Mark Solomon joined DC VELOCITY as senior editor in August 2008, and was promoted to his current position on January 1, 2015. He has spent more than 30 years in the transportation, logistics and supply chain management fields as a journalist and public relations professional. From 1989 to 1994, he worked in Washington as a reporter for the Journal of Commerce, covering the aviation and trucking industries, the Department of Transportation, Congress and the U.S. Supreme Court. Prior to that, he worked for Traffic World for seven years in a similar role. From 1994 to 2008, Mr. Solomon ran Media-Based Solutions, a public relations firm based in Atlanta. He graduated in 1978 with a B.A. in journalism from The American University in Washington, D.C.
Despite growing signs the trucking industry is finally recovering from a four-year recession, access to credit remains stubbornly tight and cautious truckers seem reluctant to borrow, according to a quarterly survey by M&A firm Transport Capital Partners.
A second-quarter survey of about 160 truckers, most of whom have annual revenues of more than $25 million, found that 60 percent expected credit availability to remain unchanged during the next six months, with 15 percent expecting credit conditions to tighten. Just 25 percent forecast credit conditions to improve by year's end.
The speculation over credit availability comes amid a brightening picture for the trucking industry. Nearly 90 percent expect volumes to increase over the next 12 months compared with the prior 12 months. That was up from 70 percent in the first-quarter survey. About 84 percent of respondents expected rates to rise over the next 12 months, up 53 percent from the first quarter and 12 percent from a year ago.
One reflection of truckers' optimism is their reduced reliance on freight brokers for business. About 80 percent of the carriers surveyed reported they were making less use of brokers, compared with 30 percent in May 2009. The figures indicate that business is strong enough for truckers to procure more traffic directly from shippers without having to pay an intermediary to generate loads.
Opinions over credit conditions were divided, depending on carrier revenue. Of those respondents expecting tighter credit, only 10 percent were truckers with annual revenues of more than $25 million, while 27 percent were smaller companies.
Richard J. Mikes, a managing partner with Transport Capital Partners, said he was surprised by the feedback on credit conditions given historically low interest rates and ample liquidity in the marketplace. Yet an absence of credit isn't as much of a negative as it might seem, he added. Larger truckers are already sitting on large cash piles and may not need credit to finance capital investments. Smaller truckers are generally conservative and will be loath to buy anything if they can't pay cash for it, Mikes said.
While the lack of credit may hamper purchases of new equipment, Mikes said that isn't much of a concern, either. There is an enormous amount of used capacity already parked, and truckers can effectively add space simply by boosting the utilization of their existing fleet. Should truckers want to add rigs or trailers, they are likely to head to the aftermarket, where a five-year-old rig can be bought for maybe one-third the cost of a new one, according to Mikes.
Rising costs across the board are likely to curtail truckers' appetite for credit, anyway. Truckers are already paying more to recruit and retain drivers. In addition, new government safety regulations set to take effect in the fall will increase the industry's compliance costs, while at the same time further thinning the available driver pool.
The improving market outlook has sparked interest in acquisitions, the survey found. In the second-quarter survey, 45 percent of respondents said they would be interested in buying another trucking company in the next 18 months. Of those who expressed interest, 53 percent were classified as larger truckers.
The share of carriers who said they were interested in selling their companies dropped to 20 percent in June from 28 percent in March. Of those, 25 percent who said they would entertain offers were considered smaller carriers; 17 percent were larger companies.
The logistics process automation provider Vanderlande has agreed to acquire Siemens Logistics for $325 million, saying its specialty in providing value-added baggage and cargo handling and digital solutions for airport operations will complement Netherlands-based Vanderlande’s business in the warehousing, airports, and parcel sectors.
According to Vanderlande, the global logistics landscape is undergoing significant change, with increasing demand for efficient, automated systems. Vanderlande, which has a strong presence in airport logistics, said it recognizes the evolving trends in the sector and sees tremendous potential for sustained growth. With passenger travel on the rise and airports investing heavily in modernization, the long-term market outlook for airport automation is highly positive.
To meet that growing demand, the proposed transaction will significantly enhance customer value by providing accelerated access to advanced technologies, improving global presence for better local service, and creating further customer value through synergies in technology development, Vanderlande said.
In a statement, Nuremberg, Germany-based Siemens Logistics said that merging with Vanderlande would “have no operational impact on ongoing or new projects,” but that it would offer its current customers and employees significant development and value-add potential.
"As a distinguished provider of solutions for airport logistics, Siemens Logistics enjoys a first-class reputation in the baggage and air-cargo handling areas. Together with Vanderlande and our committed global teams, we look forward to bringing fresh impetus to the airport industry and to supporting our customers' business with future-oriented technologies," Michael Schneider, CEO of Siemens Logistics, said in a release.
