across all zones, replenishment, sortation, and label printing. SynQ also provides centralized inventory management and visibility based on a first-expired, first-out (FEFO) strategy that helps ensure freshness. The WES is integrated with the facility's warehouse management system (WMS) as well.
"[SynQ] is the brain behind everything, bringing it all together," says DeGroot.
Getting the system up and running was no small accomplishment, given its size and scale. The cube-based AS/RS takes up 100,000 square feet of the facility's total 377,000 square feet of space. It includes 150 robots, nearly 30,000 storage bins, 18 carousel ports for picking, 11 conveyor ports for induction, four quality assurance ports, 6,000 feet of conveyor, four carton erectors, 12 protein pick zones with pick-to-light cells, a sortation system, and carton sealing and labeling equipment.
HUMMING ALONG
HelloFresh went live with the Irving AutoStore in 2022 and has been operating at full production since 2023. Company leaders say the system is 25% more efficient and accurate while shipping 20% more recipes compared to the rest of its fulfillment network. One of the biggest benefits is flexibility: Today, HelloFresh can easily expand its menu, adding recipes and ingredients without introducing complexity into the fulfillment process—all thanks to the software integration, synchronization, and the power of the AutoStore.
"This is something we could not have done before," DeGroot says, emphasizing the scale, speed, and flexibility of the system. "And it's the reason we use the Irving facility for expansion initiatives."
The third-party logistics provider (3PL) LVK will partner with Instawork, whose app connects hourly professionals with local jobs, with the partners saying the move will answer a structural shortage of warehouse workers.
The deal will work by integrating LVK’s warehouse operations software with Instawork's network of vetted hourly workers, creating a lever to scale up warehouse operations across North America, they said.
That step is necessary because the warehouse industry can’t find enough workers to support its continued expansion to meet surging consumer demand. In fact, Instawork’s State of Warehouse Labor report has found that 43% of businesses had to forego revenue as a result of insufficient staffing.
"By joining forces with LVK, we are taking a significant step towards empowering warehouses with the tools and labor they need to thrive in today's fast-paced environment," Alex Vinden, General Manager of Light Industrial for Instawork, said in a release. "Together, we are poised to deliver unparalleled value to warehouse operators, ensuring they can meet customer demands with precision and agility."
According to Maggie Barnett, CEO of LVK, the new linkage will equip warehouses with both the labor and the technology they need in today's competitive landscape. "LVK is excited to partner with Instawork to bring transformative solutions to the warehouse industry," Barnett said. "Our combined expertise will empower warehouse operators to enhance their operations, reduce costs, and improve service levels, ultimately driving success in a competitive landscape."
“Consumers pulled back in January, taking a breather after a stronger-than-expected holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in the report. “Despite the monthly decline, the year-over-year increases reflect overall consumer strength as a strong job market and wage gains above the rate of inflation continue to support spending. We’re seeing a ‘choiceful’ and value-conscious consumer who is rotating spending across goods and services and essentials and non-essentials, boosting some sectors while causing challenges in others.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were down 1.07% seasonally adjusted month over month but up 5.44% unadjusted year over year in January, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 1.74% month over month and 7.24% year over year in December.
Likewise, the Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobile dealers and gasoline stations) was down 1.27% month over month in January but up 5.72% year over year. That compared with increases of 2.19% month over month and 8.41% year over year in December.
NRF says that unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, its Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.
As U.S. businesses count down the days until the expiration of the Trump Administration’s monthlong pause of tariffs on Canada and Mexico, a report from Uber Freight says the tariffs will likely be avoided through an extended agreement, since the potential for damaging consequences would be so severe for all parties.
If the tariffs occurred, they could push U.S. inflation higher, adding $1,000 to $1,200 to the average person's cost of living. And relief from interest rates would likely not come to the rescue, since inflation is already above the Fed's target, delaying further rate cuts.
A potential impact of the tariffs in the long run might be to boost domestic freight by giving local manufacturers an edge. However, the magnitude and sudden implementation of these tariffs means we likely won't see such benefits for a while, and the immediate damage will be more significant in the meantime, Uber Freight said in its “2025 Q1 Market update & outlook.”
That market volatility comes even as tough times continue in the freight market. In the U.S. full truckload sector, the cost per loaded mile currently exceeds spot rates significantly, which will likely push rate increases.
However, in the first quarter of 2025, spot rates are now falling, as they usually do in February following the winter peak. According to Uber Freight, this situation arose after truck operating costs rose 2 cents/mile in 2023 despite a 9-cent diesel price decline, thanks to increases in insurance (+13%), truck and trailer costs (+9%), and driver wages (+8%). Costs then fell 2 cents/mile in 2024, resulting in stable costs over the past two years.
Fortunately, Uber Freight predicts that the freight cycle could soon begin to turn, as signs of a recovery are emerging despite weak current demand. A measure of manufacturing growth called the ISM PMI edged up to 50.9 in December, surpassing the expansion threshold for the first time in 26 months.
Accordingly, new orders and production increased while employment stabilized. That means the U.S. manufacturing economy appears to be expanding after a prolonged period of contraction, signaling a positive outlook for freight demand, Uber Freight said.
Part of the reason for that situation is that companies can’t adjust to tariffs overnight by finding new suppliers. “Supply chains are complex. Retailers continue to engage in diversification efforts. Unfortunately, it takes significant time to move supply chains, even if you can find available capacity,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a release.
“While we support the need to address the fentanyl crisis at our borders, new tariffs on China and other countries will mean higher prices for American families,” Gold said. “Retailers have engaged in mitigation strategies to minimize the potential impact of tariffs, including frontloading of some products, but that can lead to increased challenges because of added warehousing and related costs. We hope to resolve our outstanding border security issues as quickly as possible because there will be a significant impact on the economy if increased tariffs are maintained and expanded.”
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said tariffs on Canada and Mexico would initially have minimal impact at ports because most imports from either country move by truck, rail or pipeline. In the long term, tariffs on goods that receive final manufacturing in Canada or Mexico but originate elsewhere could prompt an increase in direct maritime imports to the U.S. In the meantime, port cargo “could be badly hit” if tariffs on overseas Asian and European nations increase prices and prompt consumers to buy less, he said.
“At this stage, the situation is fluid, and it’s too early to know if the tariffs will be implemented, removed or further delayed,” Hackett said. “As such, our view of North American imports has not changed significantly for the next six months.”
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.14 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in December, although the Port of New York and New Jersey and the Port of Miami have yet to report final data. That was down 0.9% from November but up 14.4% year over year, and would be the busiest December on record. For the year, December brought 2024 to a total of 25.5 million TEU, up 14.8% from 2023 and the highest level since 2021’s record of 25.8 million TEU during the pandemic.
Global Port Tracker provides historical data and forecasts for the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.