I recently came across a report showing that 86% of CEOs around the world see resiliency problems in their supply chains, and that business leaders are spending more time than ever tackling supply chain-related challenges. Initially I was surprised, thinking that the lessons learned from the Covid-19 pandemic surely prepared industry leaders for just about anything, helping to bake risk and resiliency planning into corporate strategies for companies of all sizes.
But then I thought about the growing number of issues that can affect supply chains today—more frequent severe weather events, accelerating cybersecurity threats, and the tangle of emerging demands and regulations around decarbonization, to name just a few. The level of potential problems seems to be increasing at lightning speed, making it difficult, if not impossible, to plan for every imaginable scenario.
What is it Mike Tyson said? Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
It has never been more important to be able to pivot and adjust to challenges that can throw you off your game. The report I referenced—the “2024 Supply Chain Barometer” from procurement, supply chain, and sustainability consulting firm Proxima—makes the case for just that. The company surveyed 3,000 CEOs from the United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States and found that the growing complexities in global supply chains necessitate a laser-sharp focus on this area of the business. One example: Rightshoring, which is the process of moving business operations to the best location, means companies are redesigning and reconfiguring their supply chains like never before. The study found that large numbers of CEOs are grappling with the various subsets of rightshoring: 44% said they are planning to or have already undertaken onshoring, for instance; 41% said they are planning to or have undertaken nearshoring; 41% said they are planning to or have undertaken friendshoring; and 35% said they are planning to or have undertaken offshoring.
But that’s not all. CEOs are also struggling to deal with the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and its application to business processes, the potential for abuse and labor rights issues in their supply chains, and a growing number of barriers to their companies’ decarbonization efforts. For instance:
Nearly all of those surveyed (99%) said they are either using or considering the use of AI in their supply chains, with 82% saying they are planning new initiatives this year;
More than 60% said they are concerned about the potential for human or labor rights issues in their supply chains;
And virtually all (99%) said they face barriers to decarbonization, with 30% pointing to the complexity of the work required as the biggest barrier.
Those are big issues to contend with, so it’s no surprise that 96% of the CEOs Proxima surveyed said they are dedicating equal (41%) or more time (55%) to supply chain issues this year than last year. And changing economic conditions are adding to the complexity, according to the report.
“As inflation fell throughout last year, there were glimmers of markets stabilizing,” the authors wrote. “The reality, though, has been that global market dynamics are shifting. With no clear-set position for them to land in, CEOs must continue to navigate their organizations through an ever-changing landscape. Just 4% of CEOs foresee the amount of time spent on supply chain-related topics decreasing in the year ahead.”
Simon Geale, executive vice president and chief procurement officer at Proxima, added some perspective.
“It’s fair to say that the complexities of global supply chains continue to have CEOs around the world scratching their heads,” he wrote. “The results of this year’s Barometer show that business leaders are spending more and more time tackling supply chain challenges, reflecting the multiple challenges to address.”
Perhaps the extra focus on supply chain issues will help organizations improve their ability to roll with the punches and overcome resiliency challenges in the year ahead. Only time will tell.
Investing in artificial intelligence (AI) is a top priority for supply chain leaders as they develop their organization’s technology roadmap, according to data from research and consulting firm Gartner.
AI—including machine learning—and Generative AI (GenAI) ranked as the top two priorities for digital supply chain investments globally among more than 400 supply chain leaders surveyed earlier this year. But key differences apply regionally and by job responsibility, according to the research.
Twenty percent of the survey’s respondents said they are prioritizing investments in traditional AI—which analyzes data, identifies patterns, and makes predictions. Virtual assistants like Siri and Alexa are common examples. Slightly less (17%) said they are prioritizing investments in GenAI, which takes the process a step further by learning patterns and using them to generate text, images, and so forth. OpenAI’s ChatGPT is the most common example.
Despite that overall focus, AI lagged as a priority in Western Europe, where connected industry objectives remain paramount, according to Gartner. The survey also found that business-led roles are much less enthusiastic than their IT counterparts when it comes to prioritizing the technology.
“While enthusiasm for both traditional AI and GenAI remain high on an absolute level within supply chain, the prioritization varies greatly between different roles, geographies, and industries,” Michael Dominy, VP analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice, said in a statement announcing the survey results. “European respondents were more likely to prioritize technologies that align with Industry 4.0 objectives, such as smart manufacturing. In addition to region differences, certain industries prioritize specific use cases, such as robotics or machine learning, which are currently viewed as more pragmatic investments than GenAI.”
The survey also found that:
Twenty-six percent of North American respondents identified AI, including machine learning, as their top priority, compared to 14% of Western Europeans.
Fourteen percent of Western European respondents identified robots in manufacturing as their top choice compared to just 1% of North American respondents.
Geographical variances generally correlated with industry-specific priorities; regions with a higher proportion of manufacturing respondents were less likely to select AI or GenAI as a top digital priority.
Digging deeper into job responsibilities, just 12% of respondents with business-focused roles indicated GenAI as a top priority, compared to 28% of IT roles. The data may indicate that GenAI use cases are perceived as less tangible and directly tied to core supply chain processes, according to Gartner.
“Business-led roles are traditionally more comfortable with prioritizing established technologies, and the survey data suggests that these business-led roles still question whether GenAI can deliver an adequate return on investment,” said Dominy. “However, multiple industries including retail, industrial manufacturers and high-tech manufacturers have already made GenAI their top investment priority.”
Regardless of the elected administration, the future likely holds significant changes for trade, taxes, and regulatory compliance. As a result, it’s crucial that U.S. businesses avoid making decisions contingent on election outcomes, and instead focus on resilience, agility, and growth, according to California-based Propel, which provides a product value management (PVM) platform for manufacturing, medical device, and consumer electronics industries.
“Now is not the time to wait for the dust to settle,” Ross Meyercord, CEO of Propel, said in a release. “Companies should approach this election cycle as an opportunity to thrive in the face of constant change by proactively investing in technology and talent that keeps them nimble. Businesses always need to be prepared for changing tariffs, taxes, or geopolitical tensions that lead to unexpected interruptions – that’s just the new normal.”
In Propel’s analysis, a Trump administration would bring a continuation of corporate tax cuts intended to bolster American manufacturing. However, Trump’s suggestion for spiraling tariffs may benefit certain industries, but would drive up costs for businesses reliant on global supply chains.
In contrast, a Harris administration would likely continue the current push for regulatory reforms that support sectors like AI, digital assets, and manufacturing while protecting consumer rights. Harris would also likely prioritize strategic investments in new technologies and provide tax incentives to promote growth in underserved areas.
And regardless of the new administration, the real challenge will come from a potentially divided Congress, which could impact everything from trade negotiations to tax policies, Propel said.
“The election outcome is less material for businesses,” Meyercord said. “What is important is quickly adapting to shifting policies or disruptions that address ‘what if’ scenarios and having the ability to pivot your strategy. A responsive manufacturing sector will have a significant impact on the broader economy, driving growth and favorably influencing GDP. One thing is clear: the only certainty is change.”
An overwhelming majority (81%) of shoppers do not plan to increase their holiday spend this year over last year, revealing a significant disconnect between retail marketers and shoppers in the weeks before peak season, according to online shopping platform provider Rakuten.
That result flies in the face of high confidence levels from retailers who have been delaying their marketing spend, as 79% of marketers are optimistic they will reach holiday sales objectives, and 65% are timing their spend as late as November.
However, consumers are nervous about supply chain disruptions. Almost half (42%) of shoppers have started their shopping early to avoid shipping delays, while 32% plan to do more shopping in-store to avoid potential delays. The results come from a survey conducted online within the U.S. by The Harris Poll on behalf of Rakuten from Sept. 5 – Sept. 9 , among 2,100 consumers aged 18 and older and 101 retail marketers.
"There's a clear disconnect between marketer perception and consumer realities, but this presents a unique opportunity for retailers to capitalize on the shortcomings of their competition," said Julie Van Ullen, Chief Revenue Officer at Rakuten Rewards. "As shoppers plan to spend less overall, there become fewer opportunities for retailers. This makes it evermore important for retailers to invest in strategies that set them apart throughout the entire holiday season.”
Three reasons behind the diverging views are:
Inflated prices. Even with softening inflation rates, nearly half (46%) of shoppers report that it will have the greatest impact on their holiday shopping strategy. Conversely, only 20% of marketers believe that to be true.
Election nerves. Shoppers anticipate that the upcoming election will have an impact on inflation, with 57% believing it will increase.
Weak brand loyalty. A majority of marketers (98%) believe shoppers will remain loyal to brands, but fully 42% of shoppers indicate they will prioritize finding the lowest prices by trading down to lower-quality brands and products for more affordable alternatives.
"Loyalty is up for grabs this holiday season, and success for retailers will hinge on offering value beyond just reduced prices," Julie Van Ullen, Chief Revenue Officer at Rakuten Rewards, said in a release. "Our research revealed that shopper concern extends beyond just price, and retailers will need to address those concerns with comprehensive deals that include several table-stake incentives. Incentives like free shipping, buy now pay later services, and elevated Cash Back will be important for maintaining a loyal shopper base